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ES EOD 24Jun2009
June 24th, 2009at 11:38 pm
Today pushed poor Elliott to his extremes. Typical Fed day. Some day I will take my own advice and take Fed days off. I do love to scalp those wild swings though. As for the direction of the market in the ST, I can only say what I will be looking at tomorrow or tonight during Globex. If you remember the big picture on my daily chart, I believe we are trying to finish Wave A of W4. Is it finished yet or does it have a little bit more to go on the downside? That is my dilemma. If we break out of the regression channel tomorrow, I assume we are in Wave B of the daily W4, and that should be a Zig Zag up to 925′ish as a typical target. That’s the best I can do forecasting because these Waves can be counted a few ways that would allow for a big up move or a smaller down move. Unless you are a scalper, I would recommend watching the market and letting it declare itself. If it breaks through the regression channel, it will probably retest for a good entry point. If it fails at the channel, you will just have to wait for a continuation trade ~ whatever method you use. Here are two charts to show a longer and shorter term perspective.
Categories: Markets
Mortie,
Need to try out this Gravater I just signed up for. But this gives me a chance to talk about the unfolding Wave4. Given that the range is approximately SPY 96-88. Also I would expect the wave 4 to end mid to Late July. So basically range trading SPY 96-88 from here until at least mid july.
Placebo, that is my priority view also. I believe we probably finished Wave A and are in Wave B on the daily chart. I believe this is a W4 correction that will get us to new highs in a W4 after Wave B and Wave C. Please keep scrutinizing my posts, I love the feedback.
Hi Mortie,
Taking a longer term view on the SPY daily. From memory you have the Wave 2 up (83.42-77.96=5.50). Now if the wave 4 correction is going match the wave 2 correction (ie it will correct about 5.50 points). Then with the wave 3 top(95.51) subtract 5.50 we get SPY 90 for a wave 4 bottom. Close enough to the actual SPY 84 bottom we have so far.
That last wave 5 of the big wave A(ES923-884)correction had an extended 266% wave3(ES953.25-884.75) which I believe would account for a very short wave 5(ES894-884). Amounting to almost a double bottom catching the people waiting for a clear Wave of guard.
What does this all add up to? I believe we have finished Wave A down and are now in Wave B up.
Thank you for your charts mortie
mortie,
thanks for ES charts. yesterday was a bit of surprise to me, never thought we would get that high but fully understand it now. FED days are unpredictable. Note we did not stay there.