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MortiES' EOD 25Jun2009

Written by Mortie
June 25th, 2009at 9:37 pm

My EOD is not a lot different than my intraday update. As per the update, the ellipse study intercepted the market just .75 short of the 50% retrace level and the 100% level where Wave A=Wave C. The market then corrected a little and is IMO working its way around the ellipse. I noted that this is common when the market wants to go higher. I believe we may have 8-10 more points to the upside before a nice shorting opportunity for Wave C of the daily W4 that I still think is in progress. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it! ~ until Ms. ES proves me wrong. I will be posting exclusively on this site from now on as EW’ers have been told that their analysis is no longer welcome on Ace Traders. Not a problem. I wish Nandu well with his new format and structure. I will try to post an EOD analysis every day, and I will throw in an intraday update if I am seeing something relevant. 

es-eod-25jun2009

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  1. Placebo Placebo says:
    June 26, 2009 at 4:29 pm

    Hi Humbledukes,
    Sorry I didn’t see your entry before. My play didn’t work out all that great, nevermind. Personally I’am still a little hesitant here.

    Reply
  2. Placebo Placebo says:
    June 26, 2009 at 10:14 am

    That enough for me out at ES910

    Reply
  3. MrTrader MrTrader says:
    June 26, 2009 at 10:13 am

    Thanks!

    Reply
  4. Placebo Placebo says:
    June 26, 2009 at 10:02 am

    Interesting tug-of-war NQ wants to go up but my old friend ES wants to go down. I’am banking on NQ winning

    Reply
  5. HumbleDukes HumbleDukes says:
    June 26, 2009 at 9:46 am

    Good call Placebo. I am looking for this move to add a short position on ES. I will add 1 at 916.75 and assess. The dollar weakness has me a little confused at this point, but I think it was driven by the savings numbers this morn. Thoughts?

    Mortie . . . thanks for the updates. Regards

    Reply
  6. Placebo Placebo says:
    June 26, 2009 at 9:35 am

    Going to give it a shot. Long ES912 aiming for ES920 tight stops

    Reply
  7. Placebo Placebo says:
    June 26, 2009 at 9:23 am

    Well here we are at my target zone ES 911.5-909.5. But I’am completely lost in this wave structure and can’t really make it fit without changing some of my fundamental assumptions.That assumed Wave B(ES909.5-917.75?) really threw me. The wave structure I posted first seems to fit better than my “new superduper what was I thinking” revision.
    That would mean that Wave 4 bottomed 909.50 and this has been a small Wave 5 without much upside. Certainly this would seemed to be an awefully sharp Wave C(ES919-910?).In any case I’am standing aside for now.

    Reply
  8. Mortie Mortie says:
    June 26, 2009 at 8:15 am

    Mr. Trader ~ I look at where the market is right now and look for previous high and low swings that might be relevant. I then just experiment with those swings until an ellipse study looks promising and about to intercept the market at a point consistent with my wave count.

    Reply
  9. Placebo Placebo says:
    June 26, 2009 at 8:09 am

    Mortie,
    Looking at my ES charts again. What was I thinking Wave 5 hasn’t started yet. I believe we are still in Wave 4. My new count for Wave 4 would be Wave A(ES917.75-909.5), Wave B(ES909.5-917.75) and Wave C(ES917.75-?). So I”ll be looking for the wave 4 bottom in the ES911.5-909.5 area.

    Reply
  10. rockybalboa rockybalboa says:
    June 26, 2009 at 7:56 am

    Hi Mortie,

    Thanks a lot for your reply. I definately appreciate it very much. I went to acetraders only because of your recommendation here at bostonwealth a few days back. And I saw you post your trade for the long at 892. I have also seen you post your trades on xtrends, and the market made you look good each time I thought.

    So for whatever it is worth, I would be looking forward to seeing you post your trades when you buy or sell, like Carlfutia does. Win or lose…no stress. I think you are a winner, and I myself a student of EW (still learnings), would have the confidence to place some trades if I saw you placing them with stop-losses.

    Thanks for all the good work.

    Cheers

    -Rocky

    Reply
  11. SteveInChicago SteveInChicago says:
    June 26, 2009 at 12:31 am

    Thanks for the update. I’m seeing the same thing. In addition to the Fib clusters you drew, I also like to add a set of retracements for the relationship between Wave 5 of C and Wave 1 of C. The most common relationship is for Wave 5 to either be equal to wave 1 or equal to .618 of Wave 1.

    If we draw this (and if the wave 4 stops at 909), the .618 value yields a top at 918.5, and the level with wave 5 = wave 1 yields 924.25, which are both very close to the values you labeled.

    It’s hard to count anything into the Globex session, but it looks like wave 4 is forming a flat, so we’ll have to see where it ends. Part of me really just wants to put in sell orders at 918 and 924 and call it a night.

    Reply
  12. Placebo Placebo says:
    June 25, 2009 at 11:41 pm

    Mortie,
    Thanks for the update. Looking at the 60min ES today I had given up trying to count the waves. But to my amazement when I went into the smaller time frame there it was a clear wave structure for all the world to see.
    Anyway I agree with your outlook, not surprising since I follow your posts so closely. I think we have done a wave 1 of 5 (ES909-917). I’am expecting the wave2 of 5 to bottom sometime over night around the ES 912 level. Now the question is should stay up and try to catch the bottom or should I get some sleep?

    Reply
  13. MrTrader MrTrader says:
    June 25, 2009 at 11:40 pm

    Sounds like Nandu’s loss. Would love to know what price points you used to generate the ellipses – I use Wave59 which has the GET’s ellipse function built-in. Thanks for your posts!

    Reply
  14. mortie mortie says:
    June 25, 2009 at 11:29 pm

    Rocky, I was just going to correct the chart I did today where I said I took the trade at 902 rather than 892. Thanks for the confirmation. I only posted that trade because although there was a chance of a small move down, I really felt like Wave A of daily W4 was complete and this was the start of Wave B. The ellipse study gave me the confidence for the trade, plus I wanted to show which way I thought the market was headed by putting my money where my mouth was. I also thought it would be a good opportunity to show off GET’s ellipse study which is worth the price of the program alone. I’m not going to go into the business of calling trades all the time for many reasons. One is stress! This is supposed to be fun and I’ll stop doing it when it ceases to be fun. Ace Trader is going to be a closed blog and I am sure I won’t get an invitation because Nandu feels EW is nonsense. This site will remain a diverse site for traders and investors. Ben doesn’t have a problem sharing the spotlight. You’re welcome here anytime. We want to develop an inclusive rather than exclusive atmosphere.

    Reply
  15. rockybalboa rockybalboa says:
    June 25, 2009 at 10:56 pm

    Hey Mortie…

    I always check your blog daily and study your charts. Your calls are amazing more than 90% of the time.

    Can you kindly also, post your trades on this blog, when you take a long/short position, like the ES 892 long you posted on Acetraders blog today.

    Thanks for the good work.

    Regards

    Reply
  16. chaugner chaugner says:
    June 25, 2009 at 10:56 pm

    Thx for the update as always =)

    Reply

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