Value of Perfect Information

another update on the GOOG.

Bounced from 405 nicely as I expected.

I do think there is a very strong chance that 447 is at the least a swing top. (reiternation)

IMO, goog will see 381 before 450. Timeline target is over over the next 8 trading days, starting on Wed, 1 July.

Watching the tape: the way it has been trading here over the past 3 weeks, the $NDX has been carrying it. (usually it is GOOG that helps to carry the index!) Ever since that MSFT bing news, it’s been lagging here big time, and now at the very very end of the qtr it gets a lil sympathy love again (window dressing) 

Speculation is just that, but BING is going to cut into GOOGLE. (How much? no one knows!) But market share will (is) being taken.

Notice how msft is up like 10% in the past 2-3 weeks and goog is flat over that time?

The big giant looks very tired here to me, and the only reason i think it is holding up here, is again the window dressing. (funds not selling off the overperformers for the qtr yet).

There are some stocks to me by looking at the tape that the funds look like they are showing signs they want to lighten up a little bit on. (TIN and GMCR are 2 i think are complete toast in july, fwiw….)
 
I am Looking for the selling to start Wed. (1 July)

Besides “window dressing” being officially over, I think we sell off pretty hard on WED. Watching how BLK and GE were reacting in the A/H from that news. (they were not reacting at all)….So that makes me lean more to the PPIP stuff wed will be a sell the news. Few other pyschological reasons too.

Lately we have been sprinkled w/ so much “green shoots”, better than expected, etc etc. I have a strong hunch that the market does not want to be reminded of PPIP. (to me it just brings thoughts of “oh yea the banks, they need to be fixed, hey lets talk about TODAY, not that old mess!”) It’s a reminder of things. I don’t have a crystal ball, so we shall see. But I feel pretty strongly that PPIP wed will be a sell the news. (especially if we push up into it)

I also think goog has an ABOVE average chance to be green for tommorow (30 June: Window dressing). Will be looking to use tomorrow as the puts entry.

The “MAJOR” sell signal will be to me when the rsi breaks down from the weekly support trend (see the original post, links are below the chart)

(Here are my past 2 posts on GOOG, links below)

http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/06/23/goog-update/

http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/06/21/goog-watch-weekly-chart/

Categories: Charts , Markets