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MortiES' EOD 29Jun2009
June 29th, 2009at 7:48 pm
Today proved the statement that “the market will often do what you expect, but in the most unexpected way“. In my intraday update I was working on my post when the market did what I was expecting, so I made the post for educational purposes. I personally took a long based on an ellipse (they are great!) and the 62% retracement. I felt that a lot of buying should come in at that level from the “buy-on-a-dip” crowd. When the market stalled after a vertical move, I got out because after moves like that, if they are real, the market consolidates a “long time!” The chart is pretty self-explanatory, but I think 927′ish is still in play. The market, by no means, needs to get there and I’ve missed big turns waiting for those last 2 or 3 points I was expecting. As you’ll see on the chart, ES has met all the necessary typical criteria to reverse right now.
Just a note to those who make comments on my posts. I really enjoy the dialogue, but don’t think I am ignoring you if I don’t get right back. I have a busy day job and this is really meant to be a diversion, although I love the challenge of analysis and trading, and the camaraderie at BWM. I’ll catch up at night the best I can.
Categories: Markets
That should be
Wave 3 ES 911.50- 924
ofcoarse
By my count the last Wave 5 of 5 is
Wave 1 ES907.25-918.75
Wave 2 ES 911.50-924
Wave 5 ES 919.75-926
That last wave 5 of 5 was a tough one to catch. In any case it escaped me in the overnight session.
This is very much what I thought the start of Wave C of 4 down would look like. We should get some nice entries later in the day
If we gap up tomorrow, there is an 80+ % chance (historically back-tested by TheGapGuy) that the gap is filled by EOD according to he price action of the past 5 days.
Moreover, the CPC action has triggered Cobra’s firework setup as per his last post – and this appears to be a pretty reliable indicator for the past several months – which suggests more upside before any downside.
I formally acquainted myself with the ellipse tool today thanks mostly to you and you’re absolutely right about the patience and discipline that it helps to instill as it gives you a time/price ballpark to work with – this is helping me tremendously at least with choosing strike and expiration month for my spreads – hope it works out as beautifully as I’m imagining (hopefully not hallucinating) it will