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MortiES' Top Secret Analysis for Sunday & Monday 4Jul2009
July 4th, 2009at 11:53 pm
This analysis is a little difficult to do because of the extended Globex session. It will be interesting to see what the market will do with the Globex market action and it will be interesting to see where Globex will leave us for the regular session on Monday. I may have more to say before the opening on Monday. Again, the chart is annotated and Ill not repeat. Compare this 30 min. chart with my previous posts to be sure you understand where we are in the larger wave counts. I get lost sometimes in my own chart and have to revisit a chart that shows the big picture. Globex is in a W4 and they are difficult to trade because they can wear you out, and just after you throw in the towel, they make their big move. Comments are appreciated and be sure to click on the chart to see a larger version.
Categories: Markets
Mortie
Can you post your twitter link?
Thanks
Thank you Mortie.
Searchgr: I think you meant “from the beginning of wave 1″, but as I told you I am an irreverent trader. I find that the 24% (23.6%) retracement is an acceptable target in two instances IME. 1: As a W4 retrace of W1-3 and 2: As a retrace of an extended W3. In this case, it is really difficult to say where W3 began, much like the move up on the daily chart from 6Mar. Therefore I used W1-3 to draw the retrace and ES didn’t quite get to the 23.6% level. That is just experience that is telling me this and no hard-and-fast rule. Also, the pattern of the W4 is an ABC as I have indicated, but is it the ABC of W4 or of Wave A of W4? The short-term ellipse often catches Wave A of W4. I find that a W4 is usually much simpler on a daily chart ~ i.e. a simple ABC. Once I drill down to a lower time frame, the W4 corrections are more often complex. The most common and “simple” complex pattern I see is where (in a W4 up) the market rallies with an ABC pattern, then retraces about 62% sharply and reverses to go 5 waves higher. The initial ABC rally would be WaveA, with a sharp WaveB correction (nice trade!?), and ending with a 5 wave WaveC. Of course, keep in mind that I am talking about the highest probability events or most typical in my experience, and not chiseled-in-stone rules.
Morti,
I think that you should use the length of wave 3 i/o the length from the beginning to wave 3.
From a probability and quant perspective, Frank over at http://www.tradingtheodds.com/ suggests the edge on Monday will be in the direction of the gap (assuming there is one)