Value of Perfect Information

The Spin Machine

As you all or may or may not know this morning at 8:30 Eastern time a semi key weekly number was released with a bit of spin attached, initial jobless claims. The number was 565,000 in the week ended July 4 from 617,000 the prior week. This number was skewed by the shortened week holiday week of last, analysts were expecting claims of 604,000. Obviously the number should be lower because lots of people get fired or let go on Friday’s thus they will subsequently file for unemployment insurance at nearly the same time. This number sent futures up and the specifically the SPDRS up about a buck. My problem with this number is the media grabs hold of numbers like these and spins the living crap out of it. Talking about how things are recovering yada yada, DO THEY NOT REMEMBER the monthly jobs data for June which was nearly 100k more than May? Apparently not, CNBC has a short memory. The market has fallen over 10% the last few weeks, WHY? because market participants realize this rally was a dead cat bounce fueled by the biggest pump and dump campaign by the mainstream business media ever. As you can see i am frustrated but what might surprise you is i am not a “perma bear” though i base my market theory on what i see from the tape and historical data, what i seeis not recovery. Everything i have analysed still shows no signs of improvement, only meager signals. As i type this the SPY’s are up Oil is up, UNG is up, retailers are up. Target reported same store sales down 6% from June, target is HUGE. Alcoa beat expectations but its revenue was down 450,000,000$, aluminum smelting is extremely ineffient and costly. Most middle class Americans shop at target, and they are the ones who fuel this economy. Get a grip. I plan to fade this gap up if the opportunity exists intraday. Hedge Accordingly

Tags: AA, TGT

Categories: Commentary , Exclusive , Markets