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MortiES' Big Call 9Jul2009

Written by Mortie
July 9th, 2009at 8:52 pm

I may be wrong, but I think that Wave 4 is over and we are now in W5 and headed for new highs. I have the explanation on the chart so I won’t repeat it here.

es-w4-over-9-jul2009

Categories: Markets

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13 Responses to “MortiES' Big Call 9Jul2009”

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  1. Erik Erik says:
    July 10, 2009 at 6:36 pm

    We shall see. I think the higher probability is that P2 has already ended at 956, and we have already had the wave 1 of P3 (as the moves down in the LAST week were pretty impulsive)…we will find out next week, If the financials BLOW OUT the WATER, then have to see how the market reacts. See i think for the brokers (gs) that most people expect a blowout, and its mostly baked in. Same w/ cults like goog….i think the best is mostly baked in here….jmo

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  2. Mortie Mortie says:
    July 10, 2009 at 10:14 am

    Great question Erik! If this is P2 or some sort of corrective move, the same thing is going on as with the W4 that we just went through on the daily. This must mean that ES is in Wave A of W2 of the P2 or whatever corrective wave we are talking about. So after this impulsive move finishes (assuming I’m right about the count) we should see an ABC Wave B followed by new highs in a 5 wave Wave C.

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  3. Boston Wealth Management, LLC - An Investment Advisory Firm » Blog Archive » Pre Market TAO and Day Trade Journal Fri 7-10-09 Boston Wealth Management, LLC - An Investment Advisory Firm » Blog Archive » Pre Market TAO and Day Trade Journal Fri 7-10-09 says:
    July 10, 2009 at 9:29 am

    [...] Futures overnight traded down 879 to 870 Morties W4 Bottom US Dollar is up 10 yr Treasury / up gold / crude/ nat gas / down Asia / Euro stk [...]

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  4. Erik Erik says:
    July 10, 2009 at 8:33 am

    Here are the 2 ewt’s that i follow alot. I dont know if you like to bounce counts/formations off w/ others Mortie…I see that most of you (elliott wave principle traders) do:

    http://kennystechnicalanalysisblog.blogspot.com/

    http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/

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  5. Erik Erik says:
    July 10, 2009 at 8:27 am

    Mortie,

    If this is P2, why is it labeled a 5 wave series?

    I thought that corrective waves are ABC, and only the impulsive waves are 5 counts?

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  6. searchgr searchgr says:
    July 10, 2009 at 5:27 am

    Mortie, check the daily bchart of the Germany Xetra DAX :)

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  7. Mortie Mortie says:
    July 10, 2009 at 4:26 am

    Searchgr ~ I think you meant is Wave C equal to Wave A. Wave C does not equal Wave A. It’s a little short, but IMO pattern takes precedence. Good find on the Composite Index. These indices may not be equal quantitatively, but they usually are qualitatively. That is a supportive finding for my call of an end of W4.

    Placebo ~ the GET software has no problem with the time factor. Corrections can be deep and short, shallow and long or anything in between. W4′s are basically profit taking waves and they can get their work done mostly through price or mostly through time. If you use the low of 30Mar as W2 and draw an ellipse study, it catches the market in time and price perfectly to support this as the end of W4. Wave C of daily W4 simply needed enough time to complete its impulsive pattern and it seems to have done that unless it extends. The divergence may keep that from happening.

    Erik ~ I have two major targets if this is the end of W4. 1045.55 and 1157 seem the most likely candidates with 1045′ish being my top pick. Once W5 starts to mature, we can pinpoint the end better. And once W5 nears its terminus, we should be able to really zero in. I will probably be talking about W5 of W5 of W5 of daily W5 or some such “drill-down” when we get near the end. That is the strength of EW in minimizing capital exposure.

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  8. Placebo Placebo says:
    July 10, 2009 at 3:16 am

    Interesting post Mortie.I believe we are close price wise. Much below SPY 86.85 and I’ll have to rethink the whole situation. However time wise I think this is a little short for a Wave 4. I think the wave 4 will bottom mid to late July. I’ll be particular watchful around OPEX July 17th.
    As you say the market decides. When the Wave 5 gets underway it should be obvious. If I have to scramble to get onboard well then I’ll be a scrambling.

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  9. searchgr searchgr says:
    July 10, 2009 at 2:10 am

    My target is 1000 – 1050 (0.618 of A) but first i’m waiting for a confirmation that the B wave has been finished.

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  10. Erik Erik says:
    July 10, 2009 at 1:51 am

    1084?

    what urs TOP spx P2 final target estimate?

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  11. searchgr searchgr says:
    July 10, 2009 at 1:51 am

    Mortie,

    Check Nasdaq. I think that the picture is clearer.

    comp.gif

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  12. searchgr searchgr says:
    July 10, 2009 at 1:27 am

    Is wave A = wave B ?

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  13. miramarbeach miramarbeach says:
    July 9, 2009 at 9:15 pm

    http://www.screencast.com/users/jeffreyb_30319/folders/Jing/media/5e36bd02-f7c5-446e-8f57-baffc851482c

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