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MortiES' Putting $ Where Mouth Is! 10Jul2009
July 10th, 2009at 12:21 pm
A quick post of a trade that I hope to ride for a while. If I get stopped out, I won’t be a happy camper! I don’t usually post trades, but this is to make a point that you can trade an opinion if the risk/reward is excellent. Because I made the statement that I thought daily W4 was over at 865.25, I wanted to demonstrate my conviction of that opinion. Don’t copy this trade unless it’s your opinion also after doing your homework. I get stopped out all the time!
Categories: Markets
Walsh ~ I just saw your response. My W1 is Kenny’s Wave (a) which he identifies as a “classic impulse wave”. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/SltuqvOrXuI/AAAAAAAABRE/I6-LIBduON0/s1600-h/bkx1min.png
He does not call my W1 a Zig-Zag. It is the “5″ of the 5,3,5 he sees unfolding. Look more carefully at what I’m calling W1 and you’ll see the confusion.
Nice trade Mortie!
Hi,
It’s way past my bed time and I need to be up in 4 hours.
I have been doing this for quite some time (well more than 10 years) and I also rarely disagree with Kenny’s count so I’ll put a link to his chart as to why I think your “1″ is a ZZ (5-3-5).
http://kennystechnicalanalysisblog.blogspot.com/
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/SlolUb88iuI/AAAAAAAABQk/oKYyUVKgNTs/s1600-h/SPX1minflat.png
Good luck…trading against computers at Goveernment Sachs is not what this is supposed to be about.
Walsh
[...] To give some context, this comment was regarding my labeling of the move from what I am calling the end of W4 as a W1. Since W1 cannot be a corrective wave, the comment was that this wave had a zero % chance of being a Wave 1 because it was not impulsive and was clearly corrective. Here’s the actual post and my reply which is being posted here so my chart can be enlarged better. walsh927 said here: http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/10/morties-putting-where-mouth-is-10jul2009/ [...]
Walsh ~ I am going to answer this as a post so that my chart can be seen better. So look for my response as a new post. I think that this is a good educational point for the newbies to EW. It shows that there can be differences in counts. Please feel free to post a chart to substantiate and refute my reply. This is good stuff! It’s when we bounce our ideas off each other that we mutually learn so I appreciate your response. It’s good to get challenged.
Assuming your placing an Elliott Wave count on the rally from 4, that which you have labeled a wave “1″ it is incorrect. Breaking that wave down it is corrective. There is ZERO chance that it is a 5. The odds favor, at this time, that it is wave A of a triangle.
walsh927
Searchgr ~ I find them equally useful and consult those plus 1 and 5 min. all the time. I find those time frames the best for timing trades using moving averages (MA’s) because they are the time frames most traders seem to use. I also use the 3 min. and 13 min. for special circumstances. When doing an Elliott analysis a good view of the wave I’m studying is critical. I like it to fill most of the chart, so I use whatever time frame that compresses or expands the wave for the best perspective. Elliott wave counts will change with a change in time frames. That’s where art plays a role in analysis. That really is a great question. When I actually want to place a trade, I always drill down to the 1 or 3 to see where we are on the micro-wiggles count. That’s the key to my getting many of my trade calls within a few points of a reversal.
One last point on time frames while I’m at it. Once a daily candle has been formed, I respect that as a trend. That doesn’t mean the market won’t form a doji or some other candle like a hammer, but those are lower probability IMO than a nice looking full candle. The lower time frame structure has to be compelling for me to disregard the daily candle.
Which time frame do you think is the best?
15 min – 30 min or 60 min?
Congratulations!
Your looking ok to me … so the 1 to 2 wave is a zig zag extended abc down ? the next wave should be wave 3 impulse?