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TBT Going up on a Wave 5?
July 13th, 2009at 9:49 pm
Today I purchased some August 48 calls on TBT based on this chart of mine (up about 13% in one day). I like that it appears to be at the bottom of a channel.
(click on image for full size)
Additionally, it seems like it TBT is set up for a Wave 5 up. But I must warn you, I am an Elliott wave noob! I know there are more experienced Elliott wave users here, so if you have the time, I would enjoy a critique of this chart.
Tags: TBT
Categories: Charts , Smart/dumb money
Well done – I just did an updated post on TBT (7/20/09) and it looks like although the EW outlook may have not been ideal, you chose an excellent support zone for at least a quick bounce
I sold those calls once they gained 50%. Booyah!
Thanks, looks like I have some more learning to do!
Hi Doug,
Looks like what you have is a big ABC there, the A where your I is, the B where your II is, and the C where your III is. EW ABCs represent a changes in direction, not necessarily bad for your position but note your MAs are crossing. I added a chart.Note the EW count and that the trend line has been pierced, not good IMO. But again, this is a WEEK chart so therefore the price can really range. I did not put a trend line on the right hand side, but visualize one there. Very telling. Keep a close eye on this one and good luck with your position.
w2 never retraces more than 100% of W1
w3 is never the shortest wave
w4 never enters the price territory of w1
It looks like the price action violates the w4/w1 rule – invalidating the count you have on the chart. I made this noob EW faux-pa many times in my first few EW attempts.
Hope this helps