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MortiES' Big Picture #2 ~ Better Scenario?!

Written by Mortie
July 19th, 2009at 9:15 am

Here is the second “Big Picture” for the Stock Market scenario I promised my friends today. Most of my comments are on the eSignal chart so you can visualize what I am saying. I think I like this scenario even better than the first for ES-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ES). It seems to be more in line with the mood of this market right now. It is advancing in the face of horrible economic news and predictions of doom and gloom. Climbing the Wall of Worry is not unusual behavior for the markets.

The other reason I had problems with my first scenario is that in order for ES to hit the green zones on that chart. they would have to have pretty sharp moves that felt a little strained to me. If I had to judge the mood of the market right now, I would be surprised to see that volatility this summer. But technically, it is a possibility.

Realize that these are only possibilities to think about, and as such are neither right or wrong. At this stage, nobody can can make an authoritative pronouncement on what the market is going to do. That’s not what we do in technical analysis. We look at possibilities and try to rank them in order to give us an edge in trading. Feedback is welcome. And I’d like to know what others are seeing long term. Vote on my first and second scenario or give me your own. I’m interested in other perspectives. That’s what we do at Boston Wealth Management LLC. Diversity is welcome. This is a network of traders. A net is stronger than the sum total of the strings making it up, and so should we be. Once again, I’m incognito on this post.

 

ES BigPicture2 19Jul2009

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Categories: Charts ,Exclusive ,Markets

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9 Responses to “MortiES' Big Picture #2 ~ Better Scenario?!”

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  1. MrTrader MrTrader says:
    July 23, 2009 at 7:38 pm

    @bill

    Thanks for the breakdown

    Reply
  2. bill bill says:
    July 21, 2009 at 12:48 am

    @MrTrader

    sorry to not reply sooner. I forgot to check the thread again and missed your question… answer is:

    1st 3: ‘a’ low 6/17, ‘b’ high 6/19, ‘c’ low 6/23
    x wave high 7/1
    2nd 3: ‘a’ low and ‘b’ high on 7/6 reversal day, ‘c’ low on 7/8

    =Double 3 complex wave 4.

    Reply
  3. MrTrader MrTrader says:
    July 20, 2009 at 3:34 pm

    Thanks Bill – I had not identified the supposed w4 as a complex waveform because my auto-waveform detection filter picked it up as a simple zigzag on a daily timeframe but could you provide a chart of how you think it is a double three?

    spxzz.png

    Reply
  4. Mortie Mortie says:
    July 20, 2009 at 4:23 am

    Hey Bill ~ welcome to BWM. We try to have an unbiased approach on this site. We welcome diversity. Hope you stick around, sounds like your wave knowledge will be a welcome addition to this site. We have some pretty good wavers and because I am not always politically correct with my counts, I really appreciate feedback. I hope you will appreciate the quality of traders here. If you are looking for a site without idle chit-chat, you’ve found it. Fujisan just showed up recently and I’m impressed with her comments already.

    To everyone ~ I really appreciate the feedback! Because there is no right or wrong until the market grades our analyses by doing its thing, we can learn a lot from each other by pooling our experience. I thought that scenario #1 would be the favorite of most, but I can’t get #2 out of my head. I’m 60/40 on these scenarios.

    I’ll tell you next year which was 60 ;-)

    Reply
  5. searchgr searchgr says:
    July 20, 2009 at 2:42 am

    So far this scenario is not supported by the volume. I prefer scenario 1.

    Reply
  6. Fujisan Fujisan says:
    July 20, 2009 at 1:06 am

    Thanks for your update, Mortie. I think Scenario 1 seems more likely than Scenario 2. It’s much more pleasing to the eyes and I like the right side = left side match both in time and price (well, in a perfect situation). Typically Aug is a slow month and I don’t see any catalyst which could keep the market up high.

    Keep up your great work. Really enjoy your analysis.

    Reply
  7. bill bill says:
    July 19, 2009 at 11:58 pm

    @MrTrader

    Actually W2 is a simple Zig-Zag whereas W4 is a complex Double 3. This is most readily apparent by the fact that W2 took only a few days to complete while W4 took one month to complete.

    Reply
  8. bill bill says:
    July 19, 2009 at 11:56 pm

    Nice work!

    Good to find a blog with objective unbiased analysis instead of all the biased permabear crap that is so prevalant everywhere else.

    Reply
  9. MrTrader MrTrader says:
    July 19, 2009 at 11:27 pm

    I believe the wave 2/4 simple/complex alternation is only a guideline but it appears that both w2 and w4 on this cart are simple. Although this w5 extension is certainly plausible, I favor the other scenario as it seems as though the consummation of that market trajectory would be much more “painful” and we know the market prefers the path of greatest pain/frustration.

    Thanks Mortie

    Reply

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