Name: Doug

Web Site: http://yesandnotyes.com/blog/

Twitter: yesandnotyes


Posts by Doug:

    Ready to Purchase LVLT Again for a Trade

    Written by Doug
    August 9th, 2009 at 1:22 pm

    A while back I suggested that LVLT was a good trade. Well, it went up and now has come back down again to a level where I think one could purchase some for another trade.

    2009-08-09-lvlt

    As you can see, I think the stock has put in a triple bottom and thus I think it’s unlikely the price will get that low for a fourth time. I am going to purchase some LVLT this Monday and will probably set a stop at around 1.09.

    Position in FPIC Initiated

    Written by Doug
    July 20th, 2009 at 10:22 am

    I just initiated a small position in FPIC, a provider of medical professional liability insurance primarily (catering primarily to Florida). This will probably just be a trade for me, but I feel FPIC has the potential to be a rewarding long-term investment.

    Here are some things that I like about FPIC:

    • P/B ratio is 0.89
    • Insiders own 3.65% of outstanding shares
    • Book value per share has grown at a rate of 7.6% over the past 11 years
    • Combined ratio (underwriting profitability) has remained under 100% since 2001 and has declined since then to 80% — a really good thing!
    • Big repurchaser of their own shares — shares outstanding have decreased from 10.43 million in ‘06 to 7.66 million today
    • Medical professionals will always need insurance!

    Anyways, here is a chart. I like that it seems to have consolidating after it shot up in June.

    2009-07-20-fpic

    If you have any thoughts regarding FPIC as a trade or long-term investment, I would love to hear them!

    [tags]Investing, Insurance, FPIC, Value investing, Trading, Charts[/tags]

    Doesn't Look Like ARO Has Much More Upside

    Written by Doug
    July 15th, 2009 at 8:10 am

    Last week I covered my ARO short that I had been holding for about a month. Yesterday near the close of the day, I reentered a short position. I just don’t see how the stock of a mall-based clothing retailer is going to rise that much more in this environment. With that said, I feel very comfortable being short ARO for many, many months. A good stop price would be $38.

    2009-07-15-aro

    TBT Going up on a Wave 5?

    Written by Doug
    July 13th, 2009 at 9:49 pm

    Today I purchased some August 48 calls on TBT based on this chart of mine (up about 13% in one day). I like that it appears to be at the bottom of a channel.

    (click on image for full size)

    2009-07-13-tbt

    Additionally, it seems like it TBT is set up for a Wave 5 up. But I must warn you, I am an Elliott wave noob! I know there are more experienced Elliott wave users here, so if you have the time, I would enjoy a critique of this chart.

    Looking at SPY With Some Pitchforks

    Written by Doug
    July 7th, 2009 at 10:54 pm

    I’ve had these pitchforks on my SPY charts since the middle of last week. I hope this is helpful or at least sparks some ideas of where the market might be headed. I am still studying for the bar and this might be my last post until August.

    Here is the SPY hourly:

    2009-07-07-spy-hour

    And below is the bigger picture.

    2009-07-07-spy-day

    Judging from the big picture, it might be entirely possible that the SPY will reach 79-80 by September or October, but really, who knows? May your trading and investing be prosperous!

    Follow Me on Twitter for More (Hopefully) Trades Like These

    Written by Doug
    June 11th, 2009 at 4:33 pm

    On June 4, I tweeted about how I thought LVLT, TRMA, and ELOS looked like good buys. A week later here is where they stand in my account. (click the picture)

    2009-06-11-accountstatement

    Small bets for each one, but extremely good returns for a week.

    Denison Mines (DNN)

    Written by Doug
    June 11th, 2009 at 4:28 pm

    Yes, another small mining play. I see a lot of upside potential here. I bet within a year, DNN can at least double in price. I myself have purchased some Jan10 2.5 call options for DNN.

    2009-06-11-dnn

    Update on ARE

    Written by Doug
    June 9th, 2009 at 3:12 pm

    On May 13th I did a post on ARE and how it was a good buy opportunity. Well, since then, it has risen about 33%.

    2009-06-09-are

    Not a bad pick, eh?

    White Mountains Insurance (WTM)

    Written by Doug
    June 6th, 2009 at 8:58 pm

    Here’s a look at what could happen with White Mountains Insurance (WTM). (It’s a large picture, so click for the full size.)

    2009-06-06-wtm

    In the past 60 days, there have been two wedges. As you can see, the stock jumped from the bottom of the wedge to make a new high and begin a second wedge, from which it has jumped up to form what appears to be a third wedge. If what has happened the past two times happens again, I estimate a price target of $256 in a couple weeks’ time.

    Additionally, WTM’s P/B ratio is 0.66, so a price of 256 would give it a P/B ratio of 0.79, which I think is very reasonable.

    UPDATE: Right now is a great low-risk entry for WTM, check out the updated chart.

    2009-06-08-wtm

    Charts and Trade Ideas for CVS, BNI, BAX, NKE (Updated)

    Written by Doug
    May 31st, 2009 at 9:11 pm

    Here are some ideas for trading. All of these are part of the S&P 100 index.

    Here’s a daily chart for Nike (NKE).

    2009-05-31-nke

    I see some resistance for Nike in the 57 area. Also, despite a good upswing volume is less than what it was when it made its last high in December. I think NKE is good for a short.

    Here’s a weekly chart for Baxter International (BAX).

    2009-05-31-bax

    I see a base of support at around 48. This chart tells me to get long BAX and have a stop somewhere between 47 and 48.

    This is a weekly chart of Burlington Northern (BNI).

    2009-05-31-bni

    With BNI, what used to be support should probably now act as resistance. I would short BNI with a stop around 74.

    And the last chart is a weekly of CVS (CVS).

    2009-05-31-cvs

    This chart suggests that it might be good to get long with a stop at or right below 29.

    I have nothing else beyond these general observations. These observations may be right or wrong depending on what you choose to do with them.

    UPDATE: These two charts come straight from Boston Wealth Management. BWM would not short the following stocks until the top of the channels as indicated in the charts. I would certainly take heed of this advice.

    The following chart is for NKE.

    nke

    The following chart is for BNI.

    bni