Written by Yury
November 19th, 2009 at 8:47 pm
Well,
everyone in the EW blog world has identified this nice triangle as wave iv, and was looking for a higher wave v to enter short or cover longs. Even EWI posted yesterday a nice chart with the final wave v approach, but it was just too perfect to be true. Instead of to reach long-waited target of 1121 in /ES, which was only ca. 10 points away, we dropped almost 25 points into the north, broke all trend-lines down and made the global picture again unreal complex.
Why I thing it is complex – because:
- We really don’t know where we are now – is this end of the trend up, aka P2 is over, or is this just some-kind of wave iv, or a wave B
- Tomorrow is OPEX and market has not confessed its direction to me, which means for me we have good chance to go up or down next 20-25 pts.
- It is obvious that on OPEX day market is very volatile
In reality I don’t know the direction yet. But what I know are the high OI levels in SPX (here is the chart).
Puts Levels:
- 1090
- 1050
Calls Levels:
- 1100
- 1130
My EW Scenario
I really don’t thing yet we have topped yet. But if even – I don’t mind. Based on SPX analysis the move up is very obvious over – wave (a). Now we should be in the wave (b) or (i). Any move higher to 1110 will reactivate the (v) wave. Until this is not the case – I see the running wave (b), where we have or now finishing the a wave of it. For tomorrow I marked the most important OI levels – 1090-1100. This is from my understanding the range where the market will be tomorrow, with a final touch-down into the b.
What will be next – time will tell us.
Please visit our blog for more updates: http://epiccallonfate.blogspot.com/
Dr. Livesey
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Written by Yury
November 18th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
Today /ES was not very kind to us by the morning up-move, which ended at 1110.75. First I was thinking that the last wave (v) is under way and was happy about my longs. But after the drop down I was not sure about the next up.
For the last move is see now several possibilities:
- an i-ii-iii-iv-v impulsive move up (which already began)
- (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) EDT move up, if so we should be in the wave (3) right now
- we are still in the wave (iv), which is LDT diagonal and can chop again tomorrow in this area with a low at 1103.85 in cash, and after jump into the final (v)
But now it is more clear that this up-and-down today belongs to the wave (iv), which means tomorrow or on Friday (OPEX day) we should see the development of the final wave (v) of [v] of (C/A/v) of (I still don’t know where we really are – P2, IV or whatever it is). After the wave [v] is over, we should retrace first into the level of wave [iv], which is around 1085 cash and than into the 1029 cash. After we need to see the structure of the move to understand what really it is.
I will leave you with the chart of my 5 min count.
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Written by Yury
November 16th, 2009 at 11:38 pm
I am not really sure, how this market will move forward, but everyone is feeling that we are not far away from the top.
For tomorrow the most important area in SPX is 1097.49. If it breaks before any significant move into the higher level, I would rather look for shorts as for longs. Based on my count we should be in the wave (iii) of [v]. Any push lower to the blue line will probably identify the beginning of the next down-trend. In 5 min. RSI shows negative divergence. The significant area for the up-trend is 50% retracement at 1121.44 from the 666.xx low.
Here is also a 60 min picture of my SPX count:
P.S. VIX hasn’t confirmed this up move and lost only 2.01%.
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Written by Yury
November 7th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
I made two charts of my global view of the SPX moves. I don’t really belive in Prechters P2 disaster scenario – Prechters see SPX at 300 or lower – this is equal to world war/epidemic or financial collapse. Of course we are talking all the time about this, and it getting happen – (common unemployment >10% now, prime by 12% default, sub-prime by 40%) – untill USA can hold AAA Rating (all rating agencies are US companies) – this is more P4 as P2 to me.
But back to our big-picture and charts. I was looking on various sites about still running w5. This is not possible, based on EW. Why? (see my chart), because of the broken trend-line (0-b’ line), which confirms that the previous move is terminated. But it doesn’t mean that the highs are in. WE CAN EXPAND IN b-WAVES by x 1.61. Please don’t forget this rule. If you have Prechters EW Principle book open the page 81. You will find a lot of stories about the B-Wave(s).
The are several evidences for the end of this move since 666.79.
1) break of the 0-b line
2) divergences in hourly
3) time of a wave equal to time of c wave
But the most important question to me is where we are. In my count (see chart) untill 1200.44 is not broken we are still in the wave iv. If it breaks, the next mob is 1256.98. Only after the break of 1256.98 the up-move from the low can be interpreted as P2 or whatever.
In the short term view for the next month I see a correction, with a min. target for the next b-wave 956. In average it could be a correction between 32%-61%.It is also possible that the entire up move was terminated at 1080.15 and we are already in the a” wave with expanded b. But in my primary count I count the end of A/W at 1100.17 and we are in the minor b of a” wave, which again can EXPAND over the begin of the a-wave, and etc.
The question is – can this count can help me to trade. Right now I am not sure what will be the next – extended b-wave or drop into the c-wave to complete the a”.
We will see this in the next week.
P.S. Dow has already EXPAND its b-wave, which will let to 1)flat or 2) over-extended c-wave with max. 261% of a.
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