Value of Perfect Information

Name: Yury, aka "dr_livesey"

Web Site: http://epiccallonfate.blogspot.com/

Twitter: mr_livesey

Bio: I am 30 years old and was born in Kiev, Ukraine and now live in Germany. Trading and Elliot Waves are my passion. I work as a consultant in the securities industry.

Posts by dr_livesey:

When will we go down on the S&P 500

Written by Yury
May 3rd, 2010 at 2:14 pm

I even can’t see  any divergence in 5min/1hr.  I would say, we should close the GAP in cash at the 1211 level, and sell-off into the 1155 level , my analysis gives me the 14th of May, where we will see the bottom @ target level.  The top at 1211 should be by tomorrow, if we stay higher than 1195.66 in cash. In /ES this level is 1193.25

still 2 weeks to go for the bottom target as shown below



MoB (Make or Break) for my c”/y” & b’/x’ is 1196.31 cash, when it breaks, the down-move should be confirmed!



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Nothing special

Written by Yury
April 30th, 2010 at 9:49 pm

Nothing special – simple picture and simple count ! b can also extend and make new highs; will still be a b. The moves are correct.



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ES is hitting higher

Written by Yury
April 14th, 2010 at 7:43 pm

ES targets could be 1202.25-1206.75

Current ES chart:



Current SPX chart:



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Leading Diagonal Triangle + next triangle, and the end is sooner than you think

Written by Yury
April 8th, 2010 at 8:30 pm

Finally my EW count is getting clear (at least for me). We have Leading Diagonal Triangle of next Leading Diagonal Triangle, which is not obvious from begin of the waves.

The last (LDT) has still 3 not finished lines, with the following plan:
- (3 LDT) 1202 should take 1-2 days
- (4 LDT) 1191 should take 2-3 days
- (5 LDT) 1209/15 should take 1-2 days
—————————————
Sum: 1209+ by the end of next week.



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Moving forward faster – target range in /ES 1294 – 1451+ for Aug-Oct

Written by Yury
April 6th, 2010 at 7:13 pm

The velocity of /ES to move higher, and its angle during the past two weeks could be more probable indication of already running wave (Y). According to this scenario we will not, as expected, drop down too much, and should be already in the wave (a) of (Y).



The (a)  is not yet complete, but looking like building LDT (Leading Diagonal Triangle) or a first wave of bigger LDT of (a). The past waves of (A) from 666 had identical structures. Here is the same chart zoomed, to give you the idea how it may look like.



Based on this observation, I see the end of wave (a) in the next 30 days, building new higher highs. After it complete, we should see a fast a-b-c drop as (b) above the blue line between 17%-38% of previous wave. The last similar drop took only 31%. 


Based on this scenario, there are some good news for BULLs and BEARs:

• The minimal extension of wave (Y) is 1294 in /ES, 100% would be 1451.
• The period for (Y) to reach the top is about from August to October 2010.

Detailed targets should follow when (a) and (b) are complete. 


Finally the short-term picture of SPX 



I expect to see 1180.60 for wave overlapping between 1LDT and 4LDT, the final 5 LDT could run into the 1200 area.

P.S. The weekly and daily RSI are  strong overbought, I thing we should see the divergence, until the (Y) is over.

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On Monday we should reverse after 1h from opening

Written by Yury
April 2nd, 2010 at 1:29 pm

Until 1193 holding, I am counting the extended b”’/x”’ wave up. Based on the today’s move, we should be in the c of c”’ of b”’/x”’. On Monday we should have a clear reversal after 1h after opening. This is the in-time rule for the c””-wave. I would say, if the wave is not finished already in the /ES (top was 1178.75), we might get the last pop into 1179-1181 area to harmonize the waves (a””=c””). The minimal retracement for any c-waves in the count of 61.8% are already reached in /ES, but still not reached in S&P cash. As well as there is big divergence in RSI of Daily chart.

Until the b”’/x” is not finished, any targets on the down-side are not clear yet. But based on the current picture, we should have a sell-off after 1h opening on Monday into the next day and see the range between 1166.25-1158.75-1146.50 in /ES. My best guess is the 1158.75 level, which is 100% of the a”’/w”’-wave.



I wish everyone a Happy Easter/Chag Pessach Sameach.

I hang out at MortiES Premium during the trading day where I provide charts and analysis during the trading day. Mortie has a free thirty day trial going on. Give it a try by signing up below:





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I hate B-Waves

Written by Yury
April 1st, 2010 at 7:35 pm

I have recounted all waves again, and we are probably NOT in the wave V. I see the END of wave b”’/x”’. Monday probably a little bit higher, don’t know how much, the range is from 1179.54-1193. But because the indicators are very up and divergent, I expect only 1185.  For more details see the chart.



I hang out at MortiES Premium during the trading day where I provide charts and analysis during the trading day.    Mortie has a free thirty day trial going on.  Give it a try by signing up below:





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1180.69 is the top of for the next few month

Written by Yury
March 25th, 2010 at 7:30 pm

Today we could finally made the last wave 5 from 1087 (the y-wave) and probably also completed the rise from 1044, marked as wave (a)/(w). RSI showed divergence in the last few days and should now turn down. The next wave structure is (b)/(x) wave, which has no special correction targets, and depending on structure can reach less or more than 61.8% retracement at 1092.55 in ES. Any break of 1092.50 will confirm the running (b)/(x).

However there is still one alternative open, that the wave y will  extend higher. The Mob for pink alternative is the break of 1124.50 in ES. Afterwards we should see the (c)/(y) up into the 1250th area to complete the B/X. Mob for B/X is 1261.75 in ES.

Here is the current daily chart of /ES.




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NOT A BULL MARKET UNTIL 2017/2018 – The Global picture

Written by Yury
March 23rd, 2010 at 11:24 pm

Ok, I am back on EWwaving and EWtrading, Hey!  I am 30 years old and was born in Kiev, Ukraine and now live in Germany. Trading and Elliot Waves are my passion. I work as a consultant in the securities industry.

After failed hunting the wave IV, P2 or whatever, losing money and mind, I took a personal break, and during this time I was able to  re-analyze the global picture, which I would like to discuss in this post. In the last few month I also have realized, that there are two big groups of traders who emotionally BELIEF in BULL or BEAR markets. If an investor is talking about a BEAR market, everyone is adjusting their EW count to a P2 scenario, with a utopian target of around 1,000 in DOW in several years (e.g. EWI). The other group, BULLS, are seeing the beginning of  aBULL market with a DOW target about 20,000 in the same time. The discrepancy is about 19,000 dow points. But the are a lot of reasons, why  both these cases do not make any sense.

The BULL case: everyone knows, that government world-wide is printing money (FED, EZB), less tax-incomes are increasing public/national debt DRAMATICALLY (German’s debt in 2009 increased by 7.1% or 112 Bil. EUR, US budget deficit hit a record $1.4 trillion in 2009, etc.). Unemployment hit over 10% in the USA and is probably bad on average in Europe. Even if the stocks are rising, it means for me nothing than the notional VALUE of money is just GETTING DESTrOYED. Or in other words – hidden increase of INFLATION. Inflation will be a very good way to pay back the dept in the coming decade(s). But in reality, we just know only 10% of the big story, without mentioning any impacts of  CDS’s, defaulted Corporate Loans, CDOs and other financial issues, we will be faced with its impact on us and the economy in the next 5-10 years. For me there is no one single reason from an economical perspective, which gives me at least one single argument to say that we are done with the  recession. If you do not believe me, there are 4 economic cycles in every economics school book you can learn in your second semester. When we will see the Bull market we are still missing one cycle in between.

The P2 BEAR case: I just want to point, that this case is coming from EWI, which will be destroyed, after we reach a new high.  Dow at 1,000 and S&P500 at 150 is not realistic, at least only because of  the huge amount of virtual money, printed by the FED. Such case means unemployment of more than 50% – possible, but until the FED has a right to issue money, bonds, which will be accepted by all WMF members (hope you understand what I mean) –  I see this case as UTOPIA. Even if everything gets worthless, Apple/Amazon/Google will have enough cash to hold Nasdaq100 over 900 – joke. Mr. Preacher- please adjust your count!!!

The OTHER case: I was looking for some other case, which adjusts to the economical and political issues, we have seen from year 2000 till this time, when the economy can REALLY solve the old and new issues, to give people and government new BREATH for the BULL run.  Two weeks ago I  read an article in a German newspaper, which described the situation, when all EU countries will reduce its debt deficit by only 0.5%/year, only in 2018/20 we can reach the same economical state of 2007.  Historically we had similar economical disasters, which took on average 17/18 years to solve, and produced finally a new BULL run. This happened in 1906-1923, and in 1966-83. The similarity is obvious to the time from the year 2000. If in 2000 we completed only the cycle III, we should be in the cycle IV. Based on new count I see a Double Flat formation, which will last until 2017/2018.  Between 2000 and 2009 we only finished the (W) wave, which has an irregular flat pattern. Now we should be in the (X) wave into the 1500th area. Please see the daily chart below.



 

Daily Wave count: We are in the wave (X) which is moving from 666, and has a target between 95%-110% of Wave (W). The minor (A)/(W) is already finished. Now we are in the (B)/(X)-wave. The first A/W-wave of (B)/(X) is finished, and I am counting the B/X wave. Right now we should be in the (a)/(w) of B/X.



 

Short term count: the blue (a)/(w) shows a w-x-y pattern right now, it is still not clear, how the y-wave will extend. I see a sub-wave structure of a-b-c waves, where the first part of a of y is complete and we are now in the a-b-c of b of y. Tomorrow we should also finish the b of y probably as irregular or running flat and start the c of y, with a minimum target of 0.618 of a, which is 1204.5 in S&P500. 



For any questions or comments, fill free to write me: yury.menchinskiy@gmail.com.  I hang out at MortiES Premium during the trading day.



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Who’s trap is that – this is the BULL’z trap (pre OPEX Day Analysis)

Written by Yury
November 19th, 2009 at 8:47 pm



Well,
everyone in the EW blog world has identified this nice triangle as wave iv, and was looking for a higher wave v to enter short or cover longs. Even EWI posted yesterday a nice chart with the final wave v approach, but it was just too perfect to be true. Instead of to reach long-waited target of 1121 in /ES, which was only ca. 10 points away, we dropped almost 25 points into the north, broke all trend-lines down and made the global picture again unreal complex.

Why I thing it is complex – because:

• We really don’t know where we are now – is this end of the trend up, aka P2 is over, or is this just some-kind of wave iv, or a wave B
• Tomorrow is OPEX and market has not confessed its direction to me, which means for me we have good chance to go up or down next 20-25 pts.
• It is obvious that on OPEX day market is very volatile

In reality I don’t know the direction yet. But what I know are the high OI levels in SPX (here is the chart).

Puts Levels:
- 1090
- 1050
Calls Levels:
- 1100
- 1130

My EW Scenario

I really don’t thing yet we have topped yet. But if even – I don’t mind. Based on SPX analysis the move up is very obvious over – wave (a). Now we should be in the wave (b) or (i). Any move higher to 1110 will reactivate the (v) wave. Until this is not the case – I see the running wave (b), where we have or now finishing the a wave of it. For tomorrow I marked the most important OI levels – 1090-1100. This is from my understanding the range where the market will be tomorrow, with a final touch-down into the b.




What will be next – time will tell us.

Please visit our blog for more updates: http://epiccallonfate.blogspot.com/

Dr. Livesey



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