Name: Duuuuuude

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Bio: I work in the Agri-Business industry as a risk management consultant. I am a registered Series 3 broker, and have 14 years experience in the grain industry.


Posts by Duuuuuude:

    2012 Presidential Election

    Written by Duuuuuude
    September 6th, 2010 at 2:33 pm

    To have a meaningful forcast into the future, you must factor in who will be running the show in the future.  Lets just be honest here………… Obama did not cause the recession the country is in.  To understand that this recession is the result of a housing bubble, you must go back to when the bubble began to assign blame.  Since 1890, home prices barely rose on an inflation-adjusted basis until the 1980′s.   It exploded in 2001 under Bush as he promoted the idea of home ownership.  At the same time, he warned about the systemic risk the financial system faced should Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac need to be bailed out.  Both political parties deserve the blame for our problems, but again to be honest, the good times were rolling and nobody in the country was willing to deal with these problems before they became problems.  We are forced to deal with them today but as of yet, our policies are to re-inflate, buy out, subsidize, increase debt, etc.  This really does not deal with the problem at hand which is that house prices are still too high.  From 2000 to 2006, home prices grew nearly 100% while the inflation adjusted wages grew only 2% for the same period.  This is according to Case-Schiller.  A monkey could tell you that this is unsustainable.  Anyway, this will probably be the study of a future post.

    How Obama deals with our problems are the subject of much debate.  He has huge problems, and the solutions are going to be hard to stomach by all of us.  Who ever was elected President in 2008 was likely destined to be a one termer.  Given the falling popularity of our President, I was curious as to what the alternatives are.  2012 is a long time away, but we will know a lot more a year from now.  According to Intrade, if the election were held today, the money is on a democrat being re-elected.  No, I am not kidding.

    Politics – 2012 US Elections
    2012 Presidential Election Winner (Party)
    Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
    PRESIDENT.DEM.2012
    Democratic Party candidate to win 2012 Presidential Election    		 Trade 60.0 60.9 61.0 9097 0
    PRESIDENT.REP.2012
    Republican Party candidate to win 2012 Presidential Election    		 Trade 38.8 39.5 39.4 7627 +0.9
    PRESIDENT.OTHER.2012
    Any other candidate to win 2012 Presidential Election    		 Trade 1.8 2.0 2.2 2666 0

    Out of curiosity and for fun, I wanted to drop some names as potential presidential candidates for 2012.

    Democrat - Nobody has officially declared for office to challenge Obama yet, and if things improve from here out, I doubt anybody will.  If things stay as they are or continue to get worse (which they almost certainly will), I would not be surprised to see Hillary re-emerge as a more conservative choice for Democrats.

    Republican- There are about 20 names being tossed around according to Wikipedia.  A fourth of these I think lack name recognition (Gary Johnson?). Another fourth seem too polarizing to gain much traction (Newt Gingrich or Sarah Palin) despite accomplished track records.  To make any change, we don’t need a lightning rod.  We need somebody grounded and more palatable for liberals.

  • Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi
  • Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton of Maryland
  • Former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida
  • Businessman and radio talk show host Herman Cain of Georgia
  • Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey
  • Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana
  • Former Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich of Georgia
  • Former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas
  • Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana
  • Former Governor Gary E. Johnson of New Mexico
  • Former Governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin of Alaska
  • Former Governor George Pataki of New York
  • Representative Ron Paul of Texas
  • Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota
  • Governor Rick Perry of Texas
  • General David Petraeus of New Hampshire
  • Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts
  • Former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives Marco Rubio of Florida
  • Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania
  • Senator John Thune of South Dakota

    • I am most interested in people who have a proven track record of understanding the scope of the problems we face and have real ideas that seem to work.  Of the group listed above, the people who seem to know how to get things done would be Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Tim Pawlenty, Bobby Jindal, Mitch Daniels, and Chris Christie.  Bush was a good governor, but I don’t think the country has an appetite for another Bush.  Jindal has a horrable TV presence.  Romney is a Mormon with a big government health care skeleton in his closet.  At this point, my money would be on Christie or Daniels………my favorite is Daniels.

    Independent:

    • Michael Bloomberg, but his support of the Ground Zero Mosque won’t fly across most of the country.
    • Former TV commentator Lou Dobbs

    Despite the difficulties that many of us believe the country faces, most recent polls seem to indicate none of the mentioned candidates would defeat Obama if the election was to occur today.  Some of the candidates mentioned in these polls however are just plain silly.

    Poll source Date Democratic candidate % Republican candidate % Margin
    Politico
    Margin of error: ±2.4%
    Sample size: 1668    		 August 6–11, 2010 Barack Obama 50% Sarah Palin 33% 17
    Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 33% 9
    Barack Obama 42% Tim Pawlenty 23% 19
    Barack Obama 43% Mike Huckabee 35% 8
    Barack Obama 43% Haley Barbour 21% 22
    Public Policy Polling
    Margin of error: ±4.0%
    Sample size: 606    		 August 6–9, 2010 Barack Obama 47% Mike Huckabee 44% 3
    Barack Obama 49% Sarah Palin 43% 6
    Barack Obama 49% Newt Gingrich 42% 7
    Barack Obama 47% Chris Christie 31% 16
    Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 42% 3
    Barack Obama 46% Basil Marceaux 21% 25
    The Economist/YouGov Poll
    Sample size: 1,000    		 July 17-20, 2010 Barack Obama 41.2% Sarah Palin 31.0% 10.2
    Zogby Interactive
    Sample size: 8,487    		 July 16-19, 2010 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 43% 2
    Barack Obama 48% Sarah Palin 37% 11
    Barack Obama 46% Mike Huckabee 37% 9
    Barack Obama 47% George W. Bush 38% 9
    Barack Obama 46% Tom Selleck 23% 23
    Barack Obama 45% Clint Eastwood 28% 17
    Barack Obama 45% Chuck Norris 29% 16
    Politico
    Margin of error: ±3.1%
    Sample size: 1,011    		 July 9–14, 2010 Barack Obama 48% Sarah Palin 36% 12
    Barack Obama 39% Tim Pawlenty 21% 18
    Barack Obama 39% Haley Barbour 21% 18
    Barack Obama 39% Mike Huckabee 35% 4
    Barack Obama 39% Mitt Romney 35% 4

    Don’t get me wrong, it is still very early to talk about this and I think a strong Republican could win, and win in a landslide.  What would help Obama most and what could very well happen is that Palin, Huckabee, or even Ron Paul could run as an independant and split the Republican vote, allowing Obama to hang on.  Perhaps this is really what Intrade is seeing.  That would mean the problems this country faces will languish for 6 more years before they could seriously be tackled.

    Markets | No Comments

    Euro Bounce Follow Up

    Written by Duuuuuude
    June 21st, 2010 at 10:09 am

    This post is a follow up to the Euro Bounce I mentioned a week ago which has completed as it moved exactly to the area I had forecast.

    EURUSD062110

    The S&P has also moved into the area I had picked where I intended to be completely out of my longs.

    SPX062110

    Is it time to short stocks?  Perhaps with tight rules, but I was positioned long and for now feel comfortable taking profits here at the very least.  I have a bearish bias, but realize the market could make a push higher.

    The dollar has pulled near its 50 day moving average which has served as support on numerous occasions.  These bounces have been accompanied by drops in the euro and an accompanying drop in stocks.  This relationship seems somewhat uncoupled as of late so caution is advised for any short taken here.

    DXY062110

    I am expecting at least a short term pull back from here.  At the moment, I am in cash.

    Charts, Market Profile | No Comments

    Euro Set To Bounce

    Written by Duuuuuude
    June 13th, 2010 at 12:14 pm

    I think we are at a substantial support area on the euro.  Economist such as Robert Prechter and Jim Rogers agree.  My reasons are purely technical as this long term chart is fairly obvious.  A bounce to $1.25 would seem completely reasonable to me.  In the grand scheme of things, that is not very much.

    Eurusd061010

    The last time the euro was at 1.25 was on May 24, and the $SPX was around 1090 which is where we are today.  A bounce in the euro here could push the $SPX back upwards towards 1140.

    EURSPX061410

    I did say towards 1140, but I doubt we get there.  I took long positions last week in FAS, JJG, and TNA which are doing well.  I practice safe trading rules, which means they are all protected with stops.  My profits are locked in, and we have already reached my first target, yet the euro has yet to break out above 1.21.  I see two targets ahead.  1109 which is the first gap fill, and 1130 which would be the descending resistance line since this sell off began in late March.

    SPX061410

    As we pass through 1090 and 1109 I will tighten my stops, and expect to be out if not completely short by 1130.

    Charts, Currency, Dollar, Market Indicators, Market Sentiment, Markets | No Comments