It’s not comfirmed, its just “set up”….but whats the point to mention a breakout AFTER the fact?
Early signal (to me) will be a breakout of the rsi wedge, which should preceed and lead price here with this set up.
Same goes (IF) it broke down, which the target would be 9.5 based on the pole height. However, imo…that’s the far FAR least likely.
Long DZZ for disclosure already @ (20.15)
For INTERMEDIATE buy/sell broad market signals.
Idea Sparked and derived from something somewhat similar, that Cobra uses.
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/
This does NOT change my short term outlook, more for Intermediate time line.
You can click on my name and see my prior posts/calls. Without taking up alot of space, I said that I thought all 3 of these (expecially tin) would START selling off as soon as “JULY” came do to QTR re-allocation. They sure have..$$
I think they are all 3 actually due a little bounce here, nothing moves in a total straight line. So I wait to reload, based on some technicals levels that I would like to RE-enter short again. (I sold my puts on these yesterday, entered from 1 July)
I do think TIN sees 8, GMCR 43 and GOOG 320 all before AUG! imo (but nothing goes in a pure straight line, we just had a very nice move in all 3 of these since the start of july, i think they get a “corrective” wave here now …imo, so i step out and wait to see if they all retrace a lil of that past week down push.
(will upload the charts of each a little later this evening)
Yes everyone and their mother is watching the Head and Shoulder break down on the spx. I think we are headed lower too. But i dont think this is the best entry right here right now. Short the pops! (not just short at any ole entry) The vix daily chart is at channel resistance. I think it breaks through, but from my experience very rarely does it happen on the FIRST blast going from the very bottom of the channell all the way to break out above the top. So i think we get a small end of week market bounce to confuse everyone and have then doubt the entire H n S. The most “ideal” signal to me…would be for the vix to pull back to about 27.50, making a triple bottom, and we call all just call the 25 blip a “throw under”……
I think the higher probability is the vix pulls back a little bit here (ie market moves up a tad)….BEFORE the vix breaks this wedge/channell.
(here is the vix daily….)
another update on the GOOG.
Bounced from 405 nicely as I expected.
I do think there is a very strong chance that 447 is at the least a swing top. (reiternation)
IMO, goog will see 381 before 450. Timeline target is over over the next 8 trading days, starting on Wed, 1 July.
Watching the tape: the way it has been trading here over the past 3 weeks, the $NDX has been carrying it. (usually it is GOOG that helps to carry the index!) Ever since that MSFT bing news, it’s been lagging here big time, and now at the very very end of the qtr it gets a lil sympathy love again (window dressing)
Speculation is just that, but BING is going to cut into GOOGLE. (How much? no one knows!) But market share will (is) being taken.
Notice how msft is up like 10% in the past 2-3 weeks and goog is flat over that time?
The big giant looks very tired here to me, and the only reason i think it is holding up here, is again the window dressing. (funds not selling off the overperformers for the qtr yet).
There are some stocks to me by looking at the tape that the funds look like they are showing signs they want to lighten up a little bit on. (TIN and GMCR are 2 i think are complete toast in july, fwiw….)
I am Looking for the selling to start Wed. (1 July)
Besides “window dressing” being officially over, I think we sell off pretty hard on WED. Watching how BLK and GE were reacting in the A/H from that news. (they were not reacting at all)….So that makes me lean more to the PPIP stuff wed will be a sell the news. Few other pyschological reasons too.
Lately we have been sprinkled w/ so much “green shoots”, better than expected, etc etc. I have a strong hunch that the market does not want to be reminded of PPIP. (to me it just brings thoughts of “oh yea the banks, they need to be fixed, hey lets talk about TODAY, not that old mess!”) It’s a reminder of things. I don’t have a crystal ball, so we shall see. But I feel pretty strongly that PPIP wed will be a sell the news. (especially if we push up into it)
I also think goog has an ABOVE average chance to be green for tommorow (30 June: Window dressing). Will be looking to use tomorrow as the puts entry.
The “MAJOR” sell signal will be to me when the rsi breaks down from the weekly support trend (see the original post, links are below the chart)
(Here are my past 2 posts on GOOG, links below)
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/06/23/goog-update/
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/06/21/goog-watch-weekly-chart/
Mentioned TIN about a week ago, w/ chart.
This is another one, that I feel pretty strongly is going to get taken out back and shot in July. The “ONLY” thing imo that is holding the price of TIN and GMCR up at all here right now, is the Window dressing. The fact that they are both highly owned by funds and extrem outperformers this qtr. It the window dressing ends w/ T+3, its already over now. If not they might have a couple days of life left. Shall see, but I think that both of them get a 20% haircut at least for July. (target 42.50 in July)
Proshares looks like they are throwing up a nice lob alley-oop here to me.
…..and I am looking to slam-dunk this “Investment.”
Proshares just released two new ETF’s to return 3X the sp500 index.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=spxu&.yficrumb=RuaNuv22mi7
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=upro&.yficrumb=RuaNuv22mi7
UPRO (3X bull spy)
SPXU (3X bear spy)
Here is some data on a few of past 2x and 3x etf’s:
(proshares 2X financial)
SKF opening: 46 (Jan 2007)………………………now 42.11
UYG opening: 69 (Jan 2007)……………………..now 3.91
(direxion 3X sp500)
BGU opening: 57.50 (Nov 2008)……………now 33.69
BGZ opening: 61.50 (Nov 2008)…………….now 35.46
(direxion 3x financial)
FAS opening 55.42 (Nov 2008)……………….now 9.15
FAZ opening 60.22 (Nov 2008)……………….now 4.73
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/06/26/this-is-not-how-you-triple-your-money.aspx
Looks to me like pro-shares is going to hit another homerun and looking to capture that 3X exposure that direxion has.
These are all great Long term “SHORT and HOLD plays”
We all know the decay on these things is horrible and they are ONLY daytrading vehicles, that is common knowledge and overtime all of these (bear or bull version) things rot away in price.
When I say short, I am referring to being short BOTH the bear and bull version 50/50.
However, shorting both at just ANY ole time is NOT the same.
Ex: if one went short on March 8th, both FAS (@ 2.32) and FAZ (@115.50)They would be up 95% on the faz position, yet DOWN 400% on the fas.
So when do you enter? Well that would take knowing what the market is going to do, if we are about to have a major rally OR a major crash, then it might not be the best time to enter these both short, as one has the potential to go UP over 100% thereby making it a losing hedge trade.
Entry and timing IS trading, it’s everything.
To me this is not a trading idea, this is an investment.
Example, to enter faz short at 60 in Nov 2008, then have it go to 200, that means your UNDERWATER 300%. (with only a +80% or so FAS to hedge)…ie -220% net.Basically, If you are on the verge of a monster RALLY or a monster CRASH, there can be short term PAIN shorting these things. But in the long run, to me…the evidence is clear, they are all headed lower.
I would expect these to perform just like BGU/BGZ, as they are the same a 3X spy etf.
It is unfair to compair them to FAS/FAZ, b/c that is just one sector.
BGU/BGZ is the only true fair comparision.
BGZ achieved a “max” of 110% gain at it’s peak, compared to it’s inception price. So again, the outlier tilt is there as a short term risk to at a specific “paused” point cause an underwater position. However one has to look at the most exteme or ranges and specific dates to find such that “ezact” time that short BOTH bgu/bgz was a losing trade, that also came and went in no time.
But that again get backs to the core of what the INTENT of these etf’s are for. They are for the volatility junkie in all of us. That takes extra effort, that takes knowing what the market is going to do. I just like an investment to take a core position and not have to think about it daily when one arises, as they once in a blue moon it seems. (I do remain short gld, long dba for the long term also)
If you think the market is going to rocket higher for the next 2hrs, you play BGU (not spy). That’s because you are trading.This is not a trade, this is an INVESTMENT.Buy and hold might be dead, so may short and hold….. but short and hold (levered etf’s) is not.
Disclosure: I will be looking to get short BOTH upro and spxu for a long term core play, (ameritrade, options express, think or swim, or if need be I will open up a new account to obtain shares short) If the market crashes or has a monster rally (and ones goes up over 100%)…i will suck it up short term, no worry…gravity loves the leverage. I plan on holding them both short for possibly even years.
Up 600% off 8 March
94% owned my institutions (I look at that more as potential sellers)
only 2.5% insider ownership
4.8X as much debt to equity
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=tin&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
Once June is over, i think this one bites the dust.
Might have a tiny bit more love here up, and backtest the prior channel, fill out the right shoulder……(would be ideal entry to me)…but that looks like about all it may have left in it
Targets 9.56, 7.30
Expecting a bounce here (420 est)
(NOT ready to swing short…..yet)
This is a weekly chart, so its more long term.
And JMO, i do NOT think its ready just yet to short, I think it can get a little pop up here end of qtr. (hopefully)
Why do i think it “might” have topped at 447?
The move up to 602 was a 56% retracement of 747 to 412 drop
From the 602 to 247 drop, the 56% retracement is yep…447.
but it might be getting very close…..waiting to RSI break first….
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$INDU: short term outlook (8350 bounce–>bull trap set up?)
Written by ErikJuly 11th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
It’s all going to be hingent on the earnings. IMO we are likely to have some big BLOWOUTS and some BIG MISSES this season. I think it’s going to be the most “mixed” season in a good while. Which should make for some good up and down moves.
Technicals, IF we start off monday to in the green, I think 8350 is the next stop. (this would trigger an rsi wedge breakout) **its not confirmed yet, but the slightest move up Monday morning would, as the pos divergance is already there in the wedge**
8350 is ALSO a prior triple support area. (now likely strong resistance)
This to me is a fairly probable scenario. Even better IF it comes, then its (to me) definatly one i will trade very aggressivly both directions (w/ stops)
Charts, Commentary | Comments (3)