Written by Mark S.
December 28th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
As the chart shows we only have a little more to go before hitting what I call a rock ceiling (approximately 10700). If we break through the line with ease then all bets are off. However, more likely we bounce down from there to retest the crash lows, or drop halfway in an ABC formation before heading back up to possible 61.8% level of the crash. 3rd scenario is we hit the line and go sideways for months.
My plan is to buy puts on DIA 4 to 5 months out when we get to the ceiling.
Today I bought March puts on Ford with a $9 strike. The price hit and exceeded the upper trend line as forecast. The money is throw away, which means no sell stop. I’m averaging in with small positions. Total commissions will be higher, but losses will be minimal if I’m wrong. See CEO site for past drawings on Ford.
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good luck,
Mark
Content on CEO Trader is opinion only, please trade at your own risk.
Labels: Elliott wave, ETF, fibonacci, Ford, indicators, PUT, stocks, technical analysis, DIA
Charts, Elliott Wave, Market Sentiment, Markets |
Comments (2)
Written by Mark S.
December 20th, 2009 at 9:27 pm
I’ve been in the one-final-push up camp for the simple reason we’ve been in what’s called a combination pattern since mid November. Usually the pattern is bullish and consists of more than one corrective pattern separated by corrective patterns in the opposite direction. They are easily spotted when the height is too small relative to the preceding price movement. Depth of retracement is replaced by time.
With short term bullishness in mind, look at the S&P500 chart. Notice we are about to collide with a downward resistance trend line while resting on a smaller support line. So where would a good upward target be? The blue 50% Fibonacci level of the 2000 crash is a good possibility where the length of wave A would equal C.
However, that would mean the price has to break upward through the formidable descending trend line. It’s possible if the manipulators move the market high enough to trigger the short stop positions during light holiday volume.
An immediate bearish scenario means a drop to the 38.2% level minimum.
I feel the defining moment will be this week.
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good luck,
Mark
Content on CEO Trader is opinion only, please trade at your own risk.
Labels: Elliott wave, Fibonacci, technical analysis, daily, stocks, ETF, chart, indicators, SP500
Charts, Elliott Wave, Market Sentiment, Markets |
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Written by Mark S.
December 17th, 2009 at 9:38 pm
Ford is at it’s final stage of what appears to be an ending diagonal. I used fibonacci to plot out 3 different levels of where it might top out. So to keep things simple, I’ll just say it ends when price hits the upper trend line.
For nearest future price action, sub-wave C may overshoot the bottom trend line which would indicate what’s to become. It’s also possible the final price can overshoot the top trend line.
I’m looking forward to playing both sides of this one.
Btw, I don’t post every day nor does all content get posted on host websites,
so I recommend subscribing to my blog using the icon on my site to get all updates. Can’t beat the price – it’s free.
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Good luck all
Mark
Content on CEO Trader is opinion only, please trade at your own risk.
Charts, Elliott Wave, Exclusive |
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Written by Mark S.
November 25th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
They say history repeats itself, but many disagree especially when it comes to the stock market. But let me show you this chart and then you be the judge. I super-imposed the recent March rally to present onto the beginning stages of the 2002 to 2007 rally and came up with amazing similarities. The time and amplitude had to be adjusted a little, but the pattern shapes can’t be denied. Elliott wavers believe the markets move in non-random patterns and can be predicted to some extent since human sentiment consists of predictable patterns of greed and fear.
So what can we deduce from this chart? Well if history continues to repeat itself we have a short drop, then a monster move up followed by months of consolidation. Maybe I won’t buy that strangle when we get there after all.
Feel free to make the chart viral – I could use the traffic 
Good luck traders!
Mark
Content on CEO Trader is opinion only, please trade at your own risk.
http://ceotrader.blogspot.com
Labels: Elliott wave, Fibonacci, technical analysis, daily, stocks, ETF, chart, indicators, nasdaq, composite, history, repeats, rally
Charts, Data-Based Indicators, Elliott Wave, Exclusive, Market Sentiment, Markets |
Comment (1)
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As the chart shows we only have a little more to go before hitting what I call a rock ceiling (approximately 10700). If we break through the line with ease then all bets are off. However, more likely we bounce down from there to retest the crash lows, or drop halfway in an ABC formation before heading back up to possible 61.8% level of the crash. 3rd scenario is we hit the line and go sideways for months.
ISM report survey – really?
Written by Mark S.January 4th, 2010 at 7:31 pm
Today the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), released it’s December manufacturing survey results and the markets jumped. Here’s what I read on the Econoday summary for today, “Growth in the manufacturing sector is accelerating quickly, according to the ISM report which opens the New Year on a strong economic note.”
I’m no expert when it comes to how these reports are procured, but I don’t think those numbers are derived from success within the US. The ISM chart shows manufacturing at higher levels than when we went into the recession in 2007. Productivity means jobs…where are they?
All is not well with commercial loans. Loan default rates continue to increase in all areas except credit cards which have leveled off. The default rate chart shows data up to September 2009.
We won’t see 4th quarter results until March if we’re lucky. Why do they wait so long to release the data? Ask the Federal Reserve. Ask the Obama administration. During the Bush administration I could go to the White House website and view monthly default data. Now we just get fluff: http://www.whitehouse.gov/
If a reader knows where monthly default data is available please leave it in the comments section. Thanks!
> Be the first for updates please subscribe – it’s free!
> Buy from my affiliates instead of donations…support this site and get a great deal.
good luck,
Mark
Content on CEO Trader is opinion only, please trade at your own risk.
Commentary, Data-Based Indicators, Economic Statistics, Markets | Comment (1)