Bio: I’m a 27 yr old italian guy with a degree in Economics. Working in a bank (and for work, in many markets), I immediately started to love trading. I began with equities, trading italian names and AAPL, as i am a mac addicted. Due to my macroeconomic background, i understood that a big crisis was coming, but i did’t had capitals and knowledge to “ride” it shorting. So i tried covered warrants, options and finally… futures, which are now my main trading instruments. I gained something during 2008, but my inexperience and the obvious mistakes of a beginners, i went through the first phase of a trader life: Losses. Being very bearish about the state of the economy, obviously the spring rally gave me many slaps. Now i’m trying to study better technical analysis, elliott wave theory (i read prechter’s first book and i loved it) and money management. I hope this blog will help me to reflect on my trades, on my studies, and maybe to receive comments (and help, and hints) from people who loves Ms. Market too.


Posts by mdm:

    Next catalyst?

    Written by mdm
    November 26th, 2009 at 6:21 am

    Hi there!

    I know today is Thanksgiving so all American people are in holiday.. so here’s a European post for you!

    I am a sort of permabear about the state of the economy, and I have to thank Mortie if I learned to trade both way (Ben, you can use this in “what users say about”:)). During this rally, the idea that we have not seen the end of this crisis and that a new climax will come soon, never abandoned me. But during last months i really asked myself which could be the new catalyst, as Lehman’s collapse represented in 2008: i think that without a “traumatic” event this asset bubble won’t explode and we won’t see nothing more than a correction, in markets.

    Well, yesterday’s news was that Dubai is seeking debit standstill. I think that this can evolve, and could be really dangerous. Dubai is not an East European country (that are still in trouble..), and is not a US  state that could – in last instance – receive bailout funds from the administration. Dubai is a rich country with its main role is to export capital. During the last few years, the Arab world and Emirates increased their participation in many many global companies (the first that comes to me is Barclays, where Qatar has at least 7%).

    What if these capitals are leveraged and should be removed from the system?

    I know, for now only Dubai has showed some problem and there are many states and Emirates that maybe are not in troubles. But I’m not declaring the end of the world.. I’m just pointing that some news seems not so relevant.. but it can evolve!

    Wish you a nice Thanksgiving day.. today is a nice trading day for us Europeans!

    mdm

    Commentary | Comment (1)

    The Emp..loyment strikes back

    Written by mdm
    November 6th, 2009 at 8:22 am

    Today we have really interesting data releases at 8.30 am, the (un)employment series: what if to a choppy night will follow a morning earthquake? Unemployment is again under Fed’s lenses, because it’s one reason for reteirated pledge of slow recovery, threath to growth and keeping low interest rates. It seems job’s losses should be slowing, so i think that a disappointing releases could push markets to the ground.

    Be careful in trading when will Change in Nonfarm payrolls is released: today they are expected at -175k against a previous -263k. Similarly, consensus on Change in Manufacturing payrolls sees a better release at -42k against -51k.

    Then, take a look at Unemployment Rate: analyst’s estimates say 9.9%, but what market reaction will be, if the psicological 10% level will be taken? Or they already discount a bad surprise?

    The Labor Department will release even Average Hourly Earnings (exp. +0.1 monthly basis) and Average Weekly Hours (from 33 to 33.1), but i think the eyes will be only for datas i mentioned before.

    Just to close the week, at 10am Wholesale inventories: expctations say -1% from -1.3%. But i should be honest: i think that inventories can be read in every way the reader wants (hey, less inventories: they are selling, so this is bullish! Or: hey, less inventories: they are not making orders, so this is bearish! And viceversa).

    Have a nice trading day!
    mdm

    Breadth | No Comments

    Today is a Fed day!

    Written by mdm
    November 4th, 2009 at 4:47 am

    At 2.15 pm Fomc will release his rate decision and statement. Consensus doesn’t expect any change in Fed funds rate, but even no change in rate outlook (market discounts rate hikes during 2010, with an increase of 1% by the end of next year). BennieB. should inform us that their liquidity injection is reviving growth without requiring rates hikes and without raising inflation expectations.

    So, be aware that any unexpected news or change in statement formula “economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period” could significantly move markets. Same way, financial stocks may be influenced by any change in policy or intervention through “emergency” funds like TALF.

    Another interesting data today is ADP employment change, at 8.15 am, expected at -198k versus a prior -254k. This should be a nice appetizer for next days’ employment data.

    I give no significance to ISM Non Manufacturing, scheduled at 10 am.

    have a nice trading day

    mdm

    Breadth | Comment (1)

    Today’s data: factory orders

    Written by mdm
    November 3rd, 2009 at 5:00 am

    Just one medium importance release scheduled for today, and this is Factory Orders at 10 am. Consensus is for an advance of 0.8%, against a previous -0.8%. Usually, unless it brings a huge surprise, this is not a big market mover, so i expect small volatility.

    today will be released Vehicle Sales too, but my source doesn’t tell me at what time.

    Just a little hint for tomorrow Fomc meeting: if formula “rates exceptionally low for extended period” will be removed from the statement, watch for an important move of the dollar and, subsequently, oil and stocks.

    have a nice day!

    mdm

    Economic Statistics | Comments (2)

    This week’s economic releases

    Written by mdm
    November 2nd, 2009 at 5:29 am

    Hi there! Ben gave me the opportunity to bring some contribute to this community, and i thought i can start with a brief commentary of economic releases. Thanks to my work (i’m employed in an italian bank’s treasury), i follow every day releases in real time, and i think this can bring something useful.

    So, i’m going to make a brief recap of what we have in agenda this week. this is my first post so i won’t use graphs or tables, that i hope i’ll add in the future.

    This week is obviusly “dominated” by FOMC meeting wednesday, and it will deserve a separated comment. But i give strong importance to the fact that we’ll see all employment indicator, starting from wednesday with ADP employment change, to continue with thursday’s traditional Jobless claims data and Nonfarm productivity. The better will come friday, with Change in non farm & manufacturing payrolls and Unemployment rate, expected to be released at a breath of distance from 10%, at 9.9%.

    Today’s detail

    Unusually, the week starts with important releases.

    At 10 am (please confirm me the Us time is correct, i’m in Europe :) ) we have ISM Manufacturing Index (where ISM is for Institute for Supply Management), expected at 53 vs a previous 52.6. I think that today’s market mover is Pending Home Sales, due to disappointing release of New Home Sales last week. Pending Sales for september, on monthly basis, are expected in line with previous even if last months was shown and advance of 6.4%. At the same time is scheduled Construction spending too, expected in decline at -0.2% MoM.

    I’d like to receive some feedback and especially to know if this commentary is useful for your trading. you can find me here or in Mortie’s post comments :)

    have a nice trading week

    mdm

    Economic Statistics | Comments (5)