Name: Mortie

Twitter: MortieES

Bio: Trading didn’t look too difficult to me 22 years ago, so I began trading October 1987. After that experience and a break from trading, I tried again. This time I was going to be a Bear. Perfect for the 90’s. So I didn’t have a great start as a trader. I paid a lot for my trading education. I was thrilled when I could finally break even on a regular basis. Trading is an avocation for me - one that I take seriously, and one that I consider the most difficult endeavor I have ever undertaken. I have a lot going against me as a trader. I was a Marine officer in Vietnam and fought in the Ashau with a Battalion called “The Walking Dead” ~ and so, like most combat Marines, I’m too aggressive. I’m a Doctor (one of the Dental specialties) ~ and everyone knows they are the worse investors/businessmen. I am a perfectionist and hate to be wrong ~ so I have a tendency to want to fight the market. Overcoming these liabilities makes the prize more rewarding. I’m still a work in progress, but am making headway. I think I have a lot of good advice for new traders. If I would follow my own advice more consistently, I would be a far better trader also.


Posts by Mortie:

    MortiES’ Track Record 14 August ~ Calling the Top!?

    Written by Mortie
    August 14th, 2011 at 12:38 pm

    It’s always a fair question to see how an analyst did calling a major top. When I posted on 17 July 2011, many analysts were calling for the 2 May high to be exceeded. They were looking at the consolidation as a continuation pattern and not a major topping pattern. Based on the Elliott count of the Weekly and Daily chart and a supporting H&S pattern forming, I changed my little End-Is-Near zealot’s sign that I had been posting for weeks from “IS near” to “WAS near”. Those who have been following my posts and understand Elliott Wave Theory know that this is a significant top that will lead to a correction to a minimum of 1102.75 and most likely 950′ish. There is even the possibility of a retrace of the entire impulsive move from the 6 March 2009 low. And some say we will go much lower. I’m sticking to the more Bullish correction to 950′ish, but I know how ES loves extremes. Look what it did with the correction out of the H&S. Many analysts say the correction is over and that we are going to new highs. You can see from the second chart that I don’t agree. If you are a long-term position trader, you can take this as a informed tip. A colleague asked me my advise on the market and on 17 July I told him I would take my pension and IRA’s out of equities for a while. He’s very happy right now! Knowing that we are going to make a major correction is useful, but if you are a day-trader, you need to know how we are going to get there on a day-by-day basis, and that is what we do at this site.

    This is a copy of the 17July2011 post whereFickle Me changed my mind based on the unfolding of new data. Day-traders have the luxury of changing their mind on a dime. Stubbornness because of pride can cost you money! You can click on it to enlarge it.

    Let’s take a look at the Weekly chart I posted on 17 July 2011. I’m sure I wasn’t the only analyst who saw the repeating patterns on this chart.

    We have to at least take a look at the Weekly chart as of this posting.

    When did I first see a H&S forming? Take a look at my posting on 25June2011. This chart became my intermediate overarching view as I analyzed the market for day-traders. Because we were going to be going higher from the 25th, I didn’t call a top prematurely because I had the luxury of waiting for the market to unfold and give me the right moment to call it.

    I talk often about my overarching view of the market and how that helps me with short-term trading. Here are a series of prior posts that were successful because of my clear understanding of the Big Picture. These are based on my calling of a market top on 15 July. I was using a series of 360 minute interval on charts in my analysis because it gave me a chart that was useful. The first chart I’ll show is the post of 21July2011. Without a clear understanding of the Big Picture, I wouldn’t be able to draw a big red arrow on this chart. It could as easily be a rally beginning from a bottom – based on this chart alone. The areas on the chart that imply a wrecked count are very meaningful because I’m referring to a wrecked count of my overarching view!

    I’ll give you the first three consecutive posts of the week following the above post. The chart below is from 25July2011. You can see I am relieved that my count didn’t get wrecked. When a major count gets wrecked, it’s back to the drawing board. Fortunately, I can’t remembering that happening for years.


    Then we go to the 26th of July. The Bulls and the Bears had been dancing around, but the Wave 2 high seemed to be out of jeopardy for the time being. I was still projecting a big Wave 3 with the red arrow.

    The last chart I’ll show is the 27th of July. Based on our understanding of the Big Picture, our projection of a major move down was vindicated as the Bears were on the run. The rest is history. The green broken arrows are for profit taking and not significant market reversals. Since this post we have been nailing the market action on a regular basis. I can’t always nail every day’s action because analysis is based on probabilities and not certainties. But I do think that the analysis on this site will give you a substantial edge, and that’s all you can ever hope for from an analyst. An edge plus sound trading techniques is what you need as a day-trader to be profitable. Analysis is much easier than trading! If you have great analysis and poor money management, you will only lose your money more slowly.

    If you’re not a subscriber, come and see what’s going on at this site for a month. It’s FREE and there are no hidden agendas other than winning you over as a subscriber. You won’t be getting phone calls and spam emails because we sell your information. Because we don’t. You might even pick up a few tips if you don’t stay. I’ll guarantee you that there are some helpful hints that you can pick up in a month that will benefit your trading.

    If you like what you see here, wait to see how MortiES’s analyses can assist you in your everyday investing or trading strategy! Go ahead, check out my track record and

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    I am offering a 30 day free trial period to be followed by a new monthly price of $60.

     

    MortiES’ Weekend Update 27Feb2011 ~ Many Possibilities!

    Written by Mortie
    February 27th, 2011 at 8:57 pm

    This is the analysis that my premium subscribers received this evening. I post at the Value of Perfect Infomation. Join my newsletter as well!
    We don’t provide a day trading system. I am a probability trader that has modified a system that gives you an opportunity to learn to fish. The value we provide is in understanding setups and managing risks. However, there are times when I will give you a fish and other traders here will do the same. Also, please remember that this is about probabilities, not certainties.
    To that end, the best way to see what we do on a daily basis and on an intraday basis is to try our Premium Content. If this site doesn’t add back more than the price of admission, then you have no obligation to subscribe after one month, and you will have still learned some Elliott.
    If you like what you see here, wait to see how MortiES’s analysis can assist you in your everyday investing or trading strategy! Go ahead., Click on “Subscribe to MortiES Premium” and give it a try! I am offering a 30 day free trial period. 

    Sometimes there are so many possibilities to wade through as we try to project a path for the market, that it becomes dangerous to even try. The good thing is that as ES unfolds, it will begin to reveal its intent. If we have done a good job analyzing where we might be in the market structure, the unfolding of new data will begin to crystalize which of our projections are most likely and we can discard useless scenarios. I apologize for all the stuff on this first chart, but I will give my preferred scenario.
    This is the Daily chart. Look at the wave counts that are translucent as non-confirmed counts – i.e. possibilities. W5 (black) is definitely extending, and the question is whether it is complete or are we in W4 (red) of W5 (black), or has W5 (black) ended. I don’t think W5 (black) has ended. BOTTOM LINE: I am looking for a continuation of Friday’s rally – to new highs.

    The next chart isn’t very useful, but I wanted to show everyone that the structure of the correction was considered, although not helpful – to me. Just as the trend is your friend when trading, it is your friend when analyzing. When you are in a Bull market, you should consider first the most Bullish scenarios first. Another tip in analyzing the market is to expect extremes – therefore, be patient!


    MortiES’ Archived Track Record ~ Three Consecutive Days

    Written by Mortie
    January 23rd, 2011 at 10:38 am

    Ben (BostonWealth) asked me to do another track record post. It has been a while since I did one – due to laziness/busyness, not to lack of examples! I thought, why not simply post the last three days of trading? I want  to show the continuity of my analyses. The projections below are based on a lot more than what is evident on the posted charts. Key to my analyses is the Big Picture from the Daily/Weekly chart. Without the Big Picture, it’s difficult to understand where we are in the market. I usually review the Big Picture on weekends, but this week I did it mid-week because it was important for my subscribers to understand exactly where we were (IMO) to understand clearly where we are going. Translating that Big Picture into high-probability daytrading projections is my goal on this site. Here are my posts for the last three trading days (Wed-Fri).

    The first chart is Tuesday’s post for Wednesday’s trading. I am using the data for the regular trading hours in this analysis, but the Globex after-hours data followed my broken arrows perfectly also!

    The chart below shows the next day of trading. Pretty good call!

    This next chart is an early morning intraday update that I posted when I saw the market nearing a bottom, and the end of Wave A (according to my count). Calling for market reversals is not a high probability venture. You need to know when the odds are in your favor to project the end of a wave. Even then you often end up with egg on your face.

    The projected turn did happen in the middle of the green ellipse and a nice long trade was the reward.

    My posting for the next night was an overview of the count on a Daily chart. I wanted all subscribers to be properly oriented to the Big Picture. The comments below were posted the next day as I was looking for an ABC correction for a Wave B. I rarely announce my trades since I don’t have time to properly manage them with my full-time day job, but in this case I felt strongly about a short at the level we gapped to in the early morning.

    The following chart shows where I took the short I mentioned above in the comment section. Not a spectacular trade but at least it was in the right direction, and we called another Wave reversal pretty well. The white broken arrow indicates where I think the market is going now. Join us with a free month’s subscription and see where I project the end of this wave to be. More importantly, see the Big Picture that could be useful in your own analyses for weeks/months to come.

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    ** Counting waves on multiple time-intervals is a dynamic undertaking. As the market unfolds, lower probability counts may become the highest probability count. Because this is a dynamic process, you need to constantly update your short-internediate term projections. That doesn’t mean Elliott isn’t working, but rather that we are dealing with probabilities and not certainties, and need to remain flexible. I only analyze the e-mini S&P500 market. Specialization is useful since markets have personalities and IMO it’s more beneficial to get to know one market’s personality really well than many superficially. It’s said that “Generalists” know nothing about everything and “Specialists” know everything about nothing. I’m not sure if that’s the case here, but as a “Generalist” analyst, my ignorance is unbounded! As a “Specialist”, I hope I know a little about something.

    Check us out.  We have a MortiES classroom, newsletter, trial subscription, and trading tab.

    We don’t provide a day trading system. I am a probability trader that has modified a system that gives you an opportunity to learn to fish. The value we provide is in understanding setups and managing risks. However, there are times when I will give you a fish and other traders here will do the same. Also, please remember that this is about probabilities, not certainties.
    My goal would be an “Elliott Wave for Dummies” curriculum. I love all the “for Dummies” books because they strive to simplify and clarify. They are profoundly simple. The mark of a good teacher IMO is someone who can get the hay down from the loft so the horses can eat it. Many teachers like to complicate their subject matter so they can appear “smart”. I have no use for insecurity in teachers. The old saying that “it’s better to teach someone to fish than give them a fish” is never more true than in teaching.
    To that end, the best way to see what we do on a daily basis and on an intraday basis is to try our Premium Content. If this site doesn’t add back more than the price of admission, then you have no obligation to subscribe after one month, and you will have still learned some Elliott.

    If you like what you see here, wait to see how MortiES’s analysis can assist you in your everyday investing or trading strategy! Go ahead, check out my track record and Click on “Subscribe to MortiES Premium” and give it a try! I am offering a 30 day free trial period.

    Can’t ignore my Marines!

    We shouldn’t be surprised with today’s action. ES did hit the top of our target level for a correction (red highlighted oval on last night’s post).

    I didn’t notice when I posted today that we could see a reversal at the 161.8% external retracement that we were also at the 50% overall retracement level and the top of our target zone. That happens when you’re busy at work! The big question of “Where to now?” is discussed on the chart. I don’t have anything to add to my comments below. My best guess is that we close the gap and that we finished Wave B rather than a W1 this afternoon.

    A long 42 years ago that seems like yesterday on a tough op. Operation Dewey Canyon is the only time a Marine unit was ever awarded the Army Presidential Unit Citation! That’s me on the far left ~ about 42 pounds ago. This picture is in a book written by the Marine kneeling on the far right – “The Marine Rifleman”.

    MortiES’ Weekend Update 24July2010 ~ The Big Picture

    Written by Mortie
    July 24th, 2010 at 5:27 pm

    This is the analysis that my premium subscriber received this evening.  Join my newsletter as well!

    Friday made a new high that ruined a Bearish count for some Bears. Don’t feel too sorry for them, because they can still devise another Bear count. This Weekend I want to look at the Big Picture again, and because there is some ambiguity in the Weekly chart of ES I have compared the Weekly charts of other indices. It was an informative exercise.

    First, we will look at the Weekly chart of ES that has been guiding my analysis by providing an overarching view of the market. Back on May 6th when we had the big one-day crash, I presented an overview of the market and said that I thought it was very possible that we were seeing a W4 of the rally from 6 March developing. I gave two W4 targets with the 61.8% retracement of W3 being the most extreme target that had to hold. Well, as you can see on the chart below, ES did get down to the extreme level and reverse. Now it stands as a line-in-the-sand for the Bulls. This count on this chart is made by AdvancedGET, but this software is not the Holy Grail. It merely gives one way to count this market. Because not all the indicators confirm ES making a new high, I look at the other indices in the charts following. To confirm that this is most likely a W4, ES needs to get above 1029.50 (Wave B of W4).

    Next I look at the Dow Transport Weekly chart. The Dow Transportation average has traditionally been a leading index. The analysis of this chart shows that all the indicators and other factors I look at are favorable to a successful W5 developing. Specifically, where the PTI (profit taking index) fell below 35 on the ES chart (not good for a successful W5), it is >35 on this chart.

    The Nasdaq has been a strong segment of the market throughout the rally from 6Mar2009. As with the Transports, the Nasdaq Weekly chart also supports a successful W5 taking out the W3 high. Also, like the Transports, W3 ended at the 78.6% retracement of the former market high (not the bubble in the early 2000′s). Getting above this level will be very Bullish.

    Then we look at the mighty DOW. It too supports the development of a successful W5 with a reversal at the most typical W4 target level (50% retracement of W3).

    The overview of the Weekly charts of the indices seem to support the count that I have on the charts. Until ES says otherwise, I will go with this Bullish view of the market. I am sure EWI won’t approve of this count, but I never was a joiner. I want to live up to my motto, “Always original, Sometimes right!” For those who believe that W3 was the end of an impulsive move and not W3, I say that that is entirely possible. That count is not far behind this count. I can make GET give me that count by using a Daily chart. I must admit that one consideration that makes me favor the more Bullish view of the market is the “summer rally” phenomenon. No matter which view is correct, it doesn’t make a difference in my daytrading tomorrow.

    So what about the next trading session? That is really what my analysis is all about. Actually, we are at a somewhat tricky spot. I can make a case for either strength or weakness. Just because I believe we are in a W5, doesn’t mean I think that every day will be up. The chart below explains what I am seeing in the market. Bottom line, the most Bullish thing I can see happening is a gap through the 78.6% resistance level I have on the chart and a strong rally. The next most likely scenario is consolidation under the resistance before heading higher. And then there is a Bearish scenario where ES corrects back to the former W4 before heading higher. I can’t predict which will happen, but I will give updates as ES yields more data.

    We don’t provide a day trading system. I am a probability trader that has modified a system that gives you an opportunity to learn to fish. The value we provide is in understanding setups and managing risks. However, there are times when I will give you a fish and other traders here will do the same. Also, please remember that this is about probabilities, not certainties.

    My goal would be an “Elliott Wave for Dummies” curriculum. I love all the “for Dummies” books because they strive to simplify and clarify. They are profoundly simple. The mark of a good teacher IMO is someone who can get the hay down from the loft so the horses can eat it. Many teachers like to complicate their subject matter so they can appear “smart”. I have no use for insecurity in teachers. The old saying that “it’s better to teach someone to fish than give them a fish” is never more true than in teaching.

    To that end, the best way to see what we do on a daily basis and on an intraday basis is to try our Premium Content. If this site doesn’t add back more than the price of admission, then you have no obligation to subscribe after one month, and you will have still learned some Elliott.

    If you like what you see here, wait to see how MortiES’s analysis can assist you in your everyday investing or trading strategy! Go ahead, check out my track record and Click on “Subscribe to MortiES Premium” and give it a try! I am offering a 30 day free trial period.

    This is the weekend analysis that my premium subscribers received.  That is the question! I can make a case for either scenario, but the most recent data that ES has been giving us is Bearish. Not because the market is going down, but because the structure of the market is Bearish. The charts below make the case for neither scenario, but rather presents both as possibilities and indicated important levels to my analysis. As the market unfolds, more information will be welcome and useful in projecting the intermediate-term path of ES. The first chart is the Weekly Big Picture. It’s primary use is to give us an overarching view of the market so we don’t get lost among the trees. The second chart is more relevant to our trading on Monday. Sometimes I learn more when my projection is not followed by the market. It tells me to reconsider my opinions.

    The Weekly chart below shows general paths that are possible for ES. Because I am short-term Bullish for Monday’s trading, I favor the short red arrow up for Monday. The next chart shows the possibilities for the short-term.

    The next chart is more relevant to our trading on Monday. Be sure and review recent posts, since many are still relevant. I still have, in the back of my head, the 1150 level as a destination which would make a nice right shoulder on the Daily chart. That would be at approximately the 62% retracement level, and ES has already hit the 50% retracement level and reversed. Right now, it looks on the Daily chart like ES wants to make a right shoulder, but had this shoulder beaten with a 2 X 4. As I mention on the chart, the 1150 level would make for some interesting possibilities ~ Bearish and Bullish. The most notable Bearish indicator is the structure of the rally from the correction low of 1038.50 which looks corrective (overlapping waves). This could be an ABC or an ABCDE. But that doesn’t rule out the possibility that it is simply ES forming a base from which to rally.

    We don’t provide a day trading system. I am a probability trader that has modified a system that gives you an opportunity to learn to fish. The value we provide is in understanding setups and managing risks. However, there are times when I will give you a fish and other traders here will do the same. Also, please remember that this is about probabilities, not certainties.

    My goal would be an “Elliott Wave for Dummies” curriculum. I love all the “for Dummies” books because they strive to simplify and clarify. They are profoundly simple. The mark of a good teacher IMO is someone who can get the hay down from the loft so the horses can eat it. Many teachers like to complicate their subject matter so they can appear “smart”. I have no use for insecurity in teachers. The old saying that “it’s better to teach someone to fish than give them a fish” is never more true than in teaching.

    To that end, the best way to see what we do on a daily basis and on an intraday basis is to try our Premium Content. If this site doesn’t add back more than the price of admission, then you have no obligation to subscribe after one month, and you will have still learned some Elliott.

    If you like what you see here, wait to see how MortiES’s analysis can assist you in your everyday investing or trading strategy! Go ahead, check out my track record and click on “Subscribe to MortiES Premium” and give it a try! I am offering a 30 day free trial period

    MortiES’ Track Record – Week of 7 June 2010

    Written by Mortie
    June 13th, 2010 at 7:31 pm

    This first Chart is my EOD analysis that was posted on 8 June 2010. My primary scenario was the Bullish path depicted by the blue arrows. These arrows were drawn to indicate typical market direction and action for the next day. The first arrow up indicated that I thought the market would make a little headway before correcting into a buy-the-dip setup. Then I expected a significant rally into the EOD.

    The chart below is the market’s action the next day with the arrows superimposed. Not perfect, but I’ll take that call all day long!

    We don’t provide a day trading system. I am a probability trader that has modified a system that gives you an opportunity to learn to fish. The value we provide is in understanding setups and managing risks. However, there are times when I will give you a fish and other traders here will do the same. Also, please remember that this is about probabilities, not certainties.

    My goal would be an “Elliott Wave for Dummies” curriculum. I love all the “for Dummies” books because they strive to simplify and clarify. They are profoundly simple. The mark of a good teacher IMO is someone who can get the hay down from the loft so the horses can eat it. Many teachers like to complicate their subject matter so they can appear “smart”. I have no use for insecurity in teachers. The old saying that “it’s better to teach someone to fish than give them a fish” is never more true than in teaching.

    To that end, the best way to see what we do on a daily basis and on an intraday basis is to try our Premium Content. If this site doesn’t add back more than the price of admission, then you have no obligation to subscribe after one month, and you will have still learned some Elliott.

    If you like what you see here, wait to see how MortiES’s analysis can assist you in your everyday investing or trading strategy! Go ahead, check out my track record and Click on “Subscribe to MortiES Premium” and give it a try! I am offering a 30 day free trial period.

    Or just click the “Sign Up” button below!

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    MortiES’ Track Record – Week of 24 May 2010

    Written by Mortie
    May 31st, 2010 at 1:50 pm

    This is my 26May2010 EOD post with analysis for the upcoming session. Analysis was done with a combination of Elliott Wave and typical Fibonacci relationships. As I stated in my post, I was fairly confident in this projection, but once ES got to the upper target, I felt that there were two scenarios possible. But for the next day, I was confident with my analysis. We had some other good calls this week, but this was my favorite.

    The chart below is the path that ES took up until the close of trading the next day. I overlaid the arrows on the chart, and as the chart shows, this move was nailed.  A 50 point day makes a difference to any trading account.

    We don’t provide a day trading system. I am a probability trader that has modified a system that gives you an opportunity to learn to fish. The value we provide is in understanding setups and managing risks. However, there are times when I will give you a fish and other traders here will do the same. Also, please remember that this is about probabilities, not certainties.

    My goal would be an “Elliott Wave for Dummies” curriculum. I love all the “for Dummies” books because they strive to simplify and clarify. They are profoundly simple. The mark of a good teacher IMO is someone who can get the hay down from the loft so the horses can eat it. Many teachers like to complicate their subject matter so they can appear “smart”. I have no use for insecurity in teachers. The old saying that “it’s better to teach someone to fish than give them a fish” is never more true than in teaching.

    To that end, the best way to see what we do on a daily basis and on an intraday basis is to try our Premium Content. If this site doesn’t add back more than the price of admission, then you have no obligation to subscribe after one month, and you will have still learned some Elliott.

    If you like what you see here, wait to see how MortiES’s analysis can assist you in your everyday investing or trading strategy! Go ahead, check out my track record and Click on “Subscribe to MortiES Premium” and give it a try! I am offering a 30 day free trial period.

    Or just click the “Sign Up” button below!

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    This chart was posted after the end of trading on 17May2010. It was a straight forward application of typical Elliott analysis, combined with Fibonacci targets and GET’s MOB. The first green circle was identified as the most typical level for a reversal. The smile at the low of the current correction is there because we hit that target from the day before. We were on a run! The arrows on my projections are not time sensitive, they don’t predict the slope of the action, only the levels attained. Globex is usually going to have a much less severe slope than the regular session.

    The chart below is a record of the trading the next day. I superimposed red translucent arrows on my projections from the day before. We accurately forecasted 50 points of market action!

    We don’t provide a day trading system. I am a probability trader that has modified a system that gives you an opportunity to learn to fish. The value we provide is in understanding setups and managing risks. However, there are times when I will give you a fish and other traders here will do the same. Also, please remember that this is about probabilities, not certainties.

    Here is what an investor said today about me!

    My goal would be an “Elliott Wave for Dummies” curriculum. I love all the “for Dummies” books because they strive to simplify and clarify. They are profoundly simple. The mark of a good teacher IMO is someone who can get the hay down from the loft so the horses can eat it. Many teachers like to complicate their subject matter so they can appear “smart”. I have no use for insecurity in teachers. The old saying that “it’s better to teach someone to fish than give them a fish” is never more true than in teaching.

    And here is how another investor today praised Elliott Wave Analyis

    To that end, the best way to see what we do on a daily basis and on an intraday basis is to try our Premium Content. If this site doesn’t add back more than the price of admission, then you have no obligation to subscribe after one month, and you will have still learned some Elliott.

    If you like what you see here, wait to see how MortiES’s analysis can assist you in your everyday investing or trading strategy! Go ahead, check out my track record and Click on “Subscribe to MortiES Premium” and give it a try! I am offering a 30 day free trial period.

    Or just click the “Sign Up” button below!

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    MortiES’ Track Record Week of 3May2010

    Written by Mortie
    May 10th, 2010 at 7:23 pm

    Here is my 2May2010 End-of-Day post. It was a rather bold projection for the next day, but I could see no other high probability, alternative scenario.

    This is the way the market unfolded the next day. I don’t guarantee results like this every day. The market doesn’t make moves like this every day. But when I only have one arrow on my projection for trading the next day and a highlighted target area, I am not hedging my bets.

    The best way to see what we do on a daily basis and on an intraday basis is to try our Premium Content.

    If this site doesn’t add back more than the price of admission, then you have no obligation to subscribe after one month, and you will have still learned some Elliott. All you have to do to start your 30 day Free Trial to MortiES’ Premium Content is go to:

    http://www.bostonwealth.net/subscribe-to-morties-premium/ and then clicking on

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    or just click the “Sign Up” button above!