Mortie « Value of Perfect Information

Name: Mortie

Twitter: MortieES

Bio: Trading didn’t look too difficult to me 22 years ago, so I began trading October 1987. After that experience and a break from trading, I tried again. This time I was going to be a Bear. Perfect for the 90’s. So I didn’t have a great start as a trader. I paid a lot for my trading education. I was thrilled when I could finally break even on a regular basis. Trading is an avocation for me - one that I take seriously, and one that I consider the most difficult endeavor I have ever undertaken. I have a lot going against me as a trader. I was a Marine officer in Vietnam and fought in the Ashau with a Battalion called “The Walking Dead” ~ and so, like most combat Marines, I’m too aggressive. I’m a Doctor (one of the Dental specialties) ~ and everyone knows they are the worse investors/businessmen. I am a perfectionist and hate to be wrong ~ so I have a tendency to want to fight the market. Overcoming these liabilities makes the prize more rewarding. I’m still a work in progress, but am making headway. I think I have a lot of good advice for new traders. If I would follow my own advice more consistently, I would be a far better trader also.

Posts by Mortie:

MortiES’ Weekend Update 24July2010 ~ The Big Picture

Written by Mortie
July 24th, 2010 at 5:27 pm

This is the analysis that my premium subscriber received this evening. Join my newsletter as well!

Friday made a new high that ruined a Bearish count for some Bears. Don’t feel too sorry for them, because they can still devise another Bear count. This Weekend I want to look at the Big Picture again, and because there is some ambiguity in the Weekly chart of ES I have compared the Weekly charts of other indices. It was an informative exercise.

First, we will look at the Weekly chart of ES that has been guiding my analysis by providing an overarching view of the market. Back on May 6th when we had the big one-day crash, I presented an overview of the market and said that I thought it was very possible that we were seeing a W4 of the rally from 6 March developing. I gave two W4 targets with the 61.8% retracement of W3 being the most extreme target that had to hold. Well, as you can see on the chart below, ES did get down to the extreme level and reverse. Now it stands as a line-in-the-sand for the Bulls. This count on this chart is made by AdvancedGET, but this software is not the Holy Grail. It merely gives one way to count this market. Because not all the indicators confirm ES making a new high, I look at the other indices in the charts following. To confirm that this is most likely a W4, ES needs to get above 1029.50 (Wave B of W4).

Next I look at the Dow Transport Weekly chart. The Dow Transportation average has traditionally been a leading index. The analysis of this chart shows that all the indicators and other factors I look at are favorable to a successful W5 developing. Specifically, where the PTI (profit taking index) fell below 35 on the ES chart (not good for a successful W5), it is >35 on this chart.

The Nasdaq has been a strong segment of the market throughout the rally from 6Mar2009. As with the Transports, the Nasdaq Weekly chart also supports a successful W5 taking out the W3 high. Also, like the Transports, W3 ended at the 78.6% retracement of the former market high (not the bubble in the early 2000′s). Getting above this level will be very Bullish.

Then we look at the mighty DOW. It too supports the development of a successful W5 with a reversal at the most typical W4 target level (50% retracement of W3).

The overview of the Weekly charts of the indices seem to support the count that I have on the charts. Until ES says otherwise, I will go with this Bullish view of the market. I am sure EWI won’t approve of this count, but I never was a joiner. I want to live up to my motto, “Always original, Sometimes right!” For those who believe that W3 was the end of an impulsive move and not W3, I say that that is entirely possible. That count is not far behind this count. I can make GET give me that count by using a Daily chart. I must admit that one consideration that makes me favor the more Bullish view of the market is the “summer rally” phenomenon. No matter which view is correct, it doesn’t make a difference in my daytrading tomorrow.

So what about the next trading session? That is really what my analysis is all about. Actually, we are at a somewhat tricky spot. I can make a case for either strength or weakness. Just because I believe we are in a W5, doesn’t mean I think that every day will be up. The chart below explains what I am seeing in the market. Bottom line, the most Bullish thing I can see happening is a gap through the 78.6% resistance level I have on the chart and a strong rally. The next most likely scenario is consolidation under the resistance before heading higher. And then there is a Bearish scenario where ES corrects back to the former W4 before heading higher. I can’t predict which will happen, but I will give updates as ES yields more data.

We don’t provide a day trading system. I am a probability trader that has modified a system that gives you an opportunity to learn to fish. The value we provide is in understanding setups and managing risks. However, there are times when I will give you a fish and other traders here will do the same. Also, please remember that this is about probabilities, not certainties.

My goal would be an “Elliott Wave for Dummies” curriculum. I love all the “for Dummies” books because they strive to simplify and clarify. They are profoundly simple. The mark of a good teacher IMO is someone who can get the hay down from the loft so the horses can eat it. Many teachers like to complicate their subject matter so they can appear “smart”. I have no use for insecurity in teachers. The old saying that “it’s better to teach someone to fish than give them a fish” is never more true than in teaching.

To that end, the best way to see what we do on a daily basis and on an intraday basis is to try our Premium Content. If this site doesn’t add back more than the price of admission, then you have no obligation to subscribe after one month, and you will have still learned some Elliott.

If you like what you see here, wait to see how MortiES’s analysis can assist you in your everyday investing or trading strategy! Go ahead, check out my track record and Click on “Subscribe to MortiES Premium” and give it a try! I am offering a 30 day free trial period.

Charts, Commentary, Elliott Wave, Market Indicators, Market Sentiment, Markets | No Comments

MortiES’ Weekend Update 27June2010 ~ Summer Rally or Summer Slump?!

Written by Mortie
June 27th, 2010 at 12:10 pm

This is the weekend analysis that my premium subscribers received. That is the question! I can make a case for either scenario, but the most recent data that ES has been giving us is Bearish. Not because the market is going down, but because the structure of the market is Bearish. The charts below make the case for neither scenario, but rather presents both as possibilities and indicated important levels to my analysis. As the market unfolds, more information will be welcome and useful in projecting the intermediate-term path of ES. The first chart is the Weekly Big Picture. It’s primary use is to give us an overarching view of the market so we don’t get lost among the trees. The second chart is more relevant to our trading on Monday. Sometimes I learn more when my projection is not followed by the market. It tells me to reconsider my opinions.

The Weekly chart below shows general paths that are possible for ES. Because I am short-term Bullish for Monday’s trading, I favor the short red arrow up for Monday. The next chart shows the possibilities for the short-term.

The next chart is more relevant to our trading on Monday. Be sure and review recent posts, since many are still relevant. I still have, in the back of my head, the 1150 level as a destination which would make a nice right shoulder on the Daily chart. That would be at approximately the 62% retracement level, and ES has already hit the 50% retracement level and reversed. Right now, it looks on the Daily chart like ES wants to make a right shoulder, but had this shoulder beaten with a 2 X 4. As I mention on the chart, the 1150 level would make for some interesting possibilities ~ Bearish and Bullish. The most notable Bearish indicator is the structure of the rally from the correction low of 1038.50 which looks corrective (overlapping waves). This could be an ABC or an ABCDE. But that doesn’t rule out the possibility that it is simply ES forming a base from which to rally.

If you like what you see here, wait to see how MortiES’s analysis can assist you in your everyday investing or trading strategy! Go ahead, check out my track record and click on “Subscribe to MortiES Premium” and give it a try! I am offering a 30 day free trial period

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MortiES’ Track Record – Week of 7 June 2010

Written by Mortie
June 13th, 2010 at 7:31 pm

This first Chart is my EOD analysis that was posted on 8 June 2010. My primary scenario was the Bullish path depicted by the blue arrows. These arrows were drawn to indicate typical market direction and action for the next day. The first arrow up indicated that I thought the market would make a little headway before correcting into a buy-the-dip setup. Then I expected a significant rally into the EOD.

The chart below is the market’s action the next day with the arrows superimposed. Not perfect, but I’ll take that call all day long!

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MortiES’ Track Record – Week of 24 May 2010

Written by Mortie
May 31st, 2010 at 1:50 pm

This is my 26May2010 EOD post with analysis for the upcoming session. Analysis was done with a combination of Elliott Wave and typical Fibonacci relationships. As I stated in my post, I was fairly confident in this projection, but once ES got to the upper target, I felt that there were two scenarios possible. But for the next day, I was confident with my analysis. We had some other good calls this week, but this was my favorite.

The chart below is the path that ES took up until the close of trading the next day. I overlaid the arrows on the chart, and as the chart shows, this move was nailed. A 50 point day makes a difference to any trading account.

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MortiES’ Track Record – Week of 17May2010 – We accurately forecasted 50 points of market action!

Written by Mortie
May 23rd, 2010 at 7:16 pm

This chart was posted after the end of trading on 17May2010. It was a straight forward application of typical Elliott analysis, combined with Fibonacci targets and GET’s MOB. The first green circle was identified as the most typical level for a reversal. The smile at the low of the current correction is there because we hit that target from the day before. We were on a run! The arrows on my projections are not time sensitive, they don’t predict the slope of the action, only the levels attained. Globex is usually going to have a much less severe slope than the regular session.

The chart below is a record of the trading the next day. I superimposed red translucent arrows on my projections from the day before. We accurately forecasted 50 points of market action!

Here is what an investor said today about me!

And here is how another investor today praised Elliott Wave Analyis

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MortiES’ Track Record Week of 3May2010

Written by Mortie
May 10th, 2010 at 7:23 pm

Here is my 2May2010 End-of-Day post. It was a rather bold projection for the next day, but I could see no other high probability, alternative scenario.

This is the way the market unfolded the next day. I don’t guarantee results like this every day. The market doesn’t make moves like this every day. But when I only have one arrow on my projection for trading the next day and a highlighted target area, I am not hedging my bets.

The best way to see what we do on a daily basis and on an intraday basis is to try our Premium Content.

If this site doesn’t add back more than the price of admission, then you have no obligation to subscribe after one month, and you will have still learned some Elliott. All you have to do to start your 30 day Free Trial to MortiES’ Premium Content is go to:

http://www.bostonwealth.net/subscribe-to-morties-premium/ and then clicking on

or just click the “Sign Up” button above!

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MortiES’ Track Record Week of 26Apr2010

Written by Mortie
May 1st, 2010 at 1:02 pm

When I posted the first chart below on the night of 29Apr2010, many were calling for new highs the next day. ES was pushing the limits for my reversal scenario to get us to new lows and the end of a proper W4. I’ve seen ES push the limits for retracements so many times in the past, that although I was getting less sure of my opinion, I was going to stick with it up to the 78.6% retracement level.

Posted EOD 29April 2010:

This is the market action for the next day. I used the same regular hours trading chart as above, but indicated where Globex went during the night. Interestingly, both of my projected paths were followed – one by Globex and one by trading during regular hours.

I especially like to post these spectacular moves, but every week we have equally good projections on the smaller action. Major reversals are always the calls we want to brag about. Ben has to harass me to get these track record posts done.

The best way to see what we do on a daily basis and on an intraday basis is to try our Premium Content.

http://www.bostonwealth.net/subscribe-to-morties-premium/ and then clicking on

or just click the “Sign Up” button above!

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MortiES’ EOD Analysis 27April2010 ~ Entering Dangerous Ground!

Written by Mortie
April 27th, 2010 at 5:45 pm

This is the post and chart my premium subscribers received this evening: If you like what you see here, wait to see how MortiES’s analysis can assist you in your everyday investing or trading strategy! Go ahead., Click on “Subscribe to MortiES Premium” and give it a try! I am offering a 30 day free trial period.

I always get myself in trouble when I start finding triangles forming. This is not the first time a triangle failed and the bottom fell out of the market. Seeing it twice will make me more alert to this possibility in the future. I remember a failed triangle a few months back that resulted in a similar severe correction. The fact is, you can’t predict a severe correction like this. When they happen, you just have to react. I did well with the market closing the gap this morning. I then was looking for a long, but the market never gave me a good setup at the usual buy-the-dip level, and I then watched the market plummet. I didn’t chase the trend, so I had to be satisfied with my morning green.

I have to call the end of W3 again. That means we are in W4 of the move up from early February. Corrections are the most difficult patterns to trade. When they become complex, it is impossible (for me) to project future action on a short term basis. I’ll be expecting a rally once Wave A is complete – and it looks almost complete at the EOD. The typical Wave B rally is 50-62% of the entire impulsive move (W1-5).