Value of Perfect Information

Name: Neboxian

Web Site: http://neboxian.blogspot.com/

Twitter: Neboxian

Bio: I'm an active Options, Futures and Forex Trader...Have been trading and investing from 1976. I hope what I share will help those who are eager to learn the... Tao ( The Way) of the Markets. During the 1980's I was a Regional Vice President for First American National Securities and Later founded and sold USA Financial Services. Now I just Trade at home for myself.

Posts by Neboxian:

SPY Evening Star

Written by Neboxian
November 12th, 2009 at 7:28 pm



The Evening Star is a Reversal Candle Pattern.
This dotted yellow line and blue candle is what the next trading day should look like.




Breadth, Charts, Markets | Comment (1)

Ending Diagonal SPX 500

Written by Neboxian
November 7th, 2009 at 1:17 pm



Ending Diagonal SPX

The Market set up very nice for a reversal Monday with a terminating signal at the end of the C wave and the top of wave 2 with a potential of very nasty and long downward wave 3 to begin.

We could see a bit of an overthrow at the open to touch the top of the Rising Bear Wedge ….stops should be placed above the resistance zone ….if it gets above there this is not an ABC Retracement but a possible resumption of the larger up trend.

http://neboxian.blogspot.com/2008/08/triangle-reversal-pattern-part-3-of-3.html

Here is a Video I made on reversal triangles the Technical term for them is Ending Diagonal but I try to use more generic terms …What is Important is to get an understanding of the basic concept.
http://neboxian.blogspot.com/2009/07/markit-tao-thurs-7-23-09.html
Here is an example of an ending diagonal Failure….. that’s why I encourage stops…..if ED’s fail they are very explosive… and if ED’S work they are as equally successful…..

follow me on twitter     http://twitter.com/Neboxian



Breadth, Charts, Commentary, Elliott Wave, Markets | Comments (2)

SPX 500 Top or Another Leg UP?

Written by Neboxian
September 30th, 2009 at 11:08 pm



Sorry I have been gone so long but I saw an opportunity to take some time off and it looks like now is the best time to jump back into action.

Asymmetrical Triangles Don’t usually form as the final wave of a Top. They are typically a wave 4 formation.

This Triangle is not complete ….but if this plays out over the next two days, this suggests we could see another leg up.

This formation at the top of a Bear Wedge could become very whippy .

I Don’t intend to play the first break up or down. I expect both will be false.
The safest play here is to go long the SPY above SPX 1077 or short below SPX 1040… Otherwise I’ll trade in the Spx 1045 to 1070 zone as a sideways trending channel.

Everything is telling me we are at or very near the top of this  7 month long ABC pattern.

The biggest thing we have been fighting here is Bi- Polar market data … There are so many conflicting fundamental Data signals it is difficult to see a clear direction until there is a clean break above 1082 or below 1040.

It is still easy for the media people to make a Bear or Bull case in either direction and this creates confusion.

The most reliable approach will be to take the position the News and Data are already in the charts and stay with chart formation, pure technical and Elliot Wave analysis.



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NeboXian's Extreme SPX Bollinger & Evening Star

Written by Neboxian
August 25th, 2009 at 9:16 pm



 



This is the Third Extreme Bollinger Band touch of the Daily SPX with an Evening Star  potential Pattern. The Evening Star  is a Reversal Candle Pattern and should confirm on end of next trade session with a red candle closing half way down the previous Day or in this case with 2 Doji’s the Friday candle would work also… We can expect the Keltner Channel (purple)to flip to the flat side and price should trade sideways for 3 to 4 days and at least return to the Mean Spx 1001. We saw this happen the beginning of May where price turned down quikly and then again in June but price traded sideways for 9 days before turning down. This time I expect to see the price move to the lower top  BB band Spx 975 over the next 7 to 16 days. Sometimes after conformation this structure will retrace to the Star High within 3 to 7 candles …This would be the best low risk high reward short entry. If price breaks more than 10 points above the high exit short and wait for retest of SPX 1041 support for long entry.



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Few Big Buyers Today… So Far

Written by Neboxian
August 21st, 2009 at 1:05 pm

 



This is Today’s NYSE Tick there was  only a few  Big + 750  buyers to get the  Rally push started  but no real follow through so far.

=================================================================================

 



This is Wed 08-19 08 Rally day. Notice the Big +750 to  + 1000 Ticks all day. Those are the Big boys.



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The Next 90 Minutes is All I Want to See

Written by Neboxian
August 21st, 2009 at 2:07 am

I don’t want to read about how the banks are fudging the earnings reports. I don’t care if AIG can pay back the government. Who gives a Rats A$%%  if  Bernanke Prints another Brazillion Dollars over the weekend. Conspiracy and market manipulation theories are just a huge distraction and entertaining them is a big waste of time and emotional capital.   As a Day Trader, all I want to know is what will happen in the next 6 hours or actually, The First 90 Minutes at the market open and the last 2 hours into the close.

Oh I agree, being aware of the big picture is a good thing to know.  Trading the momentum of the open and into the close is less of a fundamental play and more of a Live Pin Ball type of analysis. The Morning action is off Asian and European moves bouncing off Fib’s, Support, Resistance, and catalyst such as earnings or critical news release events into or just after the open.

As a Trader, you must isolate your mind from any Emotional Bias. You can’t let the long term Time Frame or the parade of talking heads and esoteric columnists cloud the short term trading action of a few hours in a day.
Remember, the time horizons of the  these many experts opinions range from 3 months to 3 years. A Day Trader has a much shorter time frame more like 15 min’s to 2 Hrs.

If you want to be a happy successful Day Trader, learn to push those long term thoughts to the side and concentrate on what only effects the first 2 hours of the trading day. Long Range opinions of what may happen two weeks or two months or two years from now are most likely all ready priced into the market and not necessarily relevant to the next 90 min trading session.

This is my daily AM Routine

• Day Traders do not hold positions overnight. Having a position will bias the outcome of your analysis and it will be hard to be objective.
• Do your home work and big picture Technical , Fundamental Analysis on the weekend.
• Then do the Small time frame studies the night before.
  Try to identify 3 different what if possibilities for the first 2 hours of trade and how you would handle each one. Include the best entry and exit points along with the best position to place your stop. I usually want to be out of the AM trade about the close of the European session 12:00 EST. And I will not carry a trade over night.
• Then write down all 3 of your plans. Arrange them into order from most likely to least likely.
• Get up early with a fresh mind and scan the business news headlines. Do the Joe Friday bit. “Just the Facts Please.” Are they overall Bullish or Bearish?
• Try not to read the opinion articles or listen to Market opinion TV commentary before the  open. Rick Santelli and Art Cashin are the only exceptions.  Save the rest  till after the close.
• Then Look at what Asia and Europe are doing over night.
  Are they in a rally or selling off?
• Then look at the US Dollar.
  From yesterday is it trending up or down?
  For now the US Dollar and Equities are inverse.
  Dollar up / Equities down.
• The price of Oil.
  From yesterday is it trending up or down?
  For now Oil and Equities are trending together.
• Then finally look at the S&P 500 Futures. Traders call it the “ES”.
  Based on yesterdays ES and overnight 24 hour range High and Low, how is it trending and trading in relation to the close of the $SPX.
  The ES direction will most times carry over to the equities market open.
  The overall momentum of all these combined will most times determine the direction of the first 90 min’s.
• As you work through this Pre Market check list , Weigh the 3 probabilities of your previous night’s home work.
• Finally check for key reports or news scheduled to be released like GDP,CPI, Jobs, Earnings, Sentiment, ect.
• When the Bell rings you are ready to put your plan into action.



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Looking Back to Find The Next Big Wave

Written by Neboxian
August 18th, 2009 at 2:02 am


This is a Chart of SPX 500 from 1950 to 1975. After a long rally from 1950 this chart shows an Expanding Triangle that lasted 10 years.

This period of history represents a major Redistribution of Social Paradigms and Economic Wealth within the United States. Beginning with the end of the Korean War to the Cuban Missile Crises The Viet-Nam War, Racial unrest, Martin Luther King, WoodStock, Kent State, Equal Rights and The Great Society of the late 60′s. The NASA Space Program. The advent of the Personal Computer , the first big Oil supply Crunch and finally the movement of the US Manufacturing base to the Pacific Rim.

From the “E” position the market trend was sideways (digesting the redistribution)until 1982 another 8- 10 years ending with the first seismic collapse of the US Oil Patch , Auto and Housing Industry.
This is the time frame I began investing and trading the markets.

The parallels in this current market all feel and look similar to the 30 years leading up to the mid 80′s except on a much larger scale. At the time, I did not understand the power of technology waves or the opportunity presented buy redistribution of wealth in capital markets.

I think we are at a new beginning of the next big 25 year wave. There are so many things lining up for this next big move. But it will be on a Global scale not isolated to the US Markets  the SPX or Dow .

Take a look at this chart of the Dow for the past 25 years 1985 to present.

It looks Identical to the first chart of the 60′s.

The second Chart Of The DOW shows the huge growth of the beginning of the Technology wave the Internet and the opening of Markets around the world. This was marked by beginning of the Cell Phone ,the Internet and the Development of Stock Markets in country’s outside the US and Europe .

The Second Expanding Triangle Represents another Major Redistribution of Social Paradigms and Economic Wealth on a World scale.

This past Year as a world society and people, we are just now becoming self aware of how interdependent each and every country has become. WE are all looking at the world we share in a new light.

The Mobil Media, Green Technology, Medical and Agricultural Advances  including clean Water are the beginning of the next huge global wave.

The Experts are looking for the next big drop in the markets. Short of a Surprise catastrophic event, I don’t see any real catalysis to drive the markets as a whole  substantially lower.

Yes, there are still going to be some  mild corrections,  business failures and jobs lost. It will take the US economy and consumer a few years to recover but there is a whole new world of new consumers now and their numbers are growing quickly.

The US economy grew very fast at the advent and distribution of Television  in the 50′s . TV was a window to educate  and create  expectations while raising  aspirations of the American population.

With the Global Mobil Media, the World is in the equivalent of the US 50′s and 60′s. It was a wonderful time to grow up  and now the world will be able to reach out and obtain  many of the same dreams for their families.

I believe this expanding triangle Consolidation will trend sideways for the next 5-8 years rotating around the white shaded area.  This is a reasonable period of time for the world to digest the  global redistribution away from the US (they really don’t need us any more to grow) before a new trend will resume to the upside. These new advances are finding their footholds in Asia, India, South America and eventually Africa.

The big question is how much will the US  participate in the new global theater?



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NQ is Still The Leader

Written by Neboxian
August 3rd, 2009 at 9:27 am



Overnight The NQ Was the laggard in the European rally With a Double Top
Formation. Caution is advised up here.

[tags]NQ,Double Top[/tags]



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Bollinger Band Deviation Follow Up

Written by Neboxian
July 30th, 2009 at 5:35 pm



This is a follow up of my post over the weekend of the SPX extreme Bollinger Band penetration.

http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/25/bollinger-band-third-rail-deviation-spx-analysis/

This 2 hour candle chart and the first candle of the market open penetrating the 3rd extreme Bollinger Band suggests price will track sideways and return to the mean.

Notice the MACD divergence is still in play.

With the a.m. Globex momentum follow through into the US Market open, it is very important to follow the Asian and European markets overnight trading.

It is very possible we will have one more lift in the a.m. session. Also with the US Dollar beginning to show some strength, this could be the beginning of a market REVERSAL late in the Day and into next week.

We will see how things look a few hours before the open. I am cautious here and will be out of the market by close Friday.

Follow my SPY Day Trades live on Twitter. http://twitter.com/Neboxian

[tags]SPX 500, S&P 500, Extreme Bollinger Band ,Bollinger Band, MACD,MACD divergence,US Dollar ,Reversal[/tags]



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Be Careful Chasing Sugar Pops!

Written by Neboxian
July 30th, 2009 at 11:23 am



ES Futures are testing weekly highs overnight.

US Dollar is down.

Crude up.

Gold up.

Asia / Euro stocks up.

News tape bearish with declining earnings stories and increasing jobs losses.

Yesterday I could not get a clear signal what the market wants to do and this a.m. is more of the same.

SPY will gap up at open and my guess based on news tape it will begin to sell off by 10:30 A.M. EST………… Neboxian says ” If the way is not clear, the best action is no action.”

For now I am flat (no positions).

———————————————————————————————-

10:45 a.m. EST…. Be careful chasing this Sugar Pop the NYSE TICK suggests there are no BIG Buyers moving in up here… I just entered an SPY PUT play @ 99.80.

11:55 a.m. EST …. I just exited my SPY put @ 99.20. nice scalp! Follow my trades on Twitter … http://twitter.com/Neboxian

[tags]ES Futures,Crude,SPY, NYSE Tick[/tags]



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