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4:30pm EST: Solid consolidation day in the 1138 to 1141 area after Friday’s big run up. Not much was resolved today in determination of the near term market direction. For the pimary count, I think wave (5)-1-[5] is going to consolidate above the 1132/33 gap area and then make move towards 1150+. I have an ultimate target of about 1165 for the inverse head and shoulders on the 60-min chart. The 1167 to 1175 area is a key resistance area for the SP-500 and it will likely take a future wave 3-[5] to break through this area. Also, it’s very possilbe that wave (5)-1-[5] has ended at 1141, as the alternate count indicates, and there will be a wave 2-[5] retrace of a least 38% down to about 1105.
Next Wed March 16th is the FOMC meeting announcement and next Friday March 19th is OPEX. For the past year, both FOMC and OPEX weeks have been bullish in the early part of the week. So, if the SP-500 can hold support this week, there is a good chance that new highs in the 1160/65 area could be on the way as wave 1-[5] extends.
60-min Chart (EOD):
Daily SP-500 Bull Model (EOD):
This wave v-(5) extension has broken through some tough resistance between 1127 and 1133. Let’s see it can cosolidate here above 1130 and set the stage from more gains. There is also a new gap opened at 1125 this morning that could provide near term support. Updated 15-min and 60-min charts are below.
March 10, 2010: Financial Stocks Moving Up
Written by PUGridironMarch 10th, 2010 at 6:15 pm
5:40pm EST: On the SP-500 daily candles chart, notice that both raw volume and on-balance volume are increasing and are above the Jan 2010 high. This is a bullish signal of strength.
SP-500 Daily Candles (EOD):
4:45pm EST: Deja Vu. Higher highs (1148 vs 1145) and higher lows (1140 vs 1137). The SP-500 have hit my initial target area of 1145/50 for wave 1-[5]. I still think there could be some extension if wave 1-[5] into the 1160/65 area. The 1160/65 target terminates near my mid-channel line on the daily SP-500 chart. I’m thinking the wave 2-[5] pull-back my be shallow. A 38% re-trace takes us back to the Inverse Head and Shoulders neckline around 1116, but a 23% pull-back would only drop to about the key 1130/33 support area.
SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):
SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):
11:30am EST: Here’s a little bonus for the non-Alert Service subsribers. Below is my most up-to-date 5-min and 15-min charts. The PUG Alert subscribers get these updated charts a couple times per day.
SP-500 5-min Chart (11:30am):
SP-500 15-min Chart (11:30am):
8:25am EST: ES Futures were basically flat overnight. Continuing to look for more wave (5)-1-[5] extention towards the 1160 target. Financial stocks are really starting to move up and XLF is approaching a new high. This is another sign of returning strength in a bull market.
I’ve noticed most of the Perma-Bear E-Wave blogs have now come out with 9th Revision of their failed P2 Models predicting the SP-500 will advance to 1230 (62% re-trace). They have been calling for a P2 top since 870, 956, 1018, 1140, 1080, 1101, 1115, 1150… So now after 9 attempts at calling a top, the perma-bear bloggers finally have a P2 model that agrees with my P1 end point area of 1200 to 1260. Of course I have only had one model and this 1230 area has been my target since I opened this blog back in Oct 2009. And I will note that both the Nasdaq and Russel-2000 are now solidly beyond their 62% re-trace levels.
60-min ES Futures (EOD):
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