R. McHugh « Value of Perfect Information

Name: R. McHugh

Web Site: https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/

Bio: Robert McHugh, Ph.D. is President and Chief Executive Officer of Main Line Investors, Inc., and the proprietor of the Technical Indicator Index TM. He was the Chief Financial Officer for two of the largest commercial banking corporations in the America for two decades, and has a Doctoral Degree in Finance and a Masters Degree in Business Administration. Dr. McHugh has testified before the U.S. Congress on Federal Reserve matters, and is the author of over a dozen published articles on investment related topics. He has appeared on CBS radio and been quoted in The Wall Street Journal. In addition to authoring McHugh's Financial Forecast & Analysis newsletter each week, Dr. McHugh is a Registered Investment Advisor with Main Line Investors, Inc. offering Portfolio Wealth Management Services to Pennsylvania individuals and businesses. Unfortunately, at this time, Dr. McHugh is unable to accept any new clients. Dr. McHugh is currently writing a book on how to invest in turbulent times, and is also writing a novel on how a manipulated economy causes the next Great Depression in America, rocking our nation’s political system.

Posts by R. McHugh:

Are Stocks Staring Into the Abyss?

Written by R. McHugh
November 26th, 2011 at 7:27 pm

Europe’s financial woes are serious. We believe the financial crisis will hit the fan starting in 2012 which will eventually lead to a political union of several major European nations, perhaps even a broader political union of western nations including Great Britain, the United States and Canada. It may be what results from developing global economic chaos. This is Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down underway from May 2nd, 2011, a dangerous Bear Market wave of long-term duration. Life will change by the time it finishes.

Germany’s benchmark bond offering failed Wednesday, which is an alarming development for Europe and for contagion risk to the rest of the globe, as up until now Germany has been seen as the rock that fortifies and protects a complete European meltdown, with a quarter of the continent’s GDP. Now we all know Germany has problems as well. Germany’s Central Bank had to buy 39 percent of the 6 billion euros offering ($10.0 billion equivalency). In other words, Germany just printed $3.9 billion equivalency dollars out of thin air to pay its bills. Weimer Republic anyone? Not good.

So what is happening? We are entering Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down, the mother of all Bear Markets. In the past, we have seen Bear markets affect the solvency of corporations and individuals. Now we see a new Bear Market affecting the solvency of sovereign nations and continents. This Bear market is on a Grand scale the likes of which we have not seen in centuries. Here is a chart showing the big picture and how past Bear markets fit in with the scale of this developing one:

Above is a Big Picture Historical Elliott Wave Labeling for the Dow Industrials. It now appears that Grand Supercycle wave {III} up completed May 2nd, 2011 with a Megaphone Top Jaws of Death pattern. This is a major Bearish topping pattern. We cannot be completely sure that this Cycle Degree wave V up finished its Megaphone pattern because if the fifth wave (E) up finished on May 2nd, 2011, it means it truncated or failed to rise to the upper boundary. This leaves open the possibility that wave (E) up may have one more strong rally left in it to reach the upper boundary. There are no hard and fast rules. If the top is in on May 2nd, 2011, then the mother of all declines, Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down, has started, which will be so bad, it could be a coming Tribulation period of political and economic upheaval, war, pestilence, and natural disasters. Then a golden era, Grand Supercycle degree wave {V} up will follow. The Great Depression was of Supercycle degree, wave (IV) down, and was not of Grand Supercycle degree, like the coming Bear Market will be, which means this developing Bear Market, which is in its infancy, will be worse.

Do not be satisfied hearing what the market did; learn how to predict what the market is going to do. Join us at www.technicalindicatorindex.com as we study the language of the markets. Markets tell where they are headed. Technical Analysis is the science where we learn and apply the language of the markets. The Dow Industrials have declined 675 points so far since our amazing trend-finder Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell Signal in November.

We cover a host of indicators and patterns, and present charts for most major markets in our International and U.S. Market reports, available to subscribers at www.technicalindicatorindex.com

If you would like to follow us as we analyze precious metals, mining stocks, and major stock market indices around the globe, you can get a Free 30 day trial subscription by going to www.technicalindicatorindex.com and clicking on the Free Trial button at the upper right of the home page. We prepare daily and expanded weekend reports, and also offer mid-day market updates 3 to 4 times a week for our subscribers.

“Jesus said to them, “I am the bread of life; he who comes to Me

shall not hunger, and he who believes in Me shall never thirst.

For I have come down from heaven,

For this is the will of My Father, that everyone who beholds

the Son and believes in Him, may have eternal life;

and I Myself will raise him up on the last day.”

John 6: 35, 38, 40

Robert McHugh Ph.D. is President and CEO of Main Line Investors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, and can be reached at www.technicalindicatorindex.com. The statements, opinions, buy and sell signals, and analyses presented in this newsletter are provided as a general information and education service only. Opinions, estimates, buy and sell signals, and probabilities expressed herein constitute the judgment of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Nothing contained in this newsletter is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. Neither Main Line Investors, Inc. nor Robert D. McHugh, Jr., Ph.D. Editor shall be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Copyright 2011, Main Line Investors, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Charts, Commentary, Elliott Wave, Markets | No Comments

Making Money Trading the Market

Written by R. McHugh
July 10th, 2011 at 12:45 pm

You can make a ton of money trading the market. Trading can be very short-term (one or two days), short-term (1 to 4 weeks) or longer. Trading one week or longer involves market timing. The key to making money is knowing when to buy, what instrument to trade in, and when to sell. This article will discuss all three, but focuses primarily on trading in a one to four week time frame.

A 3 to 5 percent move in stocks can produce returns of 20 to 100 percent or more in the options markets. Trading options is best conducted using no more than a 4 week time frame because the time premium built into the price of options works against the price gain you are realizing from a move in the markets. When trading options, the key is when to get in, making sure when you get in when there is a 3 to 5 percent move coming, and when to get out before the trend (even a corrective counter move) occurs, which can eat up all your profits very fast. Trading options requires having access to terrific momentum measure indicators. The problem with Full Stochastic, RSI and MACD Momentum indicators is that they can stay overbought or oversold for a long time, and if you rely upon them for entry, you may be getting in far too soon. They do provide nice early warning background, a get “ready signal” for when to enter. However, you need a trigger indicator that won’t get faked out when a new trend that can be traded for profit is starting.

We have found that the best indicator as a trigger to enter a trade is our own Purchasing Power Indicator. It has done a remarkable job identifying high probability 1 to 4 week trend turns that result in 3 to 5 percent moves, enough to make a nice profit on an options trade. This indicator is a stock market indicator we present to subscribers every night in our market newsletters at www.technicalindicatorindex.com. While it is not perfect, it is very good. The following chart and tables show its performance since March 2009, when the current Bull Market started.

Since it triggered a new buy signal on June 21st, 2011, which appeared to many to come out of the blue, but this indicator is smart, a cold calculation of market internal data and momentum, since this buy signal on June 21st, the Industrials have risen 406 points, 3.3 percent. It saw this past week’s mega rally coming before pretty much everyone. All was doom and gloom when our PPI generated a new buy signal that proved prescient once again.

The beauty of short-term market timing trading is you get opportunities to make money during the impulsive stock market moves in the direction of the primary long-term trend, but also you get to play the better corrective counter-trend moves as well. You can make money whether stocks go up or down. Given the normal cycle of market moves, there could be as many as 20 or 30 moves of 3 to 5 percent per year! That is a lot of trading opportunity that buy and hold completely misses.

We also have another terrific stock trend turn indicator that is excellent at identifying tradable trend turns. It is call our Secondary Trend Indicator, which we present every night in our market forecasting newsletters. This indicator generated a new buy signal on June 17th, telling us the June 15th market low was going to stick. Since that buy signal, the Dow Industrials have risen 592 points, or 5.0 percent. These are the kinds of tools that market timing traders can use to make a lot of money!

S&P/DJIA Purchasing Power Indicator

Performance of Our Purchasing Power Indicator Buy Signals
from March 2009 through June 2011

PPI Buy Signal Date	S&P 500 Closing Price	Date of Furthest Price Move In Direction of Signal	Furthest Extent Of Price Move	Price Gains	Percent Move
3/10/09	719.6	3/26/09	832.98	113.38	15.76%
4/2/09	834.38	4/17/09	875.63	41.25	4.94%
4/23/09	851.92	5/8/09	930.17	78.25	9.19%
5/18/09	909.71	6/11/09	956.23	46.52	5.11%
6/25/09	920.26	7/1/09	931.92	11.66	1.27%
7/13/09	901.05	8/7/09	1018	116.95	12.98%
8/21/09	1026.13	8/26/09	1039.47	13.34	1.30%
9/8/09	1025.39	9/23/09	1080.15	54.76	5.34%
10/6/09	1054.72	10/21/09	1101.36	46.64	4.42%
10/29/09	1066.11	10/30/09	1033.38	-32.73	-3.07%
11/5/09	1066.63	12/4/09	1119.13	52.5	4.92%
1/4/10	1132.99	1/19/10	1150.45	17.46	1.54%
2/16/10	1094.87	4/9/10	1194.66	99.79	9.11%
5/10/10	1159.73	5/13/10	1173.57	13.84	1.19%
5/27/10	1103.06	5/28/10	1102.59	-0.47	-0.04%
6/2/10	1098.38	6/3/10	1105.67	7.29	0.66%
6/10/10	1086.84	6/21/10	1131.23	44.39	4.08%
7/7/10	1060.27	7/13/10	1099.46	39.19	3.70%
7/22/10	1093.67	8/9/10	1129.24	35.57	3.25%
9/1/10	1080.29	10/25/10	1196.14	115.85	10.72%
11/2/10	1193.57	11/5/10	1227.08	33.51	2.81%
12/1/10	1206.07	1/27/11	1301.29	95.22	7.90%
2/1/11	1307.59	2/18/11	1344.07	36.48	2.79%
3/3/11	1330.97	3/4/11	1331.08	0.11	0.01%
3/21/11	1298.38	4/8/11	1339.46	41.08	3.16%
4/20/11	1330.46	5/2/11	1370.58	40.12	3.02%
5/31/11	1345.2	5/31/11	1345.2	0	0.00%
6/21/11	1295.52	7/1/11	1341.01	45.49	3.51%
Rally Points From 3/9/09 to 12/31/10
			Total	1207.44
S&P at 3/9/10				676.53
S&P at 7/1/11				1339.67
Rise in Index			Total	663.14
Conclusion: PPI Signals Identified 182 % of the Up Points as the S&P 500 Rose

Performance of Our Purchasing Power Indicator Sell Signals
from March 2009 through June 2011

PPI Sell Signal Date	S&P 500 Closing Price	Date of Furthest Price Move In Direction of Signal	Furthest Extent Of Price Move	Price Gains	Percent Move
2/10/09	827.16	3/6/09	666.79	160.37	19.39%
3/30/09	787.53	4/1/09	783.32	4.21	0.53%
4/20/09	832.39	4/21/09	826.83	5.56	0.67%
5/13/09	883.92	5/15/09	878.94	4.98	0.56%
6/16/09	911.97	6/23/09	888.68	23.29	2.55%
7/2/09	896.42	7/8/09	869.32	27.1	3.02%
8/17/09	979.73	8/19/09	980.62	-0.89	-0.09%
9/1/09	998.04	9/2/09	991.97	6.07	0.61%
10/1/09	1029.85	10/2/09	1019.95	9.9	0.96%
10/26/09	1066.95	10/28/09	1042.19	24.76	2.32%
10/30/09	1036.19	11/2/09	1029.38	6.81	0.66%
12/17/09	1096.07	12/18/09	1093.88	2.19	0.20%
1/21/10	1116.48	2/5/10	1044.5	71.98	6.45%
4/16/10	1192.13	5/6/10	1065.79	126.34	10.60%
5/14/10	1135.68	5/25/10	1040.78	94.9	8.36%
6/1/10	1070.71	6/2/10	1072.03	-1.32	-0.12%
6/4/10	1064.88	6/8/10	1042.17	22.71	2.13%
6/24/10	1073.69	7/1/10	1010.91	62.78	5.85%
7/16/10	1064.88	7/20/10	1056.88	8	0.75%
8/11/10	1089.47	8/27/10	1039.7	49.77	4.57%
10/19/10	1165.9	11/2/10	1187.86	-21.96	-1.88%
11/12/10	1199.21	11/29/10	1173.64	25.57	2.13%
1/28/11	1276.34	1/31/11	1276.5	-0.16	-0.01%
2/22/11	1315.44	2/24/11	1294.26	21.18	1.61%
3/10/11	1295.11	3/16/11	1249.05	46.06	3.56%
4/18/11	1305.14	4/19/11	1303.97	1.17	0.09%
5/5/11	1335.1	5/25/11	1311.8	23.3	1.75%
6/1/11	1314.55	6/16/11	1258.07	56.48	4.30%
Decline Points From 2/10/09 to 10/29/10
			Total	861.15
Conclusion: PPI Signals Caught Significant Price Moves

Times are tough right now. Making money is important. Protecting money is important. Being aggressive with a small budget of funds you are willing to take a chance with, and trade, requires discipline and a willingness to lose money from time to time, but can be very beneficial.

We have a Platinum Trading Service at www.technicalindicatorindex.com where we do the trading with our own money, in real time, that subscribers can follow along with, for either educational purposes, or for ideas to do their own market timing trading within 15 minutes of when we trade.

A trader can make a lot of money without risking a lot of money. By buying Call or Put options long, our loss risk is limited to the amount of money we invest in the options. In our Platinum Trading Service, for the first 6 months of 2011 we limited risk to an average trade of ½ percent of our total portfolio capital, and were able to gain a return on that investment of 282 percent – in just the first six months of 2011. If you had $25,000 of risk capital, that could have been turned into $70,000 in six months using our Platinum Trading Service. That is a nice return with the only downside risk being ½ or one percent of one’s portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but the point is, the Purchasing Power Indicator, used in connection with other momentum indicators we follow, resulted in terrific results with minimum risk.

If someone did not want to join our Platinum Trading Service, did not need the hand holding, they could simply use our Purchasing Power Indicator and other indicators of their own choosing to conduct trades themselves in either the options market, or another market which also presents terrific opportunities for market timing traders:

The leveraged ETF market allows someone to enter a position with trading funds and enjoy a move that is two or even three times the move that the S&P 500, the Dow Industrials, or any other stock index one is playing moves without being in the options market where there is an expiration date. For simple educational purposes (I am not selling or recommending these ETFs, you must do your own due diligence) the following ETF’s offer leveraging opportunities to play these three markets to decline:

SDOW Ultra Pro Short Dow 30 Industrials (Leveraged Targets 300 % Daily Move)
SPXU Ultra Pro Short S&P 500 (Leveraged Targets 300 % Daily Move)
SQQQ Ultra Pro Short QQQ NASDAQ 100 (Leveraged Targets 300 % Daily Move)

And, if you want to play these markets to rally, but want to see your investment move three times as the stock index moves, here are three ETFs to consider:

UDOW Ultra Pro Dow 30 Industrials (Leveraged ETF Targeting 300% Daily Move)
UPRO Ultra Pro S&P 500 3X (Leveraged ETF Targeting 300% of Daily Move)
TQQQ Ultra Pro QQQ NDX 100 3X (Leveraged ETF Targeting 300% of Daily Move)

Not all trades are winners, but we have found that by limiting the amount invested, and using reliable (not perfect but right more than wrong) momentum trend turn indicators such as our Purchasing Power Indicator, the gains exceed the losses over time, and the net result of return on investment is pretty darned good.

Successful trading not only takes discipline to wait for signal changes to enter, and discipline to limit the amount invested to an amount we can afford to lose, but it also requires knowing when to sell, to either take losses on a losing trade and get out, or when to take a profit on a winning trade. Exiting is in the eye of the beholder, depending upon the trader’s risk appetite, experience, and financial position. We like to set a goal, and once that profit goal is achieved, to grab the money and run. You will never lose money taking profits. The temptation is always to get greedy, and stay in too long. This is where judgment, experience, and discipline help a lot. Are you happy with a 20 percent profit in an options trade? A 50 percent profit? Not may trades go to 100 percent, but some do. That decision requires a gut check. We like to sell at the sleep-at-night level. Certainly market conditions play a part, but the best read on a market can go sour fast with news events or a fast turn in market psychology. Some people like to enter when we get a new buy or sell signal in our Purchasing Power Indicator and then sell when certain reliable momentum indicators approach overbought or oversold in the direction of the trade.

We offer you the option of calling your own shots at www.technicalindicatorindex.com or plugging into our thoughts and following along with our Platinum Trading Service. The decision is up to you.

We cover a host of indicators and patterns, and present charts for most major markets in our International and U.S. Market reports, available to subscribers at www.technicalindicatorindex.com

If you would like to follow us as we analyze precious metals, mining stocks, and major stock market indices around the globe, you can get a Free 30 day trial subscription by going to www.technicalindicatorindex.com and clicking on the Free Trial button at the upper right of the home page. We prepare daily and expanded weekend reports, and also offer mid-day market updates 3 to 4 times a week for our subscribers.

“Jesus said to them, “I am the bread of life; he who comes to Me
shall not hunger, and he who believes in Me shall never thirst.
For I have come down from heaven,
For this is the will of My Father, that everyone who beholds
the Son and believes in Him, may have eternal life;
and I Myself will raise him up on the last day.”

John 6: 35, 38, 40

Charts, Commentary, Data-Based Indicators, Markets | No Comments

Can The Stock Market Rally Without Bank Stocks Joining?

Written by R. McHugh
May 29th, 2011 at 3:20 pm

The overall stock market won’t have to, because Bank Stocks look ready to rally. Financial look okay, and should join, possibly even lead, the next rally, which should start fairly soon. That would be wave e-up on the chart below.

BKX

The BKX Daily Full Stochastics are on a new buy signal, coming from an oversold level, which is bullish. The price pattern is similar to the major averages, an Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern, but is occurring over a longer period of time, from August 2010, whereas the same pattern in the Industrials and S&P 500 started in March 2011. Wave d-down gave the impression that Financials were diverging against the major averages, which led many commentators to ask, “How can the major averages rally without the Financials?” That impression was because the wave d-down in major averages started in May 2011, whereas wave d-down started in February 2011 in the BKX. However, waves d-down in the BKX and in the major averages now look complete.

BKX

The next chart of the BKX shows it has completed a five wave Descending Bullish Wedge pattern for d-down, and its end is punctuated with a Hammer Candlestick pattern formed by last week’s price behavior. Hammer Candlestick patterns are typically bottom signals.

It also looks as if the Weekly MACD is just starting to curl up from its widest divergence point, as last week’s histogram was a smaller negative reading than the week before. This is typical of bottoming action.

Also, the Weekly Full Stochastics are deeply oversold, in a position to support a lengthy rally.

So we are expecting Financials to start a rally soon, one that could be fairly strong.

BKX

We cover a host of indicators and patterns, and present charts for most major markets in our International and U.S. Market reports, available to subscribers at www.technicalindicatorindex.com

John 6: 35, 38, 40

Charts, Commentary, Elliott Wave, Market Indicators, Markets | No Comments

The Primary Trend

Written by R. McHugh
February 13th, 2011 at 5:13 pm

This weekend, we would like to focus on the performance of our Primary Trend Indicator. A Massive Bear Market typically consists of three Primary Trends, the first a declining Primary Trend, the second, an advancing Primary Trend, correcting the first decline. Then the third and final phase is another declining Primary Trend. We are currently finishing the second of these three Primary Trends inside a Grand Supercycle Bear Market, labeled by some as the Great Recession, however we believe that will change to the second Great Depression before all is said and done.

DJIA Primary Degree Trend

The above chart updates our Primary Trend Indicator as of January, 2011, the long-term view, which has nothing to do with the short-term view. It generated a new long-term trend “sell” signal two years ago, September 30th, 2008, just as the autumn stock market crash started. when the DJIA closed at 10,850.66, the first change from the buy signal October 31st, 2003, five years earlier, and the first sell signal since 2000. We saw a 4,400 point drop after this sell signal was triggered. On May 31st, 2010 the PTI generated a new buy signal, and it remains on a buy signal as of January 31st, 2010. Since that buy signal, the Industrials have risen 2,145 points (21.2 %).

Here is how the Primary Trend Indicator works: One of the tools we have in our arsenal to identify the status of a Primary Degree trend is a simple analysis of the 14 month moving average versus a Slower moving average calculation, the 5 month MA of the 14 month. It has been terrific at identifying multi-year trends, both up and down. While it is a little late in generating the buy and sell signals, it triggered a “sell” near the start of Primary degree wave (4) down, in mid 2000. What followed was a two and a half year, 39 percent drop into the wave (4) bottom on October 10th, 2002. It took a while for this indicator to confirm that the rally that started on October 11th, 2002 would in fact be a multi-year primary degree wave up, wave (5) up. But in October 2003, this analytical tool did in fact trigger a Primary Degree “buy” signal, which led to a four year further rally to new all-time nominal highs on October 11th, 2007 at 14,198.10. We got a near “sell” signal in mid-2005, but the rally rejuvenated itself, continuing on its “buy.”

As of January 31st, 2011, our PTI is now on a “buy.” The spread between the Fast and the Slow went positive in January 2010 for the first time in 20 months.It improved to positive + 410 in April, 2010, and came in at 417 in May, 2010, but interestingly, has fallen to + 228 as of January 31st, 2011, perhaps an early indication this buy signal will not last much longer. This compares to a 1,744 positive spread in December 2003. We require a 5 month moving average of the Spread between the Fast and Slow to reverse in a new direction for 3 consecutive months in order to declare that a new primary trend, a new multi-year trend, is underway. March 2010 generated the first of the three required consecutive positive readings in the 5 month moving average for a buy, April generated the second, and May 2010 generated the third, so a new buy signal was triggered. While we need to respect this new buy signal, the 20 Month/40 Month has not confirmed, and there are a host of dangerous warnings suggesting prices could turn back down hard. If so, this new buy signal could reverse to a new sell signal by mid-2011.

There had only been three signals since 1997 before the new buy signal in May 2010, so this tool is useful for long-term investors, as it filters out the noise of up and down corrections of significance in favor of the primary trend. September 2008 was the third signal, and May 2010′s was the fourth.

This chart is useful for our Conservative Balanced Investment Portfolio since once we get a new signal, in the past we have been able to rely upon that signal for years. Further, it tells us which direction surprises are likely to occur, so when playing speculative options or futures, we will know the direction where a surprise trend turn is most likely. Knowledge of the primary trend is also useful for trading. In this case, we can be more aggressive when entering a position in the same direction as the primary trend, and less aggressive when entering a short-term trend play against the primary trend.

DJIA 20-Month versus 40-Month Moving Average

Next, we look at the chart shown above as a confirming indicator of the Primary Trend Indicator.. It is a comparison of the position of the 20 Month Moving average versus the 40 month. As of February 28th, 2009, the 20 Month/40 Month Spread went negative, which was the first time that happened since August 2004. In February 2009 the 20 Month fell 145 points below the 40 month, down from May 2008′s peak positive 1,026 spread. It worsened to negative -345 March 31st, 2009, to negative -751 in May 2009, and worsened to negative -1,723 in March 2010. It remains negative in January 2011, at -205, but is moving toward confirming the May 2010 Bull Market Signal. Unless stocks fall soon and hard, this signal could confirm a Bull Market signal by March or April. What is helpful about this indicator, is that once we get this indicator’s confirming “buy” or “sell,” we can look forward with high confidence to a large chunk of the primary trend’s move still being ahead of us.

For example, the 20 month MA crossed below the 40 month MA in February 2002, with the Dow Industrials at 10,106. From that “sell” signal point, the DJIA dropped 2,909 points, or 28.8 percent. That suggested a great spot to purchase Leaps Put options.

Then, going the other way, the 20 month MA rose above the 40 month MA in August 2004, at DJIA 10,174. The Dow Industrials then rose 4,106 points, or 40.35 percent. Here, your strategy could have been to either play long-term leaps call options, or to simply go long in the cash market and stay there, in other words, increase your long investment position.

There were no false crossovers or cross-unders with this confirming 20 Month/40 Month MA measure over the past decade. Once it turned negative, the trend was down. Once it went positive, the trend was up. Short-term countertrend moves can occur within the primary trend.

So, what we can conclude is there are now conflicting signals between the PTI and the confirming 20 Month/40 Month, so conservative investors may want to seek a neutral corner until the picture clears up.

We update these primary indicators regularly for our subscribers.

Available now, McHugh’s exclusive Platinum Trading Service.

Check out our Standard Subscription Specials at the Subscribe Today button at www.technicalindicatorindex.com

We cover a host of indicators and patterns, and present charts for most major markets in our International and U.S. Market reports, available to subscribers at www.technicalindicatorindex.com

John 6: 35, 38, 40

Charts, Commentary, Market Indicators, Markets | No Comments

Trading Secondary Market Trends

Written by R. McHugh
January 30th, 2011 at 3:16 pm

This weekend, we would like to focus on the performance of our Secondary Trend Indicator. The origin of this indicator is the name of our website, Technical Indicator Index. When we first started publishing our research and newsletters, back in 2003, we came up with a basket of indicators which we believed in combination would be a useful trend analysis tool, confirming whether or not current trends were significant, and identifying when new multi-week trends were beginning. It was a short-term/intermediate-term trend-finding indicator. We made modifications to which components deserved to be part of that Index and changed its name to our Secondary Trend Indicator in 2005. We have been presenting this indicator for five years in our newsletters using the same component formula that entire time. The components have remained the same since 2005 because this indicator works. It is time this amazing indicator gets more attention.

While our Secondary Trend Indicator is not one of what we call our “key trend-finder” indicators, it is an independent indicator that can be used to confirm the signals we get from our “key trend-finder” indicators. The STI caught most of the significant trends over the past five years. There were a few false signals, but they quickly reversed and caught the next significant trend.

What is our Secondary Trend Indicator? We have identified 8 statistics or indicators that we believe in combination are critical to the underlying strength or weakness of a market trend. Very simply, we assign a value of positive 1, negative 1, or zero to each of these 8 statistics/indicators every night. We total the results and assign that day’s summation to a running accumulation of every day’s results. Then we subtract from this accumulation a moving average of these summation figures and the difference is our Secondary Trend Indicator. We report this every day in our newsletter to subscribers. For example, for Friday, January 28th, our STI fell 8 points, close to the maximum move that is possible to occur on any given day. We subtracted that from Thursday’s accumulated summation and arrived at our Secondary Trend Indicator reading of positive + 13 as of Friday night. STI readings above zero are buys and STI readings below zero are sells. Simple.

This Secondary Trend Indicator is designed to find investable trends that last anywhere from several days to several weeks, and on occasion, several months. This identifies the trends up and down within the larger Primary Trend. Our Primary Trend Indicator is presented after the end of each month, and our other Primary Long Term trend indicator we follow, Dow Theory Buy and Sell Signals, are reported when they occur. Our proprietary Primary Trend Indicator generated a new Buy signal May 31st, 2010, and since that large degree buy signal, the Industrials have risen 1,883 points, or 18.6 percent.

So, within the Primary Trend, which is identified by our Primary Trend Indicator, we have Secondary trends. Long term investors can take long-term positions based upon the Primary Trend Indicator, and intermediate-term traders/investors can conduct market-timed transactions based upon either the Secondary Trend Indicator or our key trend-finder indicators, or both. Our Platinum Trading Service will use these and several other indicators which we have found make excellent filters to keep us on the right side of high momentum trends, leveraging the amount of trading capital at risk into strong returns.

Currently, both the PTI and STI are on buy signals, but with the STI deteriorating, however our key trend-finder indicators have just moved to a sell signal. So, a short-term to intermediate-term investor could be getting ready to move to a short position (or move to cash and stay out of the market if conservative), or perhaps take a light short or light exiting position now, and then move into a heavier short or exiting position once the Secondary Trend Indicator confirms the key indicator sell signal with a sell signal of its own. The best time to enter is right after new signals are generated. Jumping in after these signals have been in place for a while has more risk because every trend has time limitations, and the more time that has passed, the more likely the trend is maturing. The Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator shown in a chart on page one of every newsletter is yet another short-to-intermediate term trend indicator that should add confidence to the trend at hand, and to trend turns. It is very nice when the Secondary Trend Indicator, the key trend-finder indicators (all three, the Purchasing Power Indicator, the 30 Day Stochastic, and the 14 Day Stochastic), and the Demand Power/Supply Pressure indicators are all in agreement. We got a new exit long positions signal in the DP/SP indicator Friday, so that is now deteriorating also.

These indicators should be the primary focus of investors and traders using our service. But while these are the objective signals we follow, we also pay attention to studies that give big picture guidance of over-the-horizon risks. Elliott Wave analysis, RSI, MACD, and Full Stochastics, pattern analysis, cycle turn analysis such as phi mate turn dates and Bradley model turn dates, as well as unique developments such as the Hindenburg Omen provide satellite maps of potential market storms and clearings approaching, beyond the vision of our trading/investing indicators. To invest or trade off of these over-the-horizon tools is usually a mistake, especially if the positions taken are in conflict with the STI, DP/SP, or key trend-finder indicators.

Here are the results of our Secondary Trend Indicator over the past five years in the chart that follows:

Secondary Trend Indicator Performance
Signal	Date of Signal	S&P 500 at time of Signal	Date Trend Ended (Furthest Move)	S&P 500 at end of trend (FirstExit)	Price Move in Direction of Signal	Last Date Signa lHeld	S&P 500 at Signal’s End	Price Gain at Final Exit
Buy	12/16/2010	1242.87	1/27/2011	1299.54	56.67	1/28/2011	1276.34	33.47
Buy	12/2/2010	1221.53	12/14/2010	1241.59	20.06	12/14/2010	1241.59	20.06
Sell	11/12/2010	1199.21	11/16/2010	1178.34	20.87	11/17/2010	1178.59	20.62
Buy	9/1/2010	1080.29	11/5/2010	1225.85	145.56	11/11/2010	1213.54	133.25
Sell	8/19/2010	1075.63	8/26/2010	1047.22	28.41	8/31/2010	1049.33	26.3
Buy	7/22/2010	1093.7	8/9/2010	1127.79	34.09	8/10/2010	1121.06	27.36
Sell	6/16/2010	1114.61	7/2/2010	1022.58	92.03	7/12/2010	1078.75	35.86
Sell	5/18/2010	1120.8	6/7/2010	1050.47	70.33	6/14/2010	1089.63	31.17
Buy	11/3/2009	1045.41	4/23/2010	1217.28	171.87	5/17/2010	1136.94	91.53
Buy	12/26/2008	872.8	10/19/2009	1097.91	225.11	10/27/2009	1063.41	190.61
Sell	10/2/2008	1114.28	11/20/2008	752.44	361.84	12/24/2008	865.42	248.86
Sell	6/17/2008	1350.93	7/15/2008	1214.91	136.02	7/29/2008	1263.19	87.74
Buy	4/24/2008	1388.82	5/19/2008	1426.63	37.81	6/9/2008	1361.76	-27.06
Sell	3/6/2008	1304.34	3/7/2008	1273.37	30.97	4/16/2008	1365.56	-61.22
Buy	2/11/2008	1339.13	2/26/2008	1381.29	42.16	3/3/2008	1331.24	-7.89
Sell	12/13/2007	1488.41	1/22/2008	1310.5	177.91	1/31/2008	1378.55	109.86
Sell	11/2/2007	1509.65	11/26/2007	1407.22	102.43	11/29/2007	1469.72	39.93
Buy	8/21/2007	1447.12	10/9/2007	1565.15	118.03	10/18/2007	1540.08	92.96
Sell	7/18/2007	1546.17	8/15/2007	1406.7	139.47	8/20/2007	1445.51	100.66
Buy	6/27/2007	1506.34	7/13/2007	1552.5	46.16	7/17/2007	1549.37	43.03
Buy	6/13/2007	1515.67	6/15/2007	1532.91	17.24	6/25/2007	1497.74	-17.93
Buy	3/8/2007	1401.89	6/4/2007	1539.18	137.29	6/5/2007	1530.95	129.06
Buy	8/16/2006	1295.43	2/20/2007	1459.68	164.25	2/28/2007	1406.82	111.39
Sell	5/10/2006	1322.85	7/17/2006	1234.49	88.36	8/15/2006	1285.57	37.28
Buy	3/10/2006	1281.58	4/5/2006	1311.56	29.98	4/10/2006	1296.62	15.04
Buy	12/21/2005	1262.79	2/27/2006	1294.12	31.33	3/3/2006	1287.23	24.44

The chart shows the initial date of a new signal, either buy or sell, in our Secondary Trend Indicator, then measures the price move in the S&P 500 in the direction of that signal to the date the trend ended. You can see this indicator found a ton of S&P 500 price movement for most of the significant trends over the past five years. There were occasions when a false signal was generated (which are not included in this chart but occurred between ending and beginning trend dates shown), but in those instances, that signal was quickly reversed. But once a meaningful trend started, this indicator was on board very soon thereafter and rode it most of the way.

The Secondary Trend Indicator is a momentum indicator, just like our key trend-finder indicators (the Purchasing Power Indicator, 30 Day Stochastic, and 14 Day Stochastic) and Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicators are. We believe strongly that momentum rules markets, thus traders and market timing investors should include momentum indicators in their transaction decision-making process. Momentum catches the powerful mass psychological mood of market participants as well as the unexpected deep pockets intervention that can seem to move markets in bizarre ways and come out of nowhere. Because the STI is a momentum indicator, it will remain on the same signal for a short period of time (usually a few days) after a trend had ended and a new trend is starting. That is because it simply needs the time to gauge when momentum has turned in a powerful way in the opposite direction, versus the possibility that a trend-turn is weak, is a fake-out, and not deserving of a signal change.

But here is what is exciting about this particular indicator. If you were not smart enough to know precisely when the apex of the move occurred, if you were not clairvoyant, and you rode this STI until it changed its signal, you still were able to capture a significant number of S&P 500 points most of the time. In other words, it provides an exit signal, albeit coming slightly after the trend has concluded. In a perfect world, exits come at the furthest point of a trend’s move, however that is very difficult to pinpoint most of the time. Exiting is in the eye of the beholder, dependent upon risk appetite, experience, and financial position. Some traders/market-timers exit based upon achievement of a targeted profit level. Others raise stops, hope they do not get stopped out (usually do, more often than not when least desired on a whiplash move) until greater profits are realized, while others ride an indicator until it changes its signal. The problem with the last approach, riding an indicator, is you can lose all your profits if the market turns faster than the signal does. So, if the decision is to ride an indicator and exit on a signal change, that indicator needs to be highly sensitive to a developing trend change. In our experience, most indicators flunk that test. However, based upon the results of the past five years, interestingly, the STI has done a fairly good job of providing a ride’em cowboy exit signal. Not perfect, but the furthermost column on the right shows those results, which are not bad in most cases. We are not recommending any particular exit strategy, as again, that is up to the trader/market-timer and their financial advisor. But we did want you to have the information on this STI for you to consider in your transaction decision-making.

If this is all too much for you, we consider the performance of the Secondary Trend Indicator, our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators, our Demand Power/Supply Pressure indicators and certain relevant backdrop indicators and market patterns in our new Platinum Trading Service, now available at www.technicalindicatorindex.com.

Over-the-horizon, we remain on high alert based upon Elliott Wave count, phi mate turn dates, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Full Stochastics, contrary readings from overly Bullish investor and advisor sentiment readings, Bearish Divergences between the 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicators for the NYSE, NDX and RUT versus prices, a confirmed Hindenburg Omen from December on the clock, and pattern. This is a high risk Bearish set up. Once momentum turns down sufficiently to trigger our STI and key trend-finder indicators, we will be convinced a multi-week decline has started.

We recommend that trial subscribers visit our Glossary button at the left of the home page, as well as our other Guest Articles, especially the article regarding our Primary Trend Indicator, which is a major component of our “key trend-finder” indicator.

Available now, McHugh’s exclusive Platinum Trading Service.

Check out our Standard Subscription Specials at the Subscribe Today button at www.technicalindicatorindex.com.

We cover a host of indicators and patterns, and present charts for most major markets in our International and U.S. Market reports, available to subscribers at www.technicalindicatorindex.com

If you would like to follow us as we analyze precious metals, mining stocks, and major stock market indices around the globe, you can get a Free 30 day trial subscription by going to www.technicalindicatorindex.com and clicking on the Free Trial button at the upper right of the home page. We prepare daily and expanded weekend reports, and also offer mid-day market updates 3 to 4 times a week for our subscribers.

John 6: 35, 38, 40

Data-Based Indicators, Market Indicators, Markets | No Comments

We Get An Official Confirmed Hindenburg Omen On December 15th, 2010

Written by R. McHugh
December 16th, 2010 at 12:12 pm

So what is a Hindenburg Omen? It is the alignment of several technical factors that measure the underlying condition of the stock market — specifically the NYSE — such that the probability that a stock market crash occurs is higher than normal, and the probability of a severe decline is quite high. This Omen has appeared before all of the stock market crashes, or panic events, of the past 25 years. All of them. No panic sell-off (greater than 15 percent) occurred over the past 25 years without the presence of a Hindenburg Omen. Another way of looking at it is, without a confirmed Hindenburg Omen, we are pretty safe. But we have an official Hindenburg Omen as of August 20th, 2010.

We got a second official confirmed Hindenburg Omen observation Wednesday, December 15th, 2010 after getting a first observation Tuesday, December 14th, 2010, meaning we are now on the clock watching for a stock market crash, and at the very least a significant decline. There is a much higher than normal probability of a stock market crash starting sometime over the next four months. All criteria were met Tuesday and Wednesday, December 14th and 15th, 2010. December 14th’s observation saw 179 NYSE New 52 Week Highs, and 113 NYSE New 52 Week Lows according to the Wall Street Journal, the lower of the two coming in at 3.58 percent, above the 2.2 percent threshold required for a Hindenburg Omen observation. Total NYSE issues traded were 3,158. New Highs were not more than twice New Lows, the McClellan Oscillator was negative at negative -16.23, and the 10 Week Moving Average is rising. The second observation on December 15thth has occurred within the required 36 day period necessary for a cluster (two or more observations) to occur. December 15th’s observation saw 156 NYSE New 52 Week Highs, and 89 NYSE New 52 Week Lows according to the Wall Street Journal, the lower of the two coming in at 2.83 percent, above the 2.2 percent threshold required for a Hindenburg Omen observation. Total NYSE issues traded were 3,143. New Highs were not more than twice New Lows, the McClellan Oscillator was negative at negative -68.80, and the 10 Week Moving Average is rising.

Now that we have a second observation, we have an official confirmed Hindenburg Omen. This is the first Hindenburg Omen since August 2010, and only the second since 2008, which of course led to the massive stock market crash in the autumn 2008, and the fourth since the Bear Market started in 2007 (we got one in 2007, one in 2008 and two here in 2010). We got crashes after both the October 2007 and June 2008 Hindenburg Omens.

The way Peter Eliades put it in his Daily Update, September 21, 2005 (www.stockcycles.com), “The rationale behind the indicator is that, under normal conditions, either a substantial number of stocks establish new annual highs or a large number set new lows — but not both.” When both new highs and new lows are large, “it indicates the market is undergoing a period of extreme divergence — many stocks establishing new highs and many setting new lows as well. Such divergence is not usually conducive to future rising prices. A healthy market requires some semblance of internal uniformity, and it doesn’t matter what direction that uniformity takes. Many new highs and very few lows is obviously bullish, but so is a great many new lows accompanied by few or no new highs. This is the condition that leads to important market bottoms.”

A brief history on the origin and evolution of the Hindenburg Omen signal: It was originally adopted by Jim Miekka, editor and publisher of The Sudbury Bull and Bear Report, derived from a New High – New Low indicator developed by Gerald Appel many years ago. Because it signals the possibility of a stock market crash, my good friend, the late Kennedy Gammage, a terrific technical analyst in his own right, dubbed it the Hindenburg Omen after the famous ill-fated aircraft associated with the word “crash.”

How has this signal performed over the past 25 years, since 1985? The traditional definition of a Hindenburg Omen is that the daily number of NYSE New 52 Week Highs and the Daily number of New 52 Week Lows must both be so high as to have the lesser of the two be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day. However, this is just condition number one. The traditional definition had two more filters: That the NYSE 10 Week Moving Average is also Rising, which we consider met if it is higher than the level at any time during the previous 10 weeks (condition # 2), and that the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day (condition # 3). We calculate these measures each evening at www.technicalindicatorindex.com using Wall Street Journal figures for consistency. We consider the Wall Street Journal’s data as “official.” Critics have taken this Hindenburg Omen definition and pointed rightly to several failed Omens. But if we add two more filters, our proprietary research finds that the correlation to subsequent severe stock market declines is remarkable. Condition # 4 requires that New 52 Week NYSE Highs cannot be more than twice New 52 Week Lows, however it is okay for New 52 Week Lows to be more than double New 52 Week Highs. Our research found that there were two incidences where the first three conditions existed, but New Highs were more than double New Lows, and no market decline resulted. There were no instances noted where if 52 Week Highs were more than double New Lows, while the first three conditions were met, that a severe decline followed. So condition # 4 becomes a critical defining component.

The fifth condition we found important for high correlation is that for a confirmed Hindenburg Omen, in other words for it to be “official,” there must be more than one signal within a 36 day period, i.e., there must be a cluster of Hindenburg Omens (defined as two or more) to substantially increase the probability of a coming stock market plunge. Our research noted eight instances over the past 25 years — using the first four conditions — where there was just one isolated Hindenburg Omen signal over a thirty-six day period. In seven of the eight instances, no sharp declines followed. In only one instance did a sharp subsequent sell-off occur based upon a non-cluster single Omen, but in that case it was incredibly close to having a cluster of two Omens as the previous day’s McClellan Oscillator just missed being negative by a few points. We included this instance in our data that follows.

So to recap, we have an unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen if the first four conditions are met, but the fifth is not — in other words we only have one signal within a 36 day period. Once a second or more Omen occurs, we then have a confirmed Hindenburg Omen signal with substantially higher odds that a subsequent stock market plunge is coming.

Our research noted that plunges can occur as soon as the next day, or as far into the future as four months. In either case, the warning is useful. It just means, if you want to play the short side after a confirmed signal, or move out of harms way, you must be prepared to see it happen as soon as the next day, or four months from now, possibly after you forgot about it. About half occurred within 41 days.

Based upon the five parameters noted above, here’s what we found: Confirmed Hindenburg Omens are very rare. There have been only 28 confirmed Hindenburg Omen signals over the past 25 years. December 2010′s is the 29th. This is amazing when you consider that during that time span, there were roughly 6,400 trading days. Of those 6,400 trading days where it was possible to generate a confirmed official Hindenburg Omen, only 197 (3.1 percent) generated one, clustering into 28 confirmed potential stock market crash signals.

If we define a crash as a 15% decline, of the previous 28 confirmed Hindenburg Omen signals, eight (28.5 percent ) were followed by financial system threatening, life-as-we-know-it threatening stock market crashes. Three (10.7 percent) more were followed by stock market selling panics (10% to 14.9% declines). Four more (14.3 percent) resulted in sharp declines (8% to 9.9% drops). Six (21.4 percent) were followed by meaningful declines (5% to 7.9%), five (17.8 percent) saw mild declines (2.0% to 4.9%), and two (7.1 percent) were failures, with subsequent declines of 2.0% or less. Put another way, there is a 28 percent probability that a stock market crash — the big one — will occur after we get a confirmed (more than one in a cluster) Hindenburg Omen. There is a 39.2 percent probability that at least a panic sell-off will occur. There is a 53.5 percent probability that a sharp decline greater than 8.0 % will occur, and there is a 74.9 percent probability that a stock market decline of at least 5 percent will occur. Only one out of roughly 14 times will this signal fail.

All the biggies over the past 25 years were preceded and identified by this signal (as defined with our five conditions). It was on the clock just before the stock market crash of the autumn of 2008. It was present and accounted for a few weeks before the stock market crash of 1987, was there three trading days before the mini crash panic of October 1989, showed up at the start of the 1990 recession, warned about trouble a few weeks prior to the L.T.C.M and Asian crises of 1998, announced that all was not right with the world after Y2K, telling us early 2000 was going to see a precipitous decline. The Hindenburg Omen gave us a three month heads-up on 9/11 (2001), and told us we would see panic selling into an October 2002 low, warned in October 2007 that a multi-month 16 percent plunge was about to start, from the DJIA’s all-time high. And it was on the clock three months before the stock market crash of the autumn 2008 into spring 2009 that wiped out 47.3 percent of the stock market’s value. Our subscribers at www.technicalindicatorindex.com were informed immediately as these signals were generated.

Here’s the data for all Hindenburg Omens over the past 25 years:

Date of first Hindenburg Omen Signal	# of Signals In Cluster	DJIA Subsequent % Decline	Time Until Decline Bottomed

12/14/2010	2	Watching	Watching
8/12/2020	6	3.7%	15 days
6/6/2008	6	47.3%	276 days
10/16/2007	9	16.3%	99 days
6/13/2007	8	7.1%	64 days
4/7/2006	9	7.0%	34 days
9/21/2005 (1)	5	2.2%	22 days
4/13/2004 (2)	5	5.4%	30 days
6/20/2002	5	15.8%	30 days
6/20/2002	5	23.9%	112 days
6/20/2001	2	25.5%	93 days
3/12/2001	4	11.4%	11 days
9/15/2000	9	12.4%	33 days
7/26/2000	3	9.0%	83 days
1/24/2000	6	16.4%	44 days
6/15/1999	2	6.7%	122 days
2/22/1998 (3)	2	0.2%	1 day
7/21/1998	1	19.7%	41 days
12/11/1997	11	5.8%	32 days
6/12/1996	3	8.8%	34 days
10/09/1995	6	1.7%	1 day
9/19/1994	7	8.2%	65 days
1/25/1994	14	9.6%	69 days
11/03/1993	3	2.1%	2 days
12/02/1991	9	3.5%	7 days
6/27/1990	17	16.3%	91 days
11/01/1989	36	5.0%	91 days
10/11/1989	2	10.0%	5 days
9/14/1987	5	38.2%	36 days
7/14/1986	9	3.6%	21 days

(1) In September 2005, the Fed pumped $148 billion in liquidity from the first week in September, just before the Hindenburg Omens were generated — to the third week of October, an 11 percent annual rate of growth in M-3 (2.5 times the rate of GDP growth and 5 times the reported inflation rate), to stave off a crash. The liquidity held the market to a 2.2 percent decline from the initiation of the signal.

(2) In April 2004, the Fed pumped $155 billion in liquidity from the last week in April — right after the Hindenburg Omens were generated — to the third week of May, a 22 percent annual rate of growth in M-3, to stave off a crash. Even with the liquidity, the market still fell 5.0 percent.

(3) The 12/23/1998 signal barely qualified, as the McClellan Oscillator was barely negative at -9, and New Highs were nearly double New Lows. Had this weak signal not occurred, condition # 5 would not have been met. This skin-of-the-teeth confirmation may be why it failed. It says something for having multiple, strong confirming signals.

Another point to make here is that the actual stock market declines are often greater than the measures in the prior data chart. That’s because oftentimes the decline from a top has already occurred before the Hindenburg Omens have been generated. These percent declines are only measuring the declines from the first Omen in a cluster. If we measured declines from the tops, it would be worse in many cases. For example, the September 2005 signals came after the September 12th high of 10,701. The autumn decline of 2005 into October 13th, 2005 bottom ended up being 545 points (5 percent) even with all the liquidity pumping by the Fed.

Here’s something interesting: Oftentimes equities will rally after a Hindenburg Omen occurs, faking folks out, then the plunge comes on the other side of the hilltop. 1987 is a perfect example of that.

Another observation is that once you get two solid Hindenburg Omens in a cluster, the probability of a severe decline does not seem to increase as more Omens occur within the cluster. Sometimes a two signal cluster produced a worse decline than a 5, 11, or 17 signal cluster. But what can be said about multiple signal clusters is that the warnings are being given further out in time, keeping us on the alert. More signals also assure us a greater likelihood of better quality signals, which seems to matter. Multiple signals are telling us things are not getting better, that something continues to remain wrong with the market.

What does it mean for traders and investors when we get a confirmed Hindenburg Omen? This is really important to understand. A confirmed Hindenburg Omen is not a guarantee of a stock market crash. The odds of a crash based upon the history since 1985 is 28.5 percent. That means the odds we will not have a crash are quite high, at 71.5 percent. However, since a stock market crash is akin to economic death in many circles, you can look at the situation like this. If you were hearing from your doctor that the surgury you are contemplating stands a 30 percent chance of you dying, that becomes a very high percentage probability – one you likely do not want to take if the surgury is not absolutely necessary. A 30 percent probability of a stock market crash is extremely high when you consider that there have been only eight over the past twenty-five years, and the normal odds of a crash happening randomly are only about one-tenth of one percent. You now also have to factor that the Fed is pumping liquidity to prevent crashes once these signals occur. So you do not want to go short the farm. You may want to think about taking prudent precautionary action according to your investment advisor given the much higher than normal odds of a crash. That may not mean shorting. It may mean increasing cash positions or hitting the sidelines for a while. Or it may mean a carefully constructed shorting strategy developed with your advisor that limits losses, and invests only the amount which you can afford to lose. Still, it is interesting that even with the heavy liquidity the Fed has been pumping around the time of the past two signals, the odds of a 5 percent decline or more remain pretty high at 74.9 percent.

We do not think it is wise to listen to folks who minimize the risk in markets pointed out by the Hindenburg Omen. We disagree with the argument that since so many of the listings on the NYSE, especially those of the New High “stock” group recorded for the Omen, are some type of Fixed Income product (ETFs, preferred stocks, etc) that the Omen isn’t really capturing “stocks” when it says “we got x % New Stock Highs,” therefore the Omen is irrelevant. Our position is that the argument that the “stock market Omen” isn’t measuring the internals of the “stock” market is false. Here is why: A huge percent of NYSE stocks are financials, banking firms, and include firms such as General Electric which is essentially a financial firm, although many people would not think of them that way. Financial firms hold substantial positions in bonds. Almost every bank listed on the NYSE carries a fixed income bond portfolio somewhere between 15 and 30 percent of their entire balance sheet, and have for years, going back far beyond the past 25 years of our research, a period of time when the Hindenburg Omen worked just fine, thank you very much. Bond and other fixed income products are prevalent throughout the distribution of companies listed NYSE, and have been for years. This Omen has worked for at least the past 25 years. It accurately called the stock market crashes of 2007 and 2008 when the NYSE included many stocks holding significant positions in fixed income instruments. It does not matter. Our entire economy has essentially moved from a manufacturing base to a financial base. This makes the Hindenburg Omen relevant. We believe it would be unwise to ignore this potential stock market crash warning.

Coming in January 2011, McHugh’s exclusive Platinum Trading Service. Follow us as we make up to 30 trades per year, all for the low price of $2,995. We tell you what we buy, when and at what price, and when we sell, and at what price. We will post trading alerts at the top of our home page and send emails to members within 15 minutes of our trades, and post details at our Trading Service button at the home page. We plan to make money playing both rising and falling trends in 2011. Why not join us? Email us now with questions and comments at www.technicalindicatorindex.com

Check out our Winter Specials, including our Superspecial 8 months for $169, a 4 months offering for only $89, a 13 months for only $259, or 2 years for only $459 at www.technicalindicatorindex.com. If you are enjoying your subscription, please tell a friend.

For a Free 30 day Trial Subscription, go to www.technicalindicatorindex.com and click on the button at the upper right of the Home Page.

“You know of Jesus of Nazareth, how God anointed Him
with the Holy Spirit and with power, and how He went about
doing good, and healing all who were oppressed by the devil;
for God was with Him.
And we are witnesses of all the things He did both in the land
of the Jews and in Jerusalem.
And they also put Him to death by hanging Him on a cross.
God raised Him up on the third day, and granted that He
should become visible.
Of Him all the prophets bear witness that through His name
everyone who believes in Him receives forgiveness of sins.”

Acts 10:38-40, 43

If you are a trader, we offer market timing signals.
If you are a conservative long-term investor, we manage
our Conservative Balanced Investment Portfolio,
and publish our transactions on a regular basis.

Commentary, Data-Based Indicators, Market Indicators, Market Sentiment, Markets | No Comments

The Jobs Picture Continues to Worsen

Written by R. McHugh
November 6th, 2010 at 7:03 pm

By Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

November 6th, 2010

Let’s look at some of the Fundamentals of the economy which eventually leak into the market at some future equilibrium price in the future:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the Labor Department, announced Friday, November 5th the results of their employment survey and statistics for the month of October 2010. Using just their numbers, they reported that non-farm payrolls rose 151,000 in October. However, they goosed this figure by 61,000 make believe, guestimated, assumed, non-counted fictitious jobs they presume were created by new businesses they think started up, net of businesses that closed down. That brings the non-farm payroll figure down to 90,000. But, of that 90,000 reported new jobs, 35,000 were in temporary service jobs. So, if we take that figure out, we are down to 55,000 new jobs created in October. However, the U.S. needs to create 150,000 new jobs every month just to accommodate population growth, which means that once again, job creation fell short by 95,000 in October. In other words, the employment picture got worse.

The BLS reported that the unemployment rate, by their convoluted calculations, remained at 9.6 percent, 14.8 million good folks out of work. However, they purposely chose to not count 2.6 million unemployed folks who wanted work, looked for full time work within the past 12 months, but did not look during the most recent 4 weeks for one reason or another. For 1.2 million of those 2.6 million, the reason was they were so discouraged, they figured, “why bother.” The BLS 9.6 percent figure would have risen to 11.28 percent by including those 2.6 million, no arguing the truth there. That is really the number that should be reported. But worse, the BLS does not count the underemployment rate. There were 9.2 million folks who wanted to work full time, but were denied that opportunity involuntarily, by having their full time hours cut back, or by settling for a part-time job while they continue their search for full time work. If we add those good folks to the unemployment ranks, we find that the underemployment rate was 17.2 percent. That means more than one out of every six employable people were either unemployed or stuck in a part-time job when they wanted full time work.

Then there is the immeasurable group of folks who have full-time work, but in a job that is below their skill level, and at a pay rate below what they had in previous full-time work. Add to them those who have full time work on salary (do not qualify for hourly overtime pay), but work more hours now than they did before to cover the responsibilities of fellow workers who got laid off, but also did not get a salary increase. Not sure how many of these good folks are out there, burning out, giving up quality of life just to keep their jobs. Then there are those who have full time work, but have not been given raises because their employers suggested they be happy at their current wage or else they will be replaced by someone else willing to work the same job for less. Call this entire paragraph the “quality of work” work decline, which I do not believe anyone has a handle on. But if you talk with friends and neighbors, empirically there are a ton of folks in this category, a category whose numbers have increased dramatically since the Bear Market started.

All this adds up to an employment picture that is grim, and getting worse. The impact of course is on consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of GDP. The only solution out of this mess is a massive income tax rebate and tax cut, placing the QE2 Dollars the Fed is printing, into the hands of households, and not Wall Street where QE2 is going. If households got the money, they would lower their debts, and increase their spending. That increase in spending would boost small business revenues. Small businesses (who are responsible for 70 percent of hiring) would then start hiring to handle the increase in sales. Small businesses would then spend more, boosting sales of large corporations. Large corporations would then add jobs and go to Wall Street for capital. Wall Street’s profits would grow from investment banking operations, rather than the Trading accounts QE2 are designed to goose. At every level, government tax revenues would get a piece of the action. Voila, prosperity for all!

If I were king, this is what I would do. I would cancel QE2, as that will have no positive impact on the economy or employment. I would then do QE3, a one time only event. It would be designed to choke start a dead economy and deteriorating employment picture that will eventually lead to a Great Depression.

I would have the U.S. Treasury issue at least $5.0 trillion of new Treasury note securities, short to intermediate term, up to 5 years in maturity. This term is chosen because this economic “trickle up” plan would reap returns to the Treasury in the form of massive tax revenues by year five without the necessity to raise income tax rates, rather while actually lowering income tax rates, when this debt could be retired. I would then sell these $5.0 trillion of securities in the open market, with the Federal Reserve as buyer of last resort, providing demand if necessary. Even if the Fed buys all of these securities, it is okay because the Treasury will be retiring them within five years anyway from the increase in tax revenues it will accrue from a growing and prospering economy.

Then I would take that $5.0 trillion and rebate 1 to 2 years of income taxes to households (not businesses), with a minimum rebate of $25,000 since many folks were unemployed and do not have income over the past two years. Small businesses would end up getting the rebate because there are many who file subchapter S returns that flow to household tax returns. I would then require that half the rebate be used to pay down debt. This would result in stronger financial balance sheets for households and lending institutions. Banks getting their loans repaid would see their non-performing assets decline, and see their loan portfolios decline. That would improve their capital ratios and their liquidity. In conjunction with improved household financial positions, this would put banks in the mood to be accommodative in lending practices, which would help the economy. This would strengthen the FDIC’s reserve position as fewer banks would fail.

Households would then take the rest of the money, and feel more confident about the future, and likely spend on items they have been holding back on due to necessary austerity. This would boost small business sales, which would result in job creation to accommodate the increase in sales. This would increase small business’ demand for the products and services of large corporations. Large corporations would then turn to Wall Street firms for capital and loans, boosting Wall Street’s profits, not from Trading schemes courtesy of the Fed, but from growth in aggregate demand, the economy. Local, State and Federal government entities would get a piece of the action at each level, increasing their tax revenues, allowing them to retire debt and increase infrastructure spending which would create more jobs.

This results is prosperity for all, a growing pie, growing aggregate demand. With the increase in tax revenues, the Treasury then retires the $5.0 trillion of newly issued debt that kick-started this economic recovery plan. The Fed sells its securities back to the Treasury, and the U.S. Dollar retains its value.

This will not happen, because both political parties seem intent on solving economic problems with a top-down approach, where they give trillions of Dollars printed out of thin air to Wall Street who then take the money and earn increased Trading Account profits with mega-purchases and profit-taking sales of stocks and other financial instruments, like some wealthy drunk at the casinos. A great deal of this money will get destroyed, disintegrate at a coming stock market plunge, and the wealthy Wall Street Trading machine will end up leaving the gambling table broke once again, with all the money from the Fed gone for good, leaving a trail of a devalued Dollar, rising unemployment, falling home prices, failing banks and businesses, bankrupt families – the next Great Depression. That will lead the Central Planner’s to the bright idea where sovereign nations merge into a new Union of Western States, including North America and Europe, in an attempt at one world government they falsely hope will fix the mess they created. Unfortunately this is probably the path we are on.

Check out our Subscription Specials at the Subscribe Today button at www.technicalindicatorindex.com .

We cover a host of indicators and patterns, and present charts for most major markets in our International and U.S. Market reports, available to subscribers at www.technicalindicatorindex.com

“Jesus said to them, “I am the bread of life; he who comes to Me

shall not hunger, and he who believes in Me shall never thirst.

For I have come down from heaven,

For this is the will of My Father, that everyone who beholds

the Son and believes in Him, may have eternal life;

and I Myself will raise him up on the last day.”

John 6: 35, 38, 40

Commentary, Economic Statistics, Market Indicators, Market Sentiment, Markets | No Comments

Quantitative Easing 2 is a Bad Idea

Written by R. McHugh
October 17th, 2010 at 7:29 pm

Friday’s internals were weak, in spite of being a mixed market. The NASDAQ 100 had a huge price move up, but a significant chunk of the price gain came from one stock, Google. Google rose $60.52 per share, or 11.10 percent, in one day, Friday. Google is one of those stocks that a market manipulator can buy to move an index in the hopes it starts bandwagon buying. During the 2003 and 2006 rallies, we saw MMM move the Industrials with bizarre isolated rising price days. At the time, it appeared to us a market manipulator was moving the Industrials higher with 3M purchases. From time to time we see concerted efforts to push markets higher. Now is one of those times. But each time this happens, it causes the subsequent decline to be worse than would otherwise have been the case, like stretching a rubber band too far. The snapback is nasty. Deep pockets can only delay the inevitable. They cannot stop it. Quantitative Easing talk is raising expectations for liquidity infusions that people think will seep into stock markets. Hedge funds are buying stocks ahead of the actual Quantitative Easing from the Fed. QE2 is simply a fancy name for the Federal Reserve printing U.S. Dollars and buying fixed income securities from large Wall Street firms, buying junk bonds, corporate bonds, mortgage backed securities or Treasuries. It is essentially a fraud on U.S. Dollar holders, is a fraud on the taxpaying U.S. Consumer and Small Business, a fraud on the working person who has to get his money through hard labor. We will discuss this further later, and why this policy will destroy what is left of this fragile economy, and will eventually help drive stock market values down toward zero, and drive the U.S. Dollar down toward 40ish. QE2 is wonderful for large Wall Street firms’ short-term profits. They love it. Imagine having a business where the Federal Reserve is interested in helping you make as much money as possible at the expense of everyone else? That is QE2.

We learned Friday that the U.S. Federal Deficit for the Fiscal Year Ending September 30th, 2010, was $1.3 trillion. With a total Federal Budget of $3.5 trillion, this means that for every dollar spent by the Federal Government, they had to borrow 37 cents to cover that expense. Can you imagine running your household or small business like that? You would go bankrupt in short order.

Quantitative Easing will some day be looked back upon as we now look at healing the sick through bleeding back in the 1700s. It is terrible economic policy, in fact should be considered criminal activity. Criminal for many reasons, such as debasing the value of the Dollar, but more importantly because it will be the final nail that destroys our economy. Wall Street is the key beneficiary. Households (consumers) which account for 70 percent of GDP, and small businesses, which account for 70 percent of employment, will not benefit from this fraudulent activity by the Federal Reserve. Where on earth is it right for someone to print trillions of Dollars out of thin air and then buy legitimate legally binding debt instruments in exchange for this printed paper? Anyone else doing this would be arrested and thrown in jail, with the key tossed into the deep blue sea.

But forgetting that this is probably a criminal act, and assuming that it is legally acceptable because the Central Planners enact legislation to permit QE2, let’s explore why it is a fraud on pretty much everyone except the sellers of the fixed income securities the Fed will be buying, primarily mega Wall Street firms, surrogates for the president’s Working Group (the Plunge Protection Team).

Bernanke suggested in his speech in Boston Friday on the subject of QE2, that he is justified in doing this to raise the inflation rate, which he believes is too low, and to increase employment. His economics are dead wrong. He believes it is perfectly appropriate to print trillions of dollars of U.S. Federal Reserve notes (Dollars) out of thin air, and then send this money from the Fed’s print shop across the invisible wall that separates the real economy from the non-economy (the Fed) to the lucky recipients of this cash. Here is the problem: This transfer of printed cash for securities in the market are normally known as open market operations, and the point of this exercise is to lower interest rates in the market to spur lending and filter cash through Wall Street intermediaries to banks to borrowers which would stimulate the economy and multiply the money supply in the market. However, short-term interest rates are already zero, and long-term interest rates are at historic lows. So QE2 will not reduce interest rates. Therefore it will not increase borrowing. Therefore it will not multiply the money supply or spur spending, ergo it will not improve GDP, will not help households or small businesses. The cash will simply move from the Fed to Wall Street where the mega banks can then leverage their investing and trading activities which will improve their short-term profits. There will be no trickle down benefits to households or small businesses. Without benefits to households or small businesses, there will be no improvement in spending (GDP) or employment.

What will result from QE2 is the devaluation of the U.S. Dollar as there will be too many Dollars floating around, in relation to hard assets such as precious metals, and foreign currencies. This reduces the purchasing power of Dollars, and reduces the value of cash in bank accounts. In other words, the consumer gets hurt.

The only way QE2 makes any sense at all is if it is conducted in such a way that the cash being printed by the Fed finds its way directly into the hands of households and small businesses, instead of Wall Street. The only way for this to happen is if newly issued debt from the U.S. Treasury is sold to the Fed for newly printed Dollars, and then the trillions of QE2 Dollars sent to the Treasury from the Fed are sent directly to U.S. Households in the form of a massive income tax rebate, and tax cut, with a minimum amount of $50,000 rebated to every household, since many good folks did not have jobs over the past few years to receive rebated taxes. Then half the income tax rebates, which would be ideally two years worth, would be required to pay down debt, with the other half available to be used at households’ discretion. The result would be an immediate improvement in household and bank balance sheets, and an increase in consumer spending (GDP). This would increase small business revenue, which would increase hiring, which would result in an increase in demand for large firms’ products and services, which would mean more investment banking business for Wall Street. The economy would grow, increasing the overall pie for all to share and prosper, with a resultant corresponding desirable modest level of inflation. Local, State and Federal governments would benefit immensely as they get an increase in tax revenues from the trickle up economic growth, capturing taxes at every level of spending, which can be used to reduce government deficits and debt. Stock Markets would rise as corporate revenues and profits rise.

If the intent of QE2 fails to include the household, it should not be allowed to happen. Congress must put a stop to QE2 immediately, and require a full explanation of the intended program before Bernanke destroys our economy. There should be an open debate in Congress on the merits of QE2, with testimony from all interested parties, in front of television cameras, for the American public to study before QE2 is effectuated. This is not something the Fed should conduct in secret. This is new turf, new territory for the Fed, and warrants careful scrutiny. The Justice Department needs to study if in fact the Fed is legally empowered to conduct QE2. This is serious stuff, an intentional devaluation of the U.S. Dollar, and thus needs to be treated as such. Intelligent, thoughtful contemplation is essential in an open public forum. Households and small businesses need to be able to weigh in by calling their congressional representatives before QE2 happens. QE2 should require an act of Congress. The Fed should not be allowed to do this on their own.

Unfortunately, the language of the markets, price patterns and indicators, have been warning for months that the U.S. Dollar is headed to 40ish (it knew QE2 was coming), and is telling us the stock market will react very badly once QE2 starts.

It does not look like there is any stopping QE2. The Central Planners are convinced that the more they do, the more control they take, the more they couch their activities with terminology that makes it impossible for the average Joe and Mary to understand what they are doing, the more they involve mega Wall Street firms in their fixes, the better. It is becoming very difficult to know if the Central Planners are simply misguided in their policies, that their intentions are good, that they really care about households and small businesses and the economy, or is this all an intentional game to benefit only the few large and powerful Wall Street banks, to build an oligarchy of Centralized power by design. That is for those who can figure out the schemes to decide for themselves.

The market’s language, technical analysis, suggests that regardless of intention, mistakes will be conducted, and the worst will occur.

Check out our AUTUMN Specials, good through Sunday, October 17th, 2010, including an amazing 8 months offering for only $189, or 2 years for only $459 at www.technicalindicatorindex.com. If you are enjoying your subscription, please tell a friend. We also offer a 4 months for $99 budget friendly deal this week.

We cover a host of indicators and patterns, and present charts for most major markets in our International and U.S. Market reports, available to subscribers at www.technicalindicatorindex.com

If you would like to follow us as we analyze precious metals, mining stocks, and major stock market indices around the globe, you can get a Free 30 day trial subscription by going to www.technicalindicatorindex.com and clicking on the Free Trial button at the upper right of the home page. We prepare daily and expanded weekend reports, and also offer mid-day market updates 3 to 4 times a week for our subscribers.

John 6: 35, 38, 40

Commentary, Data-Based Indicators, Economic Statistics, Market Indicators, Market Sentiment, Markets | No Comments

Trend-Channel Analysis Suggest Stocks are about to Fall

Written by R. McHugh
September 25th, 2010 at 9:25 pm

Prices have risen decisively above key resistance at the top of a Declining Trend-channel from the April 26th, 2010 top in the Industrials. This is a very important trend-channel, as both the top and bottom boundary lines are defined by at least three touch points, and the decisive breakout could mean a significant rally leg has started.

However, there is key resistance from another trend-channel, this one rising from July 1st, shown in red boundary lines. Prices could be setting an upside target of the upper boundary of this channel, 11,100ish in the Industrials. If prices rise next week, this scenario is the most likely one.

However, there is another possibility this weekend, that prices have topped precisely at key resistance at the blue rising trend-line drawn from the tops in June and August. This line has four touch points and Friday’s rally took prices precisely to this line and stopped – a fifth touch point. This argues that prices have topped and the start of a decline to at least 10,200ish is imminent.

Should prices fall decisively below the lower rising boundary line from the July 1st, 2010 low, below 10,200ish, that would be very Bearish, and suggest stocks are crashing.

I have drawn out a possible scenario where prices are forming a large Rising Bearish Wedge from July 1st, with the blue line as the upper boundary of this pattern. If this is the case, next we should see a drop to 10,250ish, followed by one more rally to 11,000ish, then a stock market crash, starting in early 2011.

Dow Jones Industrial Average from January 1, 2010

Prices have risen precisely to key resistance at the top of a Declining Trend-channel from the October 2007 top in the Industrials, and stopped. This is in addition to prices rising precisely to the blue trend-line from June 2010 and stopping there Friday. Same place, the intersection of two key upper boundary trend-channels. With prices stopping at two key trend-lines, the odds of an imminent decline are fairly high.

Should prices fail to rise above the upper boundary of the declining trend-channel from October 2007, it would mean the next decline could target the bottom boundary, which would take the Industrials down toward 5,000ish. On the other hand, a decisive rise above the upper boundary line could be quite Bullish.

Dow Jones Industrial Average from January 1, 2007

Check out our SEPTEMBER Specials, including an amazing 8 month offering for only $189, or 2 years for only $459 at www.technicalindicatorindex.com. We also offer a 4 months for $99 budget friendly deal this week.

We cover a host of indicators and patterns, and present charts for most major markets in our International and U.S. Market reports, available to subscribers at www.technicalindicatorindex.com

John 6: 35, 38, 40

Charts, Commentary, Market Indicators, Market Sentiment, Markets | No Comments

A History of Autumn Declines In the Down Industrials

Written by R. McHugh
September 19th, 2010 at 7:43 pm

The Dow Industrials have declined sharply eleven out of the past thirteen Autumns, from 1997 through 2009, and it is setting up to do so again in 2010. Only 2006 and 2009 failed to see a significant autumn fourth quarter decline.

Seven of the eleven declines were stock market crashes, with declines greater than 15 percent, and an eighth was nearly a crash, plunging 13.2 percent! The smallest decline of the eleven was still a significant 4.7 percent.

The declines typically started in the July to September period and lasted into the September to November period. Ten of the eleven significant declines were occurring over the autumn equinox, and all but one declined during the month of September.

Here’s the data:

1997: A stock market crash that began on August 7th at 8,340.14 and fell for 57 days to a low of 6,936.45 on October 28th, a 1,403.69 drop, or 16.8 percent.

1998: A stock market crash that began on July 17th at 9,412.64 and fell for 32 trading days to a low of 7,329.70 on September 1st, a 2,032.94 plunge, or 21.6 percent. It hung around that low through October 8th, hitting a bottom that day at 7,399.78.

1999: A near-crash that began on August 25th at 11,428.94 and lasted through October 15th when it fell to 9,911.42, 36 trading days, a 13.2 percent sell-off.

A History Of Autumn Declines: 2007-2010

A History Of Autumn Declines: 2005-2008

2000: Another stock market crash, this one commencing September 6th at 11,401.19 and lasting until October 18th’s 9,656.12 bottom, a 30 trading day plunge that saw prices fall 1,745.07 points, or 15.3 percent.

2001: Again, a stock market crash. It began on August 27th at 10,441.37 and lasted through September 21st, bottoming at 8,062.34, a 2,379.03, 22.7 percent bloodbath that took only 14 trading days.

2002: Again, the sixth stock market crash in a row if you consider the 13.2 percent 1999 wipeout a crash. It started innocently enough on August 22nd, at 9,077.01, and lasted until October 10th at 7,197.49. When the carnage was over, the losses were 1,879.52 points, or 20.7 percent.

2003: Even in 2003, when a glorious rally was in full swing, the Dow paused to follow tradition by dropping a measurable 4.7 percent, or 455.61 points from 9,686.08 on September 19th to 9,230.47 on September 30th.

2004: A significant 6.2 percent drop followed suit, markets in the tank from September 13th’s 10,348.39 high to October 25th’s 9,708.40 low, a 639.99 sell-off.

2005: A significant 5.8 percent drop followed the August 10th, 2005 top from 10,719.41 to October 13th, 2005′s low of 10,098.18.

A History Of Autumn Declines: 2000-2005

2006: This is only the first year out of the past thirteen years (1997 to 2009) where stocks did not experience a significant autumn decline.

2007: The current Grand Supercycle Bear Market started from October 11th, 2007′s all-time high in the Industrials of 14,279.96. A stock market crash followed over the next three months to the January 22nd, 2008 low of 11,508.74, a 19.4 percent plunge.

2008: A devastating stock market crash occurred from the August 11th, 2008 top of 11,933.55 to the November 21st, 2008 low of 7,392.27, an incredible 4,541.28 point, 38.1 percent crash.

2009: This is only the second year out of the past thirteen where stocks did not experience a significant autumn decline.

A History Of Autumn Declines: 1997-1999

So here we are in 2010. We have huge Head & Shoulders top patterns showing up in major stock markets, have an Elliott Wave count which is close to topping, and the autumn is approaching once again, so the odds are high that another sharp decline is coming sometime in the fourth quarter 2010, according to this autumn declines study of the past 13 years.

Check out our SEPTEMBER Specials, good through Sunday, September 12th, 2010, including an amazing 8 month offering for only $189, or 2 years for only $459 at www.technicalindicatorindex.com. If you are enjoying your subscription, please tell a friend. We also offer a 4 months for $99 budget friendly deal this week.

We cover a host of indicators and patterns, and present charts for most major markets in our International and U.S. Market reports, available to subscribers at www.technicalindicatorindex.com

John 6: 35, 38, 40

Commentary, Data-Based Indicators, Market Indicators, Market Sentiment, Markets | No Comments

Value of Perfect Information

Categories

Favorite Sites

Stuff

Posts by R. McHugh:

Are Stocks Staring Into the Abyss?

Making Money Trading the Market

Can The Stock Market Rally Without Bank Stocks Joining?

The Primary Trend

Trading Secondary Market Trends

We Get An Official Confirmed Hindenburg Omen On December 15th, 2010

The Jobs Picture Continues to Worsen

Quantitative Easing 2 is a Bad Idea

Trend-Channel Analysis Suggest Stocks are about to Fall

A History of Autumn Declines In the Down Industrials