Value of Perfect Information

At halftime with price on session highs the market has found some selling.
The shot of HUD shows that selling
Below the HUD a graph of money flow and price so far this session shows
the strength of the move thus far

Today’s Market Report – ES – 10/19/2009
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Today’s Numbers
No Numbers Today
Tomorrow
Building Permits, PPI, Core PPI, Housing Starts
*****
At 30 minutes before the open the first pic below shows the HUD which
reflects overnight volume at 82% of normal with a slight sell bias.
The second pic shows overnight price action with support at 1,077
and resistance at 1,089

Day Summary
Today’s price action never recovered from the strong overnight selling.
Trade was on slightly less than average volume with a notable sell bias.
Net New Trade by Commercials was -44,975 contracts.
The caveat to the recent positive price action is the continuing negative divergence
between price and net money flow as shown in the chart below.
Bon Weekend

At 2 hours before the close on an Options Expiration Friday
price remains in a narrow range with trading on slightly above
average volume and a Sell Bias. Possible action in the last hour today

Today’s Market Report – ES – 10/16/2009
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Today’s Numbers
0900 EST Net Long-Term TIC Flows
0915 Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production
0955 Mich Sentiment-Preliminary
TGIF
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At just before 0100 PST at 1,095 there was strong commercial selling
At an hour and a half before the open price is making new lows on
162% of normal volume with a very strong sell bias and
Net New Commercial Trade so far this session of -12,425 contracts

The Chart i posted on GS a few days back shows resistance in play, the trade was  over in my opinion. If you bot Goldman up here i think you could bet getting on the greedy side but its your cash. My point being if you would have bot the dip in Goldman about a month ago around 145 you would would be well positioned to take profits on this breakout. This market has shown me day in and day out buying the dips, the low print of the day seems to be the best trade, you can apply this in the macro level also. Goldman could have another 20 bucks left in it… BUT that means its 60$ away from its all time highs when things were just dandy??? WHAT nothing has changed fundamentally so this means if we get back up to say 250 by December were are gonna go to 300 by march? I don’t believe it. Happy expiration tomorrow, i think things could be a bit more active then the past 3 cycles. Remember play the cheapo OTM calls on the big boys, they could pay off if they rip this thing higher or lower.

Day Summary
Another day, Another New High
Trade was on just under average volume with a medium buy bias.
Net New Trade by Commercials was significant at +69, 198 contracts.

At 3 hours into the day session trade remains
confined to a very narrow range on slightly less than average volume
a slight buy bias and net commercial trade of only +2,700 Contracts

Here is a shot of overnight commercial commitment taken at 30 minutes before the open. Data is normalized for time of day – right axis is percent of normal.