5:40pm EST: On the SP-500 daily candles chart, notice that both raw volume and on-balance volume are increasing and are above the Jan 2010 high. This is a bullish signal of strength.
SP-500 Daily Candles (EOD):
4:45pm EST: Deja Vu. Higher highs (1148 vs 1145) and higher lows (1140 vs 1137). The SP-500 have hit my initial target area of 1145/50 for wave 1-[5]. I still think there could be some extension if wave 1-[5] into the 1160/65 area. The 1160/65 target terminates near my mid-channel line on the daily SP-500 chart. I’m thinking the wave 2-[5] pull-back my be shallow. A 38% re-trace takes us back to the Inverse Head and Shoulders neckline around 1116, but a 23% pull-back would only drop to about the key 1130/33 support area.
SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):
SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):
11:30am EST: Here’s a little bonus for the non-Alert Service subsribers. Below is my most up-to-date 5-min and 15-min charts. The PUG Alert subscribers get these updated charts a couple times per day.
SP-500 5-min Chart (11:30am):
SP-500 15-min Chart (11:30am):
8:25am EST: ES Futures were basically flat overnight. Continuing to look for more wave (5)-1-[5] extention towards the 1160 target. Financial stocks are really starting to move up and XLF is approaching a new high. This is another sign of returning strength in a bull market.
I’ve noticed most of the Perma-Bear E-Wave blogs have now come out with 9th Revision of their failed P2 Models predicting the SP-500 will advance to 1230 (62% re-trace). They have been calling for a P2 top since 870, 956, 1018, 1140, 1080, 1101, 1115, 1150… So now after 9 attempts at calling a top, the perma-bear bloggers finally have a P2 model that agrees with my P1 end point area of 1200 to 1260. Of course I have only had one model and this 1230 area has been my target since I opened this blog back in Oct 2009. And I will note that both the Nasdaq and Russel-2000 are now solidly beyond their 62% re-trace levels.
4:30pm EST: Solid consolidation day in the 1138 to 1141 area after Friday’s big run up. Not much was resolved today in determination of the near term market direction. For the pimary count, I think wave (5)-1-[5] is going to consolidate above the 1132/33 gap area and then make move towards 1150+. I have an ultimate target of about 1165 for the inverse head and shoulders on the 60-min chart. The 1167 to 1175 area is a key resistance area for the SP-500 and it will likely take a future wave 3-[5] to break through this area. Also, it’s very possilbe that wave (5)-1-[5] has ended at 1141, as the alternate count indicates, and there will be a wave 2-[5] retrace of a least 38% down to about 1105.
Next Wed March 16th is the FOMC meeting announcement and next Friday March 19th is OPEX. For the past year, both FOMC and OPEX weeks have been bullish in the early part of the week. So, if the SP-500 can hold support this week, there is a good chance that new highs in the 1160/65 area could be on the way as wave 1-[5] extends.
12:15am EST: If you like symmetry, then wave v=i at 1136 for the alternate count that has wave (5)-1-[5] ending very soon. However, any close over 1131 and I think Monday extends the run up towards 1150+. I re-calculated the wave 2-[5] fib re-tracements based on 1136 for alternate count, see the updated 15-min chart. The 2-[5] levels just keep moving up!
15-min Chart (12:45pm):
10:30am EST: The 200% short perma-bears are once again reminded what a bullish impulse feels like. This wave v-(5) extension has broken through some tough resistance between 1127 and 1133. Let’s see it can cosolidate here above 1130 and set the stage from more gains. There is also a new gap opened at 1125 this morning that could provide near term support. Updated 15-min and 60-min charts are below.
15-min Chart (10:00am EST):
60-min Chart (11:00am EST)
9:25am EST: ES Futures extended to 1131.70 peak on the Non-Farm Payroll news. Break and then close over 1131 today sets the stage for 1150+ by Tuesday March 9th. Watching the 1115/20 area on any pull-back today. A close under 1115 is bearish for next week and signals a wave 2-[5] retrace has begun.
8:15am EST: ES Futures hit 1128.4 overnight, which is a new high. Clearly wave (5)-1-[5] is extending as expected. Now is just a matter of how far it will extend before wave 2-[5] retraces back down. The first target for the extension is the wave v-(5) triangle target of about 1130/31.
SP-500 ES Futures 60-min (8:15am, pre Non-Farm Payroll):
11:15am EST: Daily Candles Chart showing 13-day EMA resistance now turned support after the bullish cross above the 34-day EMA.
Daily SP-500 Candles Chart (11:15am):
10:05am EST: It’s looking like the this wave up off 1086, wants to continue to extend. The SP-500 has hit a higher high at 1023.89 today. The Russel-2000 has all set a new 2010 high today. I think the 1127 area will get tested today.
5:30pm EST: Boring day, so it probably set the stage for an explosive next week. For the primary count I think we completed (1)-3-[5]-P1 today and will get a small pull-back for (2)-3-[5] to the 1096 area, before (3)-3-[5] gets underway in earnst next week. (3)-3-[5] should get through the tough resistance at 1115 and 1130. And 3-[5] could reach for the 1150 area in a short amount of time, before 5-[5] finishes around 1165.
For the alternate count I have decided to move c-[B] out in time to Moday and into the 1115 gap area, as I think iv-c-[B] was the drop down to 1086 yesterday and we are in v-c-[B] now with a burst up towards 1115 coming Monday. If this alternate count is correct, we will know by a hard reversal signally the start of a nasty [C] leg down to new lows. The threat of this nasty [C] leg drop is keeping a good amount bulls on the side-lines.
Have a nice weekend.
15-min Chart (EOD):
60-min Chart (EOD):
Daily Chart (EOD):
12:50pm EST: How about a large symmetrical triangle for Wave [4]? It should be made up entirely of 3’s, or A-B-C-D-E which is 3-3-3-3-3. So far it looks pretty good for A-B-C-D all being 3’s. We might be working on E right now with a touch down at about 1094/96 required before breakining out upward. One nice thing about a Wave [4] triangle is that it would alternate with the Wave [2] simple Zig-Zag or A-B-C, thus satisifying a key Elliott Wave guideline. The Wave [5] triangle target would be about 1205 on the SP-500 for Wave [5] of P1.
60-min SP-500 Triangle (12:50pm):
10:20am EST: On a postive note for the bulls, the 13-day EMA is just about ready to cross back over the 34-day EMA, which would by a buy signal for the SP-500. Notice the SP-500 bounce off the 1097 area this morning as support. Also, the Russel-2000 already had this 13 vs 34-day EMA bullish cross early this week.
SP-500 Daily 13 vs 34-day EMA Chart (10:20am):
10:05am EST: Forgetting the counts for a moment, just take a look at this SP-500 Daily Chart below. You can see that the SP-500 is once again trapped between support at 1085 and resitance 1110, same as the Nov-Dec 2009 time frame. The bounce off the 20-day SMA at 1086 yesterday indicates that is a strong support level. And of course we have not been able to decisively break back through the 1110 level since the Feb 5th low of 1045. In fact every time the 1105/1110 level is tested, the SP-500 tends to sell-off hard indicating strong resistance there.
So we must be patient and wait it out. I would say that a break of either 1085 or 1110 decisively should bring in a lot of volume and a new directional move in the markets. So be careful around these levels and protect your trade with stops.
5:00pm EST: if your a bull. So many things to get excited about if your bullish on the markets. First a 4 point gap up led to a 20 point (1.8%) bull rally today! And the gap up helped to clear critical resistance in the 1080 area. Next the 13-day EMA (1082) was shattered by this bull move today, which signals a near term trend change from bearish to bullish. Third, the MACD got a bull cross late today and the histogram bars moved into positive territory. Fourth the RSI moved up over 50. Both MACD and RSI moves were forecast from the positive divergence I spoke of yesterday and played out today. Fifth, we have a potentional “Gap-and-Go” event today. Notice the red circles on the Daily Candle Stick Chart showing what the “Gap-and-Go” event that occured in July 2009 after the 13-day EMA was broken to the upside.
Daily 13/34-day EMA Chart (EOD):
Daily Candle Chart with Indicators (EOD):
And the Leading Diagonal (LD) count on the 5-min Chart is looking quite good. The 1085/90 target for wave iii of the LD was exceeded with the move up to 1095 today. But it still fits the LD parameters. One thing that could happen is that this LD could morph into a regular 5-wave impuse up for 1-[5]-P1 without any iv-i overlap. We’ll have to watch the 1080 area close tomorrow to see if we get overlap or not. A sudden drop belore 1080 would indicate the LD is still in play. Whether or not this wave 1-[5]-P1 is a LD or just a normal channelling 5-wave impulse, the final result will be the same with new highs over 1150. I still have a target in the 1097 to 1110 area later this week. What matters is the depth of the 2-[5]-P1 retrace. So determining if it’s a LD or not is the key to estimate the depth of the retrace that will come next week. LD’s tend to retrace 62%/78% (1055/65 area) where an normal 5-wave impulse might only retrace 38%/50% (1071/77).
And of course for the bears out there (I don’t want to forget about you) there is still the altenate count (in purple) that has this wave “c of [B]” is complete or nearly complete and the big bad bear leg [C] is about to get underway with new lows below 1045. Two key retrace levels from the 1045 low were hit today at 1085 (38%) and 1096 (50%).
Oh and how’s that diamond reversal pattern looking? Hmmm….1097 d-leg target hit, check! Next a e-leg down to 1075, then new highs over 1150.
4:30 pm EST: After 3 straight weeks of declines the SP-500 managed to produce a 11 point gain on the week and closed above key support at 1075.51. The main down channel was broken yesterday and a back-test of the channel break was confirmed by a bullish bounce off of 1063 today. The SP-500 is now well position for additional gains going into options expiration (OPEX) week.
Below is my most update 5-min chart. There is a lot going on this chart. But on the bullish side (green counts), there is possible ending diagonal (ED) count for the “c of B” leg that would play out to about 1087 later next week. And on the more aggressvie bullish side the “c of B” leg could reach 1104 if it’s just a started a 5 wave impulse up and out fo the contracting triangle. On the bearish down side (red counts), there are two counts one for 4 of (5) of A with a target near 1040 and nd then there is the most aggressive bearish count that says the B-leg is over at 1080 yesterday and we are beginning the nasty C-leg down to targets in the 950 range. Finally there is a 5th count that is my alternate count (purple count) were P1 is not finished and we have a potential leading diagonal (LD) for wave 1 of [5] of P1.
Is that confusing enough for you? Things could break either way as the SP-500 is balanced are on a knife’s edge or tipping point. Have a great President’s Day Holiday weekend !
5:00pm EST: Since the short term counts are unclear, why not look at a couple big picture charts today. The first one is my bull model, that I’ve been focusing on and refining. And the second one is my bear model (yes I have one). Interestingly both models sport a possile alternate count that could produce new highs in the 1180 to 1230 range come May-June, asumming the 1029 low from Oct 2009 holds up during this current correction. The bear model is a triple ZZ (zig-zag) with the final ZZ complete at 1150 or alternately still in process, again assuming 1029 is not breched.
Daily Bear Model (EOD):
Dialy Bull Model (EOD):
4:45pm EST: Here’s the updated 15-min chart. This price action since the 1045 low has been very frustrating to count. It may have formed a large contracting triangle. And it’s at a point where it could pop to 1091 or drop to 1045. I really think it’s about 50/50 at this time. The pivot is 1068, and the key levels to watch for a break-out tomorrow are 1072 up and 1064 down. In the bears favor is that the SP-500 is still withing the pink down channel, so this correction up has not had the power to escape.
Subscribers to MortiES’ Premium Content will have access to analyses of the e-Mini S&P (ES) authored by “Mortie”. Analyses and comments will be posted at times during the day and/or night that is deemed timely by Mortie. Specific buy and sell recommendations will not be given.
Monthly subscription runs for a month from the day you subscribe, regardless of the day you start, and is not prorated.
Feb. 10, 2010: Track Record will be updated shortly
I am selecting this post for my Track Record this week because it was extremely accurate. Unfortunately, I changed my mind in mid-stream and only followed half of the analysis. A track record should show when we take wrong turns in the road also. The analysis on this post, however, was excellent and demonstrates to power of Elliott Wave analysis. For this reason, it is worth restudying.
ES 120 Minutes This chart was my top scenario on Wednesday night for the near-term trading sessions. My primary scenario is identified on the chart as a bounce to one of two targets – 1055 or 1065 – and a drop to a level below Wednesday’s close. Wave analysis was predicting that ES would break below two channel trendlines after a W4 rally. Trading Thursday was nailed with this analysis, as ES came within one point of the maximum target. Friday, ES did exactly what my analysis predicted. Unfortunately I fell in love with a channel and changed my expectation for Friday and predicted follow-through to the upside. I was wrong. I should have trusted my analysis and not my instincts.
ES 120 Min.
This chart is the updated 120 Min. chart. Let’s see what happened. A picture is worth 1,000 words.
This was a wild week of trading. So how did Mortie do? I made some calls this week that went against conventional wisdom. This week I am including in my track record, my Premium Posts for Wednesday’s and Thursday’s trading day. I am preparing this early because MailChimp, who sends the emails, is going to be down for upgrading. The following images are of commentary and charts that I posted on these two successive nights. Nobody claims to be perfect in their analysis, but see if these perspectives would have been useful in your trading.
Commentary 20Oct2009 on Premium Site
ES 60 Minutes Below is the chart that went along with the commentary above. As you can see, I was looking for a drop to 1075-76 as my primary target and 1070 as my secondary target. ES tested our resolve by rallying to within two ticks of the Globex high before heading down to fulfill our scenario. If you check your charts, you will see that ES hit the second target on my chart, the maximum-typical W4 retracement of W3, before heading up Thursday. My arrows don’t tell how long it will take to fulfill my scenarios, or what “crazy” path they might take to get there. They indicate the general direction of the market and high-probability targets. Today’s action (Friday), IMO, means we are having a complex correction. No trader can predict with certainty the actions of the market because it is all about probability. But by taking the highest probability scenarios, this Premium Site has been nailing a most of these moves. This site is for traders, not perma-bulls or perma-bears. At MortiES’ Premium Site we have experienced traders willing to pass on their trading skills to Newbies. At $1.67 a day for analysis or $2.50 a day for live commentary and interaction with other traders, you won’t find a better deal on the internet. The chart below was posted Tuesday night for Wednesday’s trading.
Commentary 21Oct2009 on Premium Site After nailing the bottom of what I was calling W4, with my secondary target, I was faced with a decision. The conventional wisdom on the internet, and among traders, was that we would see another big down-day. It was being said that this was the first down-day from a double top in many leading indices. But that didn’t fit my count. And, after all, ES hit my target for a W4. So I went with my count. After such a dramatic drop on Wednesday afternoon though, many subscribers on the Premium Site were doubting a recovery from such a severe drop. But we all held together and traded the upside. Good decision! Friday, ES decided that it wants to go higher ~ the hard way. But my upside targets remain the same. Because we don’t trade our opinions, but trade the market, we had a tough day trading today. Some of us were a little green and some a little red. We advocate the use of stops and waiting for high probability setups to present themselves.
Below is my commentary from Wednesday night’s post for Thursday’s trading day.
ES 200 Min. Globex This chart below was posted Wednesday night for Thursday’s trading day. Note the character of the consolidation I was expecting before heading up. Wave C was the big drop and it ended with a little W4 beginning. To be true to EW analysis, I expected a minimal W4 and an almost truncated W5 before a reversal of ES. Look at your own charts and review what ES did. You will see that it reversed at 1070, and looked a lot like my projected path. As I write this on Friday morning before the open of trading. ES has rallied to about 1095 during Globex. That is a good start for my scenario! But as I mention in my post Thursday night, ES is overbought and will have to work that off. Of course, it did that in dramatic fashion today. This weekend I will be analyzing the charts for an opinion on next week’s trading.
Value of Perfect Information:Perfect Information allows one to make the best decisions possible. It is not resident in any one person. I only bring a small piece of information to the table as we together seek to uncover all that can be known about this market. Your participation is valued in this quest.
I could post any day last week for an example of my track record this week, but Friday may be the most notable and informative.
Some are still not convinced of the practical use of Elliott Analysis for trading. Maybe this post will help convert the skeptical. There’s a lot of good stuff for wavers and want-2-B-wavers in this Newsletter. And, of course, some good old fashion marketing. MortiES’ Premium Site has been hitting home-runs on a regular basis. I could have picked any day last week to post this weekend, but Friday stood out as a day of large moves and counter-moves. Also, we had great interaction and commentary by the subscribers. Additionally, I was more actively involved in commentary and analysis during the day, as I was demonstrating to subscribers the power of Elliott Analysis and some fibonacci techniques.
The first chart is my premium post for the EOD Thursday. I got bold on this call for reasons explained in detail in my post, and was calling for a W3 top to this current move from 2 October.
Here is the introduction to my comment Thursday night.
And here is the chart I posted on the Premium Site.
Now let’s see what the market did on Friday in the chart below. So you know anyone else who made that call? I traded Globex and grabbed a quick 11 points before 10 am.
Not a bad call! But what about the rest of the day? How did Elliott Analysis guide us through the changing landscape? The next chart below is an intraday Globex Chart that I posted as the drop Friday was reversing off our target. I modified the count for the rebound because of the structure of the drop. It was a 5 wave impulsive move, which meant it couldn’t be the end of W4 and had to be Wave A of W4. so I gave targets for Wave B which pretty well nailed the top later in the day.
The next chart below is the Globex chart of my actual trades that I posted live on the premium site. Posting trades is not part of the deal with the Premium Site. But I will do it occasionally for teaching purposes or when it’s a real no-brainer (high probability trade). I will post changes in counts that I see and new targets during the day. When I’m busy during the day with my practice, there are other excellent traders who are posting their trades and giving excellent commentary.This site is hot! Take a look at the chart below of my actual trades that were posted live, and see if Elliott could benefit your trading account. If you had traded the predicted turning points on my analysis on Friday, you would have made 25 points. My posted trades netted 20 pts. because of 2 stop losses. And I took profits along the way while trading multiple lots. On a daily rate equivalent, this day’s analysis would have cost a whole $1.67 for your subscription. Why not try us for a month and see if its not time and money well-spent. The chart below is self-explanatory. We certainly don’t promise a fun-day like this every day, but even the boring day’s this week followed our scenarios. In fact, I called turns on these days even better than Friday, many to-the-penny. The chart below is part of my Weekend update for my premium subscribers.It is more of a review. because things got a little hectic on Friday, and some may have lost their way with all the comments being exchanged during the stress of battle. The commentary by subscribers was great! This is not a dull site like the previous one where there was almost no interaction. Review like this are useful to me as well as my subscribers. We all can learn by studying our trades! I’ve had many tell me that I’m not charging nearly enough for a subscription to the premium site. For now, I want to build a site that is second to none. I want to attract Newbies and experienced traders, and I want to see Newbies become the experienced traders of the future. For my current subscribers who also read this newsletter, I won’t be raising fees on any of you. You had faith to help me kick this off, and your support is appreciated!
So go ahead give it a try and subscribe! Click the “Sign Up” button below to get started!
This is another example of a call made by Mortie. It was a quick post before heading off for some routine medical tests. I was watching Globex during the night and had an idea what would happen at the opening. This post nailed the action for the morning and would have more than paid for a year’s subscription if traded. I can’t guarantee that all my posts will be this accurate, but we have been doing well for months now.
This is the actual post I published to the site on October 8th before the regular session opened.
This first series of charts are posts that cover the period highlighted yellow in the 3rd chart. These are posts I published at the time of significant market turns. They will give those unfamiliar with my charts and comments an idea how Mortie has performed at these important times in ES’s recent trading history. These are only the charts and not the comments that accompanied them. The charts are well annotated though, and are self-explanatory. Where there are multiple possibilities indicated by arrows, my preferred scenario was indicated. I like to include secondary market paths, so my subscribers will not be caught unprepared if my primary scenario does not work out.
This first chart is Wave A of Daily W4. The time frame is early to mid June 2009. Because this wave was impulsive (5 waves), I was expecting an ABC (Zig-Zag) Wave B to follow. See the count on the next two charts. At this point, Wave A and B were complete, and ES was in Wave C of Wave B. Specifically I was predicting a final minor W5 to complete Wave C of Wave B (red arrow). I drew the exact level I was expecting for the end of Wave B on the chart. This was hit to the penny and the market reversed, but with a crazy path that required nimble trading. It could not have been predicted by anyone!
This chart is a perfect example of how ES likes to get to an “expected” target in an “unexpected” way. My comments always include the caveat to trade the market and not your opinions. ES is trying to shake off the retail crowd before getting to its target and heading down in a Wave C. That was tough trading, but it helped to know where the market was eventually going. Arrows appear linear on the chart but we realize the market does not move in linear paths.
This chart is a daily chart that shows the section of the market we are analyzing above. I want to be sure everyone is oriented correctly. It was not a previous posting.
THE END OF DAILY WAVE 4 ~ AT THE TIME, VERY CONTRARIAN.
Here was one of my most controversial calls that went against conventional wisdom. At the time, I posted it as “MortiES’ Big Call!”
This is for orientation of the preceding post on the daily chart. It was not a previous posting.
MY LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE AFTER THE END OF W4 AS I CALLED IT BACK THEN
After my call on the end of W4, the market began a rally. It was at the point of the rally on the next chart that I was hearing that this was a retest of the Head of the H&S pattern. Most traders were calling for a downturn at this point. Look what I predicted, and how I predicted the market might move on its upward journey. Compare with the second chart, which is an up-to-date chart showing approximately the same perspective. Not bad! Will the rest of the prediction work out. Stay tuned!
And where are we today? This also was not posted, but is shown to visualize how the market behaved after posting my primary scenario.
I didn’t select these posts out because they were accurate, I selected them because they were at major turning points in the market.
Since going to a paid site, I have a smaller group following my posts. I’d rather be working closely with a couple hundred subscribers who appreciate the efforts that go into analyzing a market, than spending hours for a couple thousand who take that labor for granted. I know there are many out there who have not yet subscribed who would benefit from these analyses.
I thought that this site would appeal mostly to newbies, but I have been surprised to find that experienced traders are participating too. We have some outstanding traders on the site who are seeking to expand their trading knowledge and analytic skills. IMO, I learn as much from them as they do from me.
I don’t think any of our subscribers will complain about the analyses that we have been providing. Also, interaction and comments have increased dramatically on this site, so much so that I have to post a comment cleaner here and there and we all benefit from this. Those of you who have been following me for a while know what my performance was in the past.
Since making my posts by subscription only, we have maintained or surpassed our past performances. Would they have helped your trading? Would they have helped you the equivalent of one point on one contract?
I wanted to show those who have been following me for a while, how we have been doing with out analyses. If you are an active trader of ES, I hope you can see the value in what we offer. Of course, if you just follow the market for interests other than trading, I wouldn’t recommend that you subscribe anyway. There is nothing magical about these analyses. My goal is to be consistent, and to be right a lot more than I’m wrong. If you’ve followed me in the past, you will know I’m not a consensus taker when forming an opinion. There is a lot of hard work behind my analyses. Why not try a subscription for one month, and see if it doesn’t return your investment many times over. If it doesn’t, you can cancel your subscription.
Go ahead give my analyses a try; click on the button below!
.jpg "UrmaBlume"){kind=avatar}
This wave v-(5) extension has broken through some tough resistance between 1127 and 1133. Let’s see it can cosolidate here above 1130 and set the stage from more gains. There is also a new gap opened at 1125 this morning that could provide near term support. Updated 15-min and 60-min charts are below.
