Value of Perfect Information

4:45pm EST:   Deja Vu.  Higher highs (1148 vs 1145) and higher lows (1140 vs 1137).     The SP-500 have hit my initial target area of 1145/50 for wave 1-[5].   I still think there could be some extension if wave 1-[5] into the 1160/65 area.  The 1160/65 target terminates near my mid-channel line on the daily SP-500 chart.  I’m thinking the wave 2-[5] pull-back my be shallow.  A 38% re-trace takes us back to the Inverse Head and Shoulders neckline around 1116, but a 23% pull-back would only drop to about the key 1130/33 support area.

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

11:30am EST:  Here’s a little bonus for the non-Alert Service subsribers.  Below is my most up-to-date 5-min and 15-min charts.  The PUG Alert subscribers get these updated charts a couple times per day.

SP-500 5-min Chart (11:30am):

SP-500 15-min Chart (11:30am):

8:25am EST:  ES Futures were basically flat overnight.  Continuing to look for more wave (5)-1-[5] extention towards the 1160 target.   Financial stocks are really starting to move up and XLF is approaching a new high.  This is another sign of returning strength in a bull market.

I’ve noticed most of the Perma-Bear E-Wave blogs have now come out with 9th Revision of their failed P2 Models predicting the SP-500 will advance to 1230 (62% re-trace).  They have been calling for a P2 top since 870, 956, 1018, 1140, 1080, 1101, 1115, 1150…  So now after 9 attempts at calling a top, the perma-bear bloggers finally have a P2 model that agrees with my P1 end point area of 1200 to 1260.  Of course I have only had one model and this 1230 area has been my target since I opened this blog back in Oct 2009.   And I will note that both the Nasdaq and Russel-2000 are now solidly beyond their 62% re-trace levels.

60-min ES Futures (EOD):

Next Wed March 16th is the FOMC meeting announcement and next Friday March 19th is OPEX.  For the past year,  both FOMC and OPEX weeks have been bullish in the early part of the week.  So, if the SP-500 can hold support this week, there is a good chance that new highs in the 1160/65 area could be on the way as wave 1-[5] extends.

60-min Chart (EOD):

15-min Chart (12:45pm):

10:30am EST:  The 200% short perma-bears are once again reminded what a bullish impulse feels like.     This wave v-(5) extension has broken through some tough resistance between 1127 and 1133.  Let’s see it can cosolidate here above 1130 and set the stage from more gains.  There is also a new gap opened at 1125 this morning that could provide near term support.  Updated 15-min and 60-min charts are below.

15-min Chart (10:00am EST):

60-min Chart (11:00am EST)

9:25am EST:  ES Futures extended to 1131.70 peak on the Non-Farm Payroll news.   Break and then close over 1131 today sets the stage for 1150+ by Tuesday March 9th.   Watching the 1115/20 area on any pull-back today.  A close under 1115 is bearish for next week and signals a wave 2-[5] retrace has begun.

8:15am EST:   ES Futures hit 1128.4 overnight, which is a new high. Clearly wave (5)-1-[5] is extending as expected. Now is just a matter of how far it will extend before wave 2-[5] retraces back down. The first target for the extension is the wave v-(5) triangle target of about 1130/31.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min (8:15am, pre Non-Farm Payroll):

Health care gave lots of nice opportunities

And NAFC

Daily SP-500 Candles Chart (11:15am):

10:05am EST:  It’s looking like the this wave up off 1086, wants to continue to extend.  The SP-500 has hit a higher high at 1023.89 today.  The Russel-2000 has all set a new 2010 high today.  I think the 1127 area will get tested today.

15-min SP-500 Chart (10:00am):

Below is my most update 5-min chart.  There is a lot going on this chart.  But on the bullish side (green counts), there is possible ending diagonal (ED) count for the “c of B” leg that would play out to about 1087 later next week.  And on the more aggressvie bullish side the “c of B” leg could reach 1104 if it’s just a started a 5 wave impulse up and out fo the contracting triangle.   On the bearish down side (red counts), there are two counts one for 4 of (5) of A with a target near 1040 and nd then there is the most aggressive bearish count that says the B-leg is over at 1080 yesterday and we are beginning the nasty C-leg down to targets in the 950 range.  Finally there is a 5th count that is my alternate count (purple count) were P1 is not finished and we have a potential leading diagonal (LD) for wave 1 of [5] of P1. 

Is that confusing enough for you?     Things could break either way as the SP-500 is balanced are on a knife’s edge or tipping point.  Have a great President’s Day Holiday weekend !

5-min Chart (EOD):

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart (EOD):

Daily Bullish Model Chart (EOD):

Daily Bear Model (EOD):

Dialy Bull Model (EOD):

4:45pm EST:   Here’s the updated 15-min chart.  This price action since the 1045 low has been very frustrating to count.  It may have formed a large contracting triangle.  And it’s at a point where it could  pop to 1091 or drop to 1045.  I really think it’s about 50/50 at this time.  The pivot is 1068, and the key levels to watch for a break-out tomorrow are 1072 up and 1064 down.  In the bears favor is that the SP-500 is still withing the pink down channel, so this correction up has not had the power to escape.

15-min Chart (EOD):